Robinhood’s prediction market activity jumped sharply at the start of the FIFA World Cup, with daily trading volumes rising from $2.2 billion to $4.8 billion within a day, according to a Bernstein report. The spike already surpasses the $1.4 billion recorded during last season’s Super Bowl, signaling rapid early adoption tied to major global events.
Strong growth outlook for prediction markets
Bernstein analysts project Robinhood’s prediction market revenue will climb from $150 million in 2025 to $586 million in 2026, marking a 286% annual increase. The segment is expected to contribute about 17% of transaction-based revenue and roughly 10% of total revenue next year, highlighting its growing importance to the platform.
Partnership with Rothera supports expansion
The report points to Robinhood’s partnership with Rothera, a CFTC-licensed exchange and clearinghouse, as a key driver of growth. Since launching in late May, Rothera has processed around 200 million contracts in just 18 days, with most activity tied to FIFA World Cup and Major League Baseball events.
Low fees and wide access boost activity
Robinhood’s pricing model has also supported higher trading volumes. The platform offers a $0.01 commission per contract, with discounts of up to 50% for Gold subscribers. Combined with its broad user base, these incentives have helped accelerate participation. Robinhood shares closed at $93.19 on the Nasdaq.
Industry-wide momentum builds
The surge is not limited to Robinhood. Competing platforms such as Polymarket and Kalshi have expanded offerings with new event and cryptocurrency futures products. Kalshi alone recorded $1 billion in trading volume in the week following the launch of its CFTC-regulated perpetual futures.
Bernstein estimates that the World Cup could generate more than $3 billion in additional handle and between $5 billion and $10 billion in total consumer trading volume across prediction markets, as new contract types and platforms continue to drive engagement.
Regulatory clarity and broader trends
Momentum in the sector is being reinforced by regulatory developments. The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission has proposed new rules that would clarify the legality of contracts tied to sports outcomes, potentially removing a key barrier for further expansion.
Across the industry, combined platforms have surpassed $150 billion in lifetime trading volume, with monthly activity reaching around $24 billion earlier this year. This suggests prediction markets are moving beyond niche use cases into a more mainstream trading segment.
Uncertainty over sustainability
The key question now is whether this surge can persist beyond the World Cup. Continued growth will depend on user retention and the rollout of new event-based contracts to sustain engagement.
At the same time, broader market conditions remain mixed. Bitcoin has recovered to around $65,695 following recent volatility and ETF outflows, with activity driven more by leverage than strong spot demand. Prediction market pricing reflects similar caution, with year-end expectations for Bitcoin hovering near $66,000.
The coming weeks will show whether capital and attention continue shifting toward prediction markets or return to more established assets.
Curious about where prediction markets are headed next? Explore 2026’s outlook in this in-depth forecast today.
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