Goldman Sachs has initiated coverage of Intel with a neutral rating and a 12‑month price target of $150, implying a 13.9% gain from $131.65. The bank said Intel’s growth opportunities in foundry services and server CPUs are real but already reflected in the stock, limiting near-term upside.
Limited upside despite long-term potential
Goldman values Intel at 21 times its projected 2030 earnings, arguing that the current price already captures much of its recovery story. While long-term fundamentals remain intact, the firm sees constrained growth in the near term compared with faster-moving competitors in AI-driven hardware.
The report highlights stronger demand visibility and execution from AMD, Nvidia, and Broadcom, all of which received buy ratings due to clearer positioning in the expanding AI infrastructure market.
Foundry ambitions face a long road
Intel’s foundry business is expected to generate about $11 billion in revenue by 2030, with gross margins exceeding 50%, supported by its EMIB advanced packaging technology. This approach allows chip integration without building new wafer facilities, reducing capital intensity and speeding up production timelines.
However, Goldman cautions that large-scale commercialization may not arrive until after 2028. The model depends heavily on external customer adoption, which could be supported by supply chain diversification efforts in the U.S. and Europe.
Recent progress includes the 18A-P process entering risk production, a key milestone before mass manufacturing. Intel has also brought in former SK hynix CEO Seok-Hee Lee to lead its advanced packaging unit, signaling a stronger push into high-margin AI chip integration.
Server growth trails AI leaders
In servers, Goldman forecasts a 28% compound annual growth rate through 2030, driven by demand for agentic AI computing. Still, that pace lags far behind Nvidia and others benefiting more directly from the AI boom.
Nvidia’s data center revenue reached $75.2 billion in the quarter ending April 2026, up 92% year over year. Broadcom reported $10.8 billion in AI semiconductor revenue in a single quarter, with expectations to surpass $16 billion in the following period.
Meanwhile, AMD continues to gain ground in server CPUs, reaching 33.2% of shipment share in early 2026 and capturing 46.2% of total spending in the segment. Its EPYC chips remain particularly strong in premium workloads.
Intel has responded with new server chips, including Sierra Forest and Granite Rapids, aimed at improving efficiency and reclaiming share in cloud and enterprise environments.
Catalysts and risks ahead
Goldman points to several factors that could shift sentiment on Intel. Faster adoption of its foundry services or improved CPU market share during AI infrastructure expansion could support a re-rating. On the other hand, delays in advanced manufacturing or stronger competition from AMD could weigh on performance.
Near-term developments to watch include updates on foundry capacity, new Xeon launches, and signs of improving profitability. The bank suggests that while Intel’s turnaround remains credible, it may take longer to materialize than some traders expect.
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