Serbia vs Germany football match prediction

Florian Wirtz gave Serbia two different problems in the October meeting. His shot struck the post before Tom Bischof scored the rebound, and his later carry ended with a goal of his own. Serbia now have to defend that central route without suspended midfielders Nemanja Maksimović and Saša Lukić. Germany have the clearer path to a win, provided their own attacking shape does not leave Filip Kostić free to break down Serbia's left.

Competition: UEFA Nations League 2026/27, League A Group A2
Matchweek: League phase, matchday 5
Date and time: November 13, 2026, 20:45 Central European Time, 19:45 UTC
Place: Stadion Rajko Mitić, Belgrade, Serbia

Germany won 2-0 in Munich, but Kostić nearly supplied Kosta Nedeljković at the far post while the match was still scoreless. The return fixture therefore turns on two connected questions: where Wirtz receives before Serbia can close him, and whether Serbia's first escape finds a second attacker before Germany recover.

What is happening before Serbia vs Germany

Jürgen Klopp's Germany have won one, drawn two and lost one of their first four Nations League matches under him. They scored three times and conceded twice. The win came against Serbia; the defeat came at home to Greece. A goalless draw in Greece followed Germany's productive attacking spell against Serbia. The sample supports a narrow away lean, not a claim that Germany have solved every route to goal.

Serbia have lost their four group matches. The 2-1 defeat to the Netherlands in Eindhoven still offers a useful check on that record. Mihajlo Cvetković headed an equalizer between two defenders and later forced a save; Lazar Samardžić also had an attempt stopped. Serbia created chances while remaining exposed to another Dutch attack from the opposite side. Their results and their ability to threaten are both part of the forecast.

The personnel problem is immediate. Serbia's federation states that Maksimović and Lukić cannot play against Germany because of accumulated yellow cards. Recent reports have also raised concerns about Strahinja Pavlović's fitness; his place in the back line should not be assumed before a team update. Germany have reduced their earlier large squad to a 24-player November selection and recalled Niclas Füllkrug. The names available to Klopp are clearer than the starting combination.

Belgrade will also have a different atmosphere from an unrestricted home fixture. A UEFA sanction limits parts of the crowd, with organized groups of children permitted in the east stand. That is context for the venue rather than a numerical adjustment to either team's chance of winning.

Serbia team analysis

Serbia's best route out of pressure requires more than Kostić running into open grass. In Munich he reached a crossing position, and Nedeljković attacked the far side. The move nearly worked because the first release had a second action. With two regular midfield options suspended, the distance between Serbia's replacement central pair and those wide runners becomes especially important.

Likely formation: Predicted 3-4-2-1.

Possible XI: Predicted only: Vanja Milinković-Savić; Strahinja Eraković, Nikola Milenković, Srđan Babić; Kosta Nedeljković, Aleksandar Stanković, Sergej Milinković-Savić, Filip Kostić; Andrija Živković, Dušan Tadić; Luka Jović.

The projected players appear in Serbia's announced November group, but this is not a confirmed team sheet. Babić is a cautious projected choice while Pavlović's fitness remains unclear. Cvetković could replace Jović to attack the space between center backs, while Samardžić offers a different final pass from the line behind the forward. The suspended midfielders are excluded.

• Left-side release: Kostić can attack the space behind Germany's advancing right side. His cross becomes more dangerous when Nedeljković or another runner arrives beyond the first defender.

• First forward contact: Jović needs to keep the ball available for Tadić or Živković rather than compete alone against Germany's center backs.

• Run between defenders: Cvetković's equalizer against the Netherlands shows what a different forward choice could add. It does not settle whether he starts.

• Recovery behind both wingbacks: Serbia's attacking improvement in Eindhoven did not stop a later Dutch move from the other side. Sending both wide players forward would put heavy recovery demands on the replacement midfield pair.

The home case becomes credible when Serbia's first escape leads to another pass or cross. A clearance that simply returns to German midfield will leave Serbia defending Wirtz again.

Germany team analysis

Germany's October win showed that Wirtz can receive beyond Serbia's midfield and carry toward the box. The 0-0 draw in Greece showed that getting into promising areas does not ensure a finish. Klopp needs a forward and a second arrival close enough to use Wirtz's work, while leaving cover for Kostić's release.

Likely formation: Predicted 4-2-3-1.

Possible XI: Predicted only: Marc-André ter Stegen; Philipp Treu, Jonathan Tah, Nico Schlotterbeck, Nathaniel Brown; Joshua Kimmich, Felix Nmecha; Lennart Karl, Florian Wirtz, Derry Scherhant; Kai Havertz.

The November squad supports these names as options, not as confirmed starters. Aleksandar Pavlović could partner Kimmich in midfield. Füllkrug could replace Havertz and change Germany's central reference in the penalty area. Jonas Urbig started both the October Serbia match and the following Greece match, making the goalkeeper choice particularly uncertain.

• Central return pass: Kimmich can remain below Wirtz when Serbia close the first forward lane. His position also gives Germany someone to challenge Serbia's initial release.

• Wirtz's receiving direction: A forward-facing touch beyond the Serbian screen can draw a center back out of line. Touches in front of two compact midfielders carry much less threat.

• Staggered fullbacks: One defender can support the move while the other stays connected to the recovery line. Advancing both together makes Kostić's escape more dangerous.

• Second action in the box: Bischof scored from Wirtz's rebound in Munich. Germany need a runner close to the forward or loose ball rather than asking Wirtz to finish every carry himself.

The visitors' strongest plan joins central progression to recovery positions behind it. Their loss to Greece is a reminder that a German possession loss can open the opposite route quickly.

Line-by-line comparison

Germany's central-access edge is supported by the direct meeting, and Serbia's suspensions make that space more important. Serbia's best counterweapon was visible in the same game. The result will depend more on the frequency of those two sequences than on how many rows favor either team.

Key tactical battle

The German move begins when a defender or deeper midfielder finds Wirtz beyond Serbia's first central challenge. One of Serbia's replacement midfielders then has to get close enough to prevent a free turn. If neither does, Wirtz can carry toward the nearest center back. That defender must decide whether to step out and leave a runner behind or hold the line and allow Wirtz to approach shooting range.

Munich supplies direct evidence for both outcomes Germany want: Wirtz's shot created Bischof's rebound, and his later carry ended in the net. The exact passing pattern Germany use in Belgrade is still a projection. Serbia can deny the easy reception by screening Kimmich's lane and keeping one midfielder near Wirtz. That may send Germany wide, where Serbia need the back line to resist chasing every receiver and opening the central gap anyway.

The move can reverse in seconds. If a German attack breaks down and Serbia find Kostić before the right-side defender resets, a central midfielder has to delay the next pass. Otherwise Nedeljković or another runner can reach Kostić's delivery at the far side. Serbia nearly converted that route in Munich. An unsupported sprint from Kostić is less predictive than a repeatable first pass followed by a runner in the box.

Germany's lean would weaken if Wirtz keeps receiving in front of the screen while Serbia connect several left-sided escapes to a second attacker. One spectacular counter is possible in any match. Repeated connected releases would show that Germany's attacking positions are leaving a structural opening.

What Serbia need to do

• Screen the passer: Put a forward close enough to Kimmich's lane to make Wirtz's first touch contested.

• Keep the midfield paired: Stanković and the selected partner must avoid following the same German pass and exposing Milenković to Wirtz's turn.

• Connect Kostić's run: Give him a nearby support pass and a far-side arrival; the Munich cross needed the latter to become dangerous.

• Protect the opposite side: If Nedeljković advances, leave cover for Germany's next recovery and switch.

What Germany need to do

• Keep an option beneath Wirtz: Use Kimmich or his partner as a return pass when Serbia close the central turn.

• Advance one fullback at a time: Preserve a defender near the route Kostić would use after a regain.

• Arrive for the rebound: Put the chosen center forward and another runner close enough to profit from a Wirtz shot or blocked carry.

• Disrupt Serbia's next receiver: Challenging only Kostić leaves the second pass toward the far side available.

Toobit Prediction Market angle

Wirtz's touch location is the first useful match observation. Receiving beyond Serbia's midfield with room to turn is different from collecting the ball in front of a settled screen. The second is Kostić's first supported release. A pass that reaches him but leaves no teammate to receive his next action changes little.

Score state alters the risk. Serbia leading would have less reason to advance both wingbacks. Germany chasing would have to decide how much cover to retain behind Wirtz. A level score at halftime is less informative than the number of clean German central receptions and connected Serbian escapes.

These observations help explain the football forecast. They do not establish an event listing or the outcomes, prices and settlement rules of a platform market.

Match scenarios

Scenario 1: Serbia score early

A home lead could let Serbia keep its central pair nearer the back line, making Wirtz work for a new receiving angle. Germany's fullbacks would have an incentive to advance, which might create more passes toward the box while opening the release to Kostić.

Serbia must still get out. They scored first against Greece at home and lost, so an advantage cannot rest on defending the same area for an hour. Cvetković's movement or Samardžić's passing could improve the forward connection if the starting attack becomes isolated. Germany could respond by changing the central target instead of merely increasing cross volume. Serbia 1-1 Germany or Serbia 2-1 Germany are plausible if the home side keep Kostić involved.

Scenario 2: The match is level at halftime

The more useful question at the interval is where Wirtz has received. If Serbia keep him facing his own goal or receiving outside the dangerous central lane, a draw gains weight. If Germany have reached him beyond the screen and produced shots without scoring, a change in finishing could be enough.

Klopp can use Füllkrug for a different box reference or a midfielder with a safer return pass. Serbia can alter the forward outlet without dismantling the defensive line. Serbia 0-1 Germany or Serbia 1-1 Germany best fit a close first half, depending on which side controls the next pass after a turnover.

Scenario 3: Germany score first

Serbia would need another player nearer Jović or the selected striker. Kostić could advance earlier, with Nedeljković arriving at the far side, but those movements would give Germany space behind Serbia's wide players.

Germany could use Wirtz after a regain instead of forcing another settled attack. They still need one midfielder positioned to challenge the Serbian outlet. Serbia's improved spell after substitutions in Munich argues against assuming that a German lead ends the contest. Serbia 1-2 Germany remains the main route; Serbia 0-2 Germany becomes more likely if the visitors repeatedly stop Serbia's second pass.

Key players to watch

1. Florian Wirtz of Germany

Wirtz produced both decisive German actions in October: a shot that became a rebound goal and a carry he finished himself. In Belgrade, his first touch matters more than the volume of his touches. He wants to receive beyond the replacement midfield pair and face the nearest center back.

Repeated receptions under contact with no forward option would reduce Germany's central advantage. A teammate arriving for the second action would make a blocked Wirtz effort dangerous again.

2. Filip Kostić of Serbia

Kostić nearly supplied Nedeljković from the left in Munich. His first decision here is whether to deliver early or wait for a second runner to enter the box. His defensive recovery also affects whether Serbia can maintain a close central screen while he advances.

A lone run may win territory. A run followed by a supported pass or useful cross could change the result.

3. Joshua Kimmich of Germany

Kimmich has played centrally under Klopp, although his role against Serbia remains a prediction. Beneath Wirtz, he can offer the return pass when the first lane closes and challenge the next Serbian receiver when Germany lose possession.

If he and both fullbacks move ahead of the ball together, the cover needed against Kostić diminishes. His positioning connects Germany's best attacking route to its most obvious defensive risk.

4. Aleksandar Stanković of Serbia

Stanković is in Serbia's November squad and is projected into a midfield missing Maksimović and Lukić. His job is to stay connected to the other central player and identify Wirtz before a center back has to leave the line.

An attacking arrival in an earlier Serbia match shows another part of his game, but it does not prove he can deny Wirtz space here. The immediate test is defensive spacing on Germany's first central pass.

Prediction

Germany have the clearer evidence of dangerous central access against this opponent. Serbia have an equally identifiable wide route, and Klopp's four-match sample does not support a heavy-confidence forecast. The probabilities cover 90 minutes plus stoppage time.

Probability view:

• Serbia win: 20%

• Draw: 30%

• Germany win: 50%

Main score prediction:

Serbia 1-2 Germany

Alternative score predictions:

• Serbia 1-1 Germany if Serbia keep Wirtz in front of the midfield screen and preserve a connected outlet.

• Serbia 0-2 Germany if the visitors stop Serbia's second receiver and repeatedly find Wirtz beyond the screen.

The main score relies on Germany converting its territorial advantage without offering Kostić the same two-pass escape several times. The absence of two Serbian midfielders strengthens the visitors' case; uncertainty around the final defensive and forward selections keeps it from becoming a comfortable one.

Match outlook

Germany are the narrow choice through Wirtz's central reception and a second German arrival in the box. Serbia can disrupt that route, but their answer must include a supported release to Kostić rather than isolated clearances.

If Wirtz remains in front of Serbia's screen and Kostić repeatedly reaches a second attacker, the away lean should change. Until those conditions appear, a one-goal Germany win is the better 90-minute call.

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Toobit Prediction Market presents event-based outcomes across sports and other global events where available. For Serbia vs Germany, useful reference points include Wirtz's receiving position and whether Kostić can find a second runner after the left-sided release.

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