A Wall Street Journal investigation has found that Polymarket funded a coordinated campaign of misleading promotional videos, featuring staged bets and fabricated winnings designed to mimic activity on its platform.
Fake trades and staged winnings
An analysis of 1,105 videos produced by ten online creators between December 2025 and mid-May showed that none of the displayed wagersâworth about $1.9 millionâwere real. The clips presented simulated outcomes on imitation versions of Polymarketâs interface, giving the impression of successful trades that never occurred.
In one example, a college student appeared to win $100,000 predicting that former President Donald Trump would mention âMcDonaldâs.â The footage used was two months old, and more than 50 real traders who made the same bet during that period lost.
The report found that Polymarket created multiple replica websites for filming, including one hosted on a misspelled domain resembling the official site. Across 118 videos, creators appeared to generate nearly $900,000 in winnings, though those same bets would have produced losses exceeding $166,000 under real conditions.
Payments and undisclosed sponsorships
Creators were paid monthly fees averaging $2,000 to $3,000 and were instructed not to disclose their agreements. Some only added acknowledgments after being contacted by reporters.
The campaign was managed by a contractor called Virality, which compensated creators based on performance metrics tied to U.S. audiences. Payments were issued only when at least 60% of viewers came from the United States. According to Tubular Labs, the videos collectively generated more than 140 million views across major platforms.
Separately, reporting earlier this month found that Polymarketâs chief marketing officer, Modabber, used a personal PayPal account to distribute payments to influencers without advertising disclosures. That account sent at least $350,000 directly to creators and more than $2.5 million to over 800 recipients in total.
Focus on U.S. audience despite restrictions
The marketing push targeted U.S. viewers even though Polymarket has been restricted from offering its primary interface domestically since a 2022 settlement with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. That agreement included a $1.4 million fine and required the platform to block U.S. users.
The use of U.S.-focused metrics in the campaign highlights a deliberate effort to build traction in a jurisdiction where the company faces regulatory limits.
Polymarket said it would review the promotional activity through a formal audit.
Mounting legal and regulatory pressure
The company is facing renewed scrutiny as it seeks to reestablish its presence in the U.S. market. Kentucky authorities have filed a lawsuit against Polymarket and rival Kalshi, alleging both operate unauthorized wagering platforms. The stateâs attorney general described the services as illegal and is seeking to halt operations.
At the federal level, oversight is also intensifying. A congressional probe has been launched into potential insider trading tied to suspiciously timed bets, while separate enforcement actions involve individuals accused of profiting from non-public information on prediction markets.
Competition and market trends
Polymarketâs position in the sector has weakened as competition grows. Data from April 2026 shows Kalshiâs monthly trading volume rising 13% to $14.8 billion, surpassing Polymarketâs $10.2 billion for the first time in eight months.
Despite this shift, the broader prediction market sector is expanding rapidly, with combined monthly volume reaching ááááźáááááá $24 billion in April, up from under $5 billion in September 2025.
Credibility concerns grow
The investigation underscores a marketing strategy built on simulated outcomes that misrepresent real trading conditions. This approach contrasts with the transparency typically associated with blockchain-based systems, which Polymarket uses for its actual transactions.
Additional concerns have emerged from sponsored content that appeared to encourage trading on confidential information, despite company policies prohibiting such behavior. A high-profile streaming partnership and widespread undisclosed promotions have further amplified scrutiny.
With multiple investigations and legal actions underway, Polymarket faces increasing pressure as regulators apply traditional financial oversight standards to the rapidly evolving prediction market space.
Concerned about deceptive prediction markets? Learn how to avoid costly mistakes in emerging crypto betting platforms.
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