A growing number of global IPOs are showing signs of a structural shift, with limited share availability, narrative-driven pricing, and extreme valuations reshaping how newly listed companies trade.
Low float drives sharp price surges
Recent listings across the United States and Hong Kong are increasingly mirroring the dynamics of cryptocurrency launches, where restricted supply fuels rapid price gains.
Data shows that companies with fewer publicly tradable shares experience stronger early momentum. Nasdaq research indicates average IPO free float declined from about 30% in the 1980s to near 20% by 2020. Between 2024 and 2026, IPOs with less than 30% of shares available posted average first-day gains of 67.4%, compared to 47.9% for those with larger floats.
Several high-profile listings highlight the trend. Zhipu, an AI firm listed in Hong Kong, surged twenty-fivefold within months while making less than 4% of its shares available at debut. SpaceX, valued at $1.77 trillion at listing, released just 4.3% of its equity, prompting Nasdaq to adjust its long-standing public ownership requirements.
Other technology firms, including Cerebras, Figma, and Circle, floated between 2% and 15% of shares, generating first-day price jumps ranging from 68% to 250%.
Control, pricing, and scarcity incentives
Low float structures offer clear advantages to insiders and dealmakers. Founders retain tighter control, limiting voting dilution, while investment banks benefit from amplified debut performance that boosts visibility.
At SpaceX, Elon Musk maintains about 85% of voting power, leaving public shareholders with minimal governance influence. In Hong Kong, cornerstone participants often receive large allocations that remain locked up, further restricting supply. In Zhipu’s case, these participants controlled roughly 70% of the tradable shares for six months.
This engineered scarcity increases demand pressure early on, supporting higher valuations before lock-up periods expire.
Narrative replaces traditional valuation
The shift toward narrative-driven pricing is particularly evident in AI and technology firms, where financial fundamentals are often weak or difficult to interpret.
Companies such as CoreWeave and Nebius report rapid revenue growth alongside significant losses, complicating conventional valuation models. CoreWeave expanded revenue from $16 million in 2022 to $5.1 billion in 2025, yet still posted a $1.2 billion net loss. Zhipu reported losses more than four times its revenue.
As a result, traditional metrics appear extreme. Zhipu trades at a price-to-sales ratio above 1,200x, while SpaceX sits near 95x. Pricing is increasingly tied to expectations of future technological capabilities rather than current financial performance.
Lock-up expirations emerge as key risk
Attention is now shifting to what happens after the initial surge, particularly when locked shares become tradable.
Historical U.S. data shows median returns fall about 10% within six months after IPO lock-ups expire, with roughly 10% of listings dropping more than 60%. Firms have begun advising employees to use hedging strategies before these events, while short positions in high-valuation names have proven costly due to crowded trades.
Recent price action reflects this pressure. Zhipu, after rising approximately 2,000% following its January IPO, has declined roughly 45% from its late May peak ahead of its July lock-up expiration. Rival MiniMax saw a drop exceeding 52% under similar conditions.
Echoes of cryptocurrency market behavior
The pattern closely resembles earlier developments in digital asset markets. Research published in 2024 showed new tokens often launched with only 6% to 20% of supply in circulation, inflating fully diluted valuations.
Estimates suggest $155 billion in locked tokens will enter circulation before 2030. By the end of 2025, 84.7% of newly launched tokens traded below their debut prices, with median losses near 71%.
The same mechanism—limited early supply driving price spikes, followed by declines as availability increases—is now appearing across equity markets.
Supply schedules take center stage
With more than $111.4 billion raised through IPOs so far in 2026, up 624.6% from the previous year, the concentration in AI and technology offerings is intensifying these dynamics.
Market participants are increasingly focused on lock-up calendars as a primary indicator of future price movements. SpaceX, for example, has scheduled share releases tied to earnings reports throughout late 2026, with its first major increase in tradable shares expected after its second-quarter results, potentially doubling the float.
The timing and scale of these releases are becoming critical analytical inputs. In some cases, less than 10% of total shares may enter circulation at one event, while others may release nearly half of total equity.
As low-float strategies spread across global exchanges, the convergence between equity and cryptocurrency market mechanics is becoming more pronounced. In both cases, supply constraints—not just fundamentals—are emerging as a dominant force shaping price behavior.
Explore how tokenized stocks blur lines between IPOs and crypto in this detailed market convergence analysis.
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