Prediction market platforms are unlikely to concentrate under a single dominant player, according to Limitless Labs CEO CJ Hetherington, who said no platform is expected to control more than 90% of market share. He compared the sector to perpetual futures trading, where liquidity is spread across multiple venues.
Speaking to Bernstein analysts, Hetherington said Limitless currently processes about $2 billion in monthly trading volume, with most activity coming from the Asia-Pacific and European regions. A U.S. launch remains pending regulatory approval.
Market structure driven by professional liquidity
Hetherington said prediction markets are evolving in a similar way to derivatives exchanges, where most trading volume and fees come from professional market makers operating across multiple platforms. These firms often exploit price differences between venues, contributing to overall liquidity.
He pointed to Binance’s perpetual futures business, which once held about 50% market share before competitors gained ground. While certain contracts still show strong concentration, he said fragmentation ultimately supports healthier liquidity across the ecosystem.
Limitless, founded in 2023, operates primarily through an API rather than a retail-focused interface. Its largest traders are active across several platforms simultaneously, reflecting a more institutional-style trading environment.
U.S. expansion tied to regulatory clarity
The company’s entry into the U.S. market depends on clearer regulatory guidelines. Hetherington said trading activity in prediction markets is likely to flow through broker-dealers and futures commission merchants once rules are established.
He highlighted the importance of consistent, rules-based oversight, noting that unclear contract terms have historically caused disputes. Supervision by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission is expected to reduce such issues and improve confidence among traders.
Institutional markets seen as key growth driver
Hetherington estimated that U.S. sports betting could generate between $6 billion and $10 billion in annual revenue over the next decade. However, he said institutional risk-transfer markets are roughly ten times larger and represent the primary focus for Limitless.
He projected that the broader prediction market category could reach around $100 billion in annual revenue within 15 years.
Regulatory risks and product challenges
He said stronger monitoring systems can help deter insider trading, while warning that sports-related contracts remain the most complex due to overlapping state and federal rules. He also raised concerns that allowing tokenized equities to trade without approval from securities regulators could lead to future complications.
Strategy focuses on liquidity over expansion
Hetherington dismissed plans to expand into on-chain perpetual futures and expressed skepticism about new entrants successfully scaling in prediction markets. He compared such efforts to early corporate prediction tools from the 2000s that failed to gain traction.
Currently, Limitless rebates all revenue to market makers to boost liquidity. He added that reported retention rates of 80% to 90% across the sector are often driven by automated trading activity, with the top 5% to 10% of accounts generating most of the volume.
Growth outlook remains strong
Bernstein estimates global prediction market activity could approach $1 trillion annually by 2030. The firm also expects the 2026 FIFA World Cup to generate an additional $5 billion to $10 billion in trading volume during the event.
Explore how fragmented liquidity, tokenized equities, and regulation could reshape markets in 2026 in our prediction markets outlook.
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