SpaceX shares fell to an intraday low of $108.66 on Monday, extending a steep six-week decline as traders positioned for an approaching lockup expiration that could release a large block of stock for sale. The shares have now fallen by more than half from their earlier high of $225.64, placing the $100 level at the center of the market’s near-term downside debate.
Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas argued that a $100 share price would place an unusually harsh valuation on SpaceX’s artificial-intelligence operations. In a recent note, Jonas said that level would imply the market is assigning zero or negative value to the company’s AI businesses after accounting for its rocket-launch and Starlink operations.
The sell-off follows SpaceX’s mid-June public offering, in which the company raised $86 billion by selling shares at $135 each. The stock climbed to $201.80 shortly after listing, briefly placing SpaceX near a $3 trillion valuation, before reversing sharply. The subsequent drop has erased roughly $1 trillion in shareholder value from the post-listing peak, based on the company’s share count and market capitalization changes described in the materials.
The immediate concern is supply. The lockup expiration is expected to make 911.5 million additional shares eligible for trading, creating the prospect of substantial selling by early holders. Lockups typically restrict company insiders and other pre-listing shareholders from selling for a fixed period after an IPO; their expiry can increase trading volume and volatility even when underlying business performance remains unchanged.
Morgan Stanley sees a disconnect at $100
Jonas’s analysis rests on the view that the market would be valuing SpaceX largely through its established launch and connectivity operations while placing little value on its AI ambitions. Morgan Stanley estimated that, at $100 per share, the implied 2028 EBITDA expectation for the combined rocket-launch and Starlink businesses would be about 30% below the bank’s base-case forecast.
Using its 2028 base case of $157 billion in revenue and approximately $69 billion in EBIT, Morgan Stanley calculated that a $100 share price would value SpaceX at 18 times 2028 enterprise value to EBIT. Enterprise value measures a company’s total operating value, including debt and equity, while EBIT refers to earnings before interest and taxes.
The bank said that 18-times valuation would be broadly in line with the median for comparable companies, despite its forecast for SpaceX revenue to grow at a 76% compound annual rate between 2025 and 2030. Morgan Stanley put the peer-group median growth rate at 26%.
The comparison puts the market’s skepticism into perspective. Morgan Stanley said an 18-times EV/EBIT multiple would place SpaceX around the 81st-ranked company among S&P 500 constituents excluding financial and real-estate firms. The bank compared the level with Boeing at 21 times, Waste Management at 19 times, and CSX and Garmin at 18 times.
AI valuation remains the central fault line
Morgan Stanley’s sum-of-the-parts analysis suggests the valuation dispute is less about whether SpaceX has valuable core businesses than about how much future cash flow traders should assign to AI projects that remain expensive to build and uncertain to monetize.
Under one scenario, Morgan Stanley valued the rocket-launch and Starlink businesses at 40 times EV/EBITDA, a small discount to the 46-times median it identified for space-sector peers. That assumption would leave no implied value for SpaceX’s AI operations. Raising the multiple to 50 times, slightly above the peer median, would produce an implied negative value of $300 billion for the AI segment, according to the bank.
A separate 15-year discounted cash-flow model placed the rocket-launch and Starlink businesses alone at about $136 per share, using a 56-times EV/EBITDA terminal multiple. At a $100 share price, Morgan Stanley said the market would be pricing the segment’s 2028 EBITDA at roughly 28% below its base forecast while again assigning no value to AI.
Morgan Stanley’s $300 base-case price target combines $8 per share for the space business, $128 for connectivity, $12 for X and Grok, and $152 for enterprise AI. Its downside case calls for $75 per share, while its upside case reaches $600.
Starlink growth and Starship milestones could shape sentiment
The bank’s operating assumptions remain ambitious. Morgan Stanley said SpaceX holds more than three-quarters of the global market for mass-to-orbit launches and maneuverable satellites in orbit. It estimated that the connectivity business could grow by about 50% this year while generating a 40% EBITDA margin.
Near-term catalysts identified by the bank include Starship flight tests 14 and 15, expected in September and October. The planned milestones include a first catch attempt for the V3 booster, an orbital mission involving deployment of V3 operational satellites, and a possible first upper-stage catch attempt.
On the AI side, Morgan Stanley expects Grok 4.6, described as a 2 trillion-parameter model, within the next month, followed by Grok 5.0, a 6 trillion-parameter model, later this year. The bank also expects the proposed Cursor acquisition to close by the end of the third quarter, potentially providing updates on Cursor’s annual recurring revenue and Grok platform adoption.
SpaceX is also expected to double computing capacity to 2 gigawatts by year-end, according to Morgan Stanley. The bank said that expansion could support larger neocloud contracts, though it also increases exposure to the high capital costs and power requirements associated with AI infrastructure.
Lockup supply could test the $100 level
Morgan Stanley’s downside case assumes delayed Starship progress, weaker-than-expected AI monetization and a longer build-out period for the company’s computing plans. In that scenario, the rocket-plus-Starlink segment would account for more than 90% of total valuation, while Starship operations would be pushed to 2029.
The upside case assumes faster advances in Starship, orbital computing and Terafab, with AI eventually accounting for more than 60% of SpaceX’s value and compute-deployment growth reaching a 46% compound annual rate.
Before those longer-term scenarios can be tested, the stock faces a more immediate market event: whether demand can absorb the newly tradable shares released after the lockup ends. A stable performance through that window would reduce pressure on the idea that the market is valuing SpaceX solely as a launch and connectivity company.
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