Robinhood’s new prediction market platform, Rothera, has climbed to third place globally by trading volume just two weeks after launch, posting $559 million in weekly transactions. The rapid rise appears to come largely from order flow previously routed through Kalshi, rather than an influx of new market participants.
Rothera’s weekly volume grew sharply from $21.9 million in its first measured week ending June 8 to $276 million by June 15, before more than doubling again the following week. That performance brings it to roughly one-fifth the size of market leader Polymarket.
Robinhood’s platform surges in early trading
For the past year, Robinhood served as a major distribution channel for Kalshi, contributing an estimated 25% to 35% of its total activity. Under that arrangement, Robinhood directed customer trades to Kalshi, which handled execution and settlement while both firms shared revenue.
The launch of Rothera ended that partnership. Robinhood has moved key event contracts, including those tied to the World Cup, onto its own system, redirecting significant trading volume internally.
Data from Hood House suggests the shift is already generating meaningful returns. As of June 20, Robinhood’s prediction market operations were producing about $4.9 million in daily revenue. Rothera processed roughly 137 million contracts in a single day, representing about $47 million in transaction value.
Shift in order flow reshapes competition
Kalshi continues to operate at a larger scale, processing around 1.5 billion contracts valued at $416 million over the same period, with approximately $260 million unrelated to World Cup markets. Despite the split, Robinhood still accounts for about 20% of Kalshi’s non-World Cup activity, equal to roughly 210 million contracts and $52 million in volume.
The competitive shift highlights how control over user distribution, rather than trading infrastructure alone, can determine where liquidity concentrates. By internalizing order flow, Robinhood has effectively captured revenue that was previously shared.
Kalshi retains scale while adapting strategy
If current trends hold, Robinhood’s prediction market business could generate about $1 billion in annual revenue, surpassing its 2025 peak from cryptocurrency operations.
Kalshi, meanwhile, is exploring a strategic response. The company has begun preliminary discussions with investment banks regarding a potential initial public offering, though a listing is not expected before late 2027. Its annualized revenue run rate has already exceeded $2 billion, supported by strong trading activity, including $16.81 billion in monthly volume recorded in May 2026.
A recent $1 billion Series F funding round valued Kalshi at $22 billion, signaling continued confidence in its growth prospects despite the loss of its former distribution partner.
Revenue outlook and market expansion
Kalshi is now urging banking partners to integrate directly with its trading systems, aiming to expand beyond retail channels and reach institutional networks. This shift reflects a broader transformation of prediction markets into tools for hedging and data analysis among professional trading desks.
Survey data indicates this transition is already underway, with a growing share of institutional derivatives firms either active in or considering entry into event-based markets.
Institutional push signals market evolution
The emergence of multiple high-volume platforms is fragmenting liquidity and reshaping price discovery. Traders must now assess where the best execution conditions exist, as no single venue dominates order flow.
Differences in odds and trading volumes across platforms such as Rothera, Kalshi, and Polymarket are becoming more pronounced. These gaps can offer insight into shifting market sentiment, particularly in high-profile events like the World Cup, where individual contracts have already exceeded $2.5 billion in volume.
The coming weeks are likely to determine which platform can attract the deepest liquidity and most informed participation, factors that will define pricing accuracy and competitive positioning across the sector.
Want to trade event-based markets like Rothera and Kalshi? Explore Toobit’s event contracts guide and sharpen your prediction strategies.
Disclaimer: The content on this page is provided for general informational purposes only and does not represent the views or financial advice of Toobit. We make no guarantees regarding the accuracy or completeness of this information and shall not be held liable for any errors, omissions, or outcomes resulting from its use. Investing in digital assets involves risk; users should independently evaluate their financial situation and the risks involved. For further details, please consult our Terms of Service and Risk Disclosure.
