JPMorgan analysts say Strategy, the software firm chaired by Michael Saylor, may need to rebuild its U.S. dollar reserves after selling 32 bitcoin, warning that current liquidity only covers about 6.3 months of dividend payments. The bank said restoring cash reserves could help stabilize confidence and reduce concerns about how the company will meet future obligations without further bitcoin sales.
The comments, led by managing director Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou, came in the bank’s latest alternative investments outlook and strategy report. While the bitcoin sale was described as voluntary and symbolic, it unsettled market sentiment and raised questions about dividend coverage and the risk of additional asset liquidations.
Strategy may need to rebuild dollar reserves after bitcoin sale
Strategy set aside a $1.44 billion reserve last December to fund preferred stock dividends and debt interest. The firm now holds 843,706 bitcoin at an average cost of $75,699 per coin, implying an unrealized loss of about $11.5 billion with bitcoin trading near $62,000.
Saylor has signaled a continued accumulation strategy despite the recent sale. JPMorgan estimates that if the current pace continues, Strategy could purchase around $32 billion in bitcoin in 2026, up from about $22 billion in both 2025 and 2024. The bank had previously projected $30 billion for this year.
Large bitcoin holdings under pressure
JPMorgan said near-term conditions for digital assets depend partly on how Strategy addresses its estimated $1.7 billion in annual dividend obligations. The bank also pointed to uncertainty around U.S. regulation, assigning less than a 50% probability that the Clarity Act will pass this year due to limited legislative time and ongoing policy debates.
This marks a shift in the bank’s stance from an “overweight” view earlier this year to a more cautious outlook. Analysts cited weaker institutional momentum and slower capital inflows, with digital asset inflows running at about $22 billion so far this year, or an annualized $52 billion—roughly half of 2025 levels.
Regulatory uncertainty and dividend pressure
Broader market indicators show cooling demand. Digital asset investment products have recorded four consecutive weeks of outflows totaling about $5.8 billion, with $1.67 billion withdrawn in the latest week alone. Bitcoin-related products accounted for the majority of those outflows.
Assets under management in these products have fallen to around $141 billion, the lowest since early April. In derivatives markets, bitcoin futures open interest declined sharply from about $42 billion in May to roughly $25 billion, signaling a significant reduction in leveraged positions.
Market momentum weakens across segments
JPMorgan revised its estimate of bitcoin’s production cost to about $87,000 after earlier adjustments, noting that this level has historically acted as price support. Bitcoin currently trades below that threshold, reinforcing the bank’s cautious near-term outlook.
In decentralized finance, total value locked has dropped to about $69 billion from roughly $150 billion last year, reflecting reduced risk appetite. The bank also said Ethereum and other altcoins are unlikely to outperform bitcoin without stronger network activity and clear real-world demand.
Still, analysts noted that subdued sentiment could act as a countertrend signal if clearer financial strategies and regulatory developments emerge later this year.
For deeper insight into bitcoin reserves and valuation, explore bitcoin’s fundamental value and long-term support drivers.
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