SpaceX is set to begin trading on the Nasdaq at $135 per share, raising about $75 billion in what is poised to be one of the largest public offerings in U.S. market history. The deal values the company between $1.75 trillion and $1.8 trillion, with demand exceeding $250 billion, nearly four times the shares available.
The stock is expected to start trading tomorrow.
Strong demand drives historic debut
Subscription levels far outpaced supply during the June 8–10 window, with the company bypassing a traditional roadshow and pricing range in favor of a fixed $135 offering price finalized on June 11. Roughly 556 million shares are being issued, representing about 4.3% of total equity.
A 5-for-1 stock split was completed ahead of the listing, while Elon Musk retains significant voting control.
Goldman Sachs leads the underwriting, with Morgan Stanley handling distribution alongside several global banks. Total underwriting fees are estimated between $800 million and $1 billion.
Retail allocation reshapes liquidity flow
In a break from standard U.S. IPO structures, about 30% of shares—roughly $22.5 billion worth—have been allocated to retail participants, far above the typical 5% to 10%. Platforms including E*Trade, Fidelity, Robinhood, and Schwab are distributing shares across smaller accounts and wealth channels.
This unusually large retail share is contributing to what analysts describe as a liquidity rotation across markets, as traders sell existing positions to fund participation in the offering.
Recent activity suggests that pressure has already emerged in digital assets. Bitcoin dropped below $63,000 in the past week, while cryptocurrency markets saw an estimated $180 billion decline in value. Exchange-traded fund outflows in the sector reached $2.3 billion in May, marking the largest monthly withdrawal of 2026.
Valuation debate remains wide
SpaceX’s financials show projected 2025 revenue of $18.7 billion and a net loss of $4.9 billion, implying a price-to-sales ratio near 94 at current valuation levels.
Estimates of fair value vary significantly. Morningstar places it near $780 billion, while NYU’s Damodaran model suggests between $1.22 trillion and $1.29 trillion. More optimistic projections from underwriting banks point to massive long-term upside, including forecasts tied to AI-driven revenue streams and future space infrastructure.
The company’s business spans launch services, Starlink satellite connectivity, and ongoing development programs such as Starship, alongside integration efforts following its merger with xAI earlier in 2026.
Index inclusion may pressure other stocks
Nasdaq has adjusted its rules to allow SpaceX to join the Nasdaq-100 within 15 trading days. This accelerated inclusion is expected to create forced buying from index-tracking funds, which collectively manage about $1.4 trillion.
Because no existing company will be removed, funds tracking the index may need to sell portions of current holdings to make room. Analysts estimate these funds could be required to acquire up to 30% of the freely traded shares, raising the risk of short-term distortions in pricing across large-cap stocks.
Lock-up structure adds staged supply
Corporate insiders are subject to a 180-day lock-up, though the structure includes phased early releases. Portions of insider holdings can be sold after the first quarterly report, with additional tranches unlocking at several intervals before full release in mid-December.
This staged approach introduces periodic increases in available supply, which could influence price stability in the months following the debut.
Near-term outlook tied to capital rotation
Historical patterns from major IPOs such as Facebook, Airbnb, and Snowflake suggest mixed short-term effects on broader indexes. Simulated trading data for SpaceX points to a potential four-day return of negative 6.3%, highlighting possible early volatility.
Key factors to monitor include whether capital flows return to higher-risk assets after the initial demand surge, how index rebalancing affects large-cap stocks, and how the staggered insider unlock impacts supply.
The listing is expected to test market capacity for absorbing large-scale offerings, while reshaping liquidity dynamics across equities and cryptocurrency markets in the near term.
See how major listings redirect capital across assets—explore cross-market trends in TradFi vs DeFi now.
Disclaimer: The content on this page is provided for general informational purposes only and does not represent the views or financial advice of Toobit. We make no guarantees regarding the accuracy or completeness of this information and shall not be held liable for any errors, omissions, or outcomes resulting from its use. Investing in digital assets involves risk; users should independently evaluate their financial situation and the risks involved. For further details, please consult our Terms of Service and Risk Disclosure.
