Standard Chartered has reaffirmed its forecast that bitcoin will reach $100,000 by the end of 2026, arguing that the recent pressure tied to Strategy Inc. reflects a communication problem rather than a sign of financial weakness at one of the market’s largest corporate bitcoin holders.
In a research note, the bank said the selloff linked to Strategy’s preferred stock appeared to stem from uncertainty over how the company may use bitcoin as collateral and how it plans to manage cash needs. The bank said the issue was not rooted in balance-sheet instability, even after Strategy disclosed bitcoin sales that unsettled parts of the market.
The comments come as traders continue to examine Strategy’s evolving funding model. The company, best known for holding bitcoin as its primary treasury asset, has become a central reference point for the broader market because of the size of its position. Strategy currently holds 843,775 bitcoins, equal to more than 4% of bitcoin’s total supply, according to the figures cited in the bank’s note.
Strategy also holds a $2.55 billion U.S. dollar reserve, enough to cover about 17.4 months of dividend payments. Standard Chartered said that reserve provides meaningful support for the company’s financial position, even as its preferred stock has traded below par value and the company has shifted away from a model that previously relied heavily on issuing common shares.
The bank’s position is that bitcoin’s longer-term outlook remains supported by structural demand, despite short-term pressure linked to Strategy, recent spot ETF outflows and broader risk reduction across digital assets.
Strategy’s preferred stock becomes the focus
The main source of concern has been Strategy’s STRC preferred stock, which has about $10 billion in notional value outstanding. STRC fell to an intraday low of $71.25 on June 26, moving sharply below its $100 par value.
That decline followed Strategy’s June 1 disclosure that it had sold 32 BTC. While small compared with the company’s total bitcoin holdings, the sale drew outsized attention because Strategy has long been viewed as a corporate buyer and holder of bitcoin rather than a seller.
The market reaction suggested traders were not only responding to the size of the sale, but also to what it might signal. For years, Strategy’s approach was simple: raise capital, buy bitcoin and use the market value of its stock to fund further purchases. Any sign that the company might need to sell bitcoin to support preferred dividends or its cash reserve raised questions about whether that model was changing.
Standard Chartered said the downturn in STRC was largely tied to unclear messaging around the use of bitcoin as collateral and the company’s monetization policy. The bank said the preferred security continues to trade near $90, still below par but well above its June low.
Kendrick, the Standard Chartered analyst cited in the note, said the lower pricing was more closely connected to public communication than to genuine financial deterioration. He said clearer corporate updates could help reduce pressure and limit the need for additional bitcoin sales.
How Strategy’s funding model changed
Between 2020 and mid-2025, Strategy benefited from a market structure that allowed it to raise capital by issuing shares while still adding value to existing holders. Its market value compared with the value of its bitcoin holdings, often called mNAV, remained above 1.0 during that period.
When mNAV stays above 1.0, a company can issue shares at a premium to its underlying bitcoin holdings. That means the company can raise cash, buy more bitcoin and potentially increase bitcoin exposure per share without immediately weakening the value of existing equity.
That model becomes more difficult when mNAV moves closer to parity. With Strategy’s mNAV now around 1.0, the company has less room to use common share issuance in the same way. As a result, it has increasingly relied on preferred equity and other financing tools.
STRC is part of that structure. The preferred stock pays a 12% annual dividend, adjusted monthly and settled in cash twice a month. Because it is perpetual preferred stock, traders place significant weight on the company’s ability to maintain cash distributions over time.
Standard Chartered said Strategy has moved toward directly backing its perpetual preferred stock with bitcoin rather than depending on fresh common share issuance. That shift has made the company’s bitcoin reserve policy more important to the market.
Bitcoin sales raise questions
Strategy has formalized a monetization plan that allows occasional bitcoin sales to strengthen its cash reserve. Standard Chartered said the plan could potentially involve up to $1.25 billion in bitcoin sales.
The bank’s note suggested that the existence of the plan is not necessarily negative. Instead, it said market confidence depends on how clearly Strategy explains when sales may occur, how much bitcoin may be sold and how proceeds will be used.
Earlier this month, Strategy sold 3,588 BTC for about $216 million, its largest sale to date. The company used the proceeds to fund distributions and rebuild reserves.
The sale was significant because it challenged the market’s long-held perception of Strategy as a one-way bitcoin accumulator. Even though the company still owns an enormous bitcoin position, larger sales carry symbolic weight.
For traders, the central question is whether the sales represent routine treasury management or the beginning of a broader shift in Strategy’s bitcoin strategy. Standard Chartered’s view is that the sales are better understood as part of a structured liquidity plan rather than evidence that the company has lost financial flexibility.
The bank argued that clearer guidance could help stabilize STRC pricing and reduce speculation that Strategy may need to sell more bitcoin under pressure.
Balance-sheet position remains central
Strategy’s financial position is being judged through two separate lenses: its bitcoin holdings and its cash reserve.
The company’s 843,775 BTC position remains one of the largest bitcoin treasuries in the world. At the same time, its $2.55 billion cash reserve provides a buffer for dividend obligations. According to the figures cited by Standard Chartered, that reserve covers 17.4 months of distributions.
That coverage is important because preferred stock traders focus heavily on payment certainty. If traders believe a company may need to sell assets repeatedly to meet dividend obligations, preferred securities can trade at a discount. If traders believe payments are well covered, the discount can narrow.
Standard Chartered said STRC’s discount appears to reflect uncertainty rather than immediate distress. The bank said the company’s current reserve position remains substantial, while the bitcoin holdings provide a large collateral base.
Still, the market has become more sensitive to how Strategy presents its intentions. The June 1 disclosure that it had sold 32 BTC and the later sale of 3,588 BTC both showed that communication around even limited sales can affect sentiment.
Bitcoin forecast remains unchanged
Despite the concerns around Strategy, Standard Chartered maintained its $100,000 bitcoin price projection for year-end 2026. The bank said recent pressure does not change the broader case for bitcoin, including its limited supply, institutional adoption through regulated products and continued network activity.
Bitcoin traded above $64,300 on Friday, while Strategy’s stock closed near $93 on Thursday, according to the market figures cited. Those levels remain far below the bank’s 2026 target, but Standard Chartered said the recent pullback does not undermine its longer-term outlook.
The bank’s position contrasts with the more cautious tone seen across parts of the market after recent outflows from spot bitcoin ETFs. Traders have been watching those funds closely because they have become one of the most visible sources of demand for bitcoin since their launch.
Recent client withdrawals from spot ETFs have totaled about $8 billion, adding pressure to bitcoin and related equities. Some active traders may prefer to wait for those flows to stabilize before increasing long exposure, particularly while Strategy-related uncertainty remains unresolved.
However, Standard Chartered’s research note emphasized that the selloff tied to Strategy should not be confused with a failure of the company’s core finances. The bank described the issue as one of communication, policy clarity and market interpretation.
Network activity points to resilience
While equity-linked pressure has weighed on sentiment, bitcoin’s network data continues to show strength. The total computing power securing the blockchain reached 891 million terahashes per second on July 8, 2026.
A rising hash rate generally signals that mining operators continue to commit hardware and energy to the network. It can also indicate that operators remain confident about long-term economics, even when the bitcoin price comes under pressure.
The hash rate does not guarantee price stability, and it should not be treated as a direct price floor. Still, it is an important measure of network security and miner participation. A strong hash rate suggests that the underlying infrastructure supporting bitcoin remains robust despite price volatility and stress in bitcoin-linked equities.
Derivatives activity also remains elevated. Total open interest in bitcoin-related derivative contracts stood at $29.85 billion across global venues, showing that large amounts of trading capital remain active in the market.
High open interest can cut both ways. It can reflect strong participation and liquidity, but it can also increase the risk of sharp moves if heavily leveraged positions are forced to unwind. For that reason, traders are watching whether open interest expands alongside stable spot demand or whether it becomes a source of additional volatility.
Clarity may determine the next move
For Strategy, the immediate challenge is not only financial management but also market messaging.
The company’s large bitcoin holdings give it a unique role in the market. Any sale, even one made for treasury purposes, can affect sentiment because traders view Strategy as a bellwether for corporate bitcoin adoption.
Standard Chartered’s research suggests that clearer communication around the monetization plan could help ease pressure on STRC and reduce fears of repeated bitcoin sales. The bank said the preferred stock’s sharp discount was caused more by uncertainty than by a lack of financial resources.
That puts Strategy’s next corporate updates in focus. Traders will be looking for details on dividend coverage, cash reserve targets, collateral policy and whether bitcoin sales will remain occasional and limited.
For the broader bitcoin market, the key issues are ETF flows, derivatives positioning, network strength and whether large corporate holders maintain confidence. Standard Chartered’s unchanged $100,000 forecast shows that the bank sees the recent pressure as a temporary disruption rather than a lasting break in bitcoin’s long-term trend.
The coming weeks may show whether that view gains support. If ETF outflows slow, STRC pricing stabilizes and Strategy provides clearer guidance, the selloff tied to the company may fade as a market concern. If uncertainty persists, traders may continue to demand a discount for Strategy-linked securities, even as bitcoin’s network fundamentals remain strong.
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