A monthly survey of semiconductor fund managers shows that enthusiasm for artificial intelligence chips remains strong, but the market is becoming more selective about where money is going. Respondents are moving toward companies they believe can turn AI demand into revenue, margins, and cash flow, while cutting back on areas where future orders look less certain.
The strongest preference in the survey was for Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co., Texas Instruments, memory producers, and Advanced Micro Devices. At the same time, respondents showed less appetite for semiconductor equipment suppliers and Intel, reflecting a sharper divide inside the chip sector after a long AI-driven rally.
The shift comes at a critical moment for the industry. TSMC is scheduled to report second-quarter results on July 16. Texas Instruments will hold its earnings call on July 22, while AMD will host its Advancing AI 2026 event on July 22 and July 23. Those updates are expected to give traders a clearer view of whether AI demand is still accelerating, whether chipmakers are expanding production plans, and whether margins can keep improving.
Recent financial records have already strengthened expectations around the leading foundry names. TSMC, led by C.C. Wei, reported that June 2026 sales rose 68% from a year earlier to NT$442.68 billion. The strong month lifted second-quarter sales to about $39.63 billion, underscoring the scale of demand tied to advanced processors, AI accelerators, and high-performance computing.
The data also suggest that the next phase of the chip rally may not reward every company equally. Fund managers are no longer treating all semiconductor exposure as the same trade. Instead, they are focusing on companies with clearer pricing power, stronger production pipelines, and better visibility into customer demand.
AI demand remains the main anchor
The survey showed continued confidence in AI-related chip demand, but it also revealed greater concern about valuation, factory spending, and the timing of new orders. AI remains the main growth driver across the semiconductor chain, from advanced logic and memory to networking and power management. Still, respondents appear more focused on which companies can capture that growth directly.
TSMC stood out as the most important company for broad sector sentiment. In the survey, 70% of participants said TSMC’s performance would have a greater influence on the overall semiconductor segment than ASML’s results. The remaining 30% selected ASML, the dominant supplier of extreme-ultraviolet lithography systems used to make advanced chips.
That result shows how strongly the market is now linking the chip outlook to foundry demand. TSMC manufactures advanced chips for many of the world’s largest technology companies, including firms building AI processors, graphics chips, smartphone processors, and data center components. When TSMC reports stronger demand or raises guidance, the signal often reaches far beyond Taiwan.
Market expectations suggest TSMC could raise its 2026 sales growth outlook from above 30% to around 35%, with some discussion that growth could approach 40% if AI demand remains stronger than expected. There is also speculation that TSMC could lift its forecast for AI-related revenue growth over the next five years toward the mid-50% compound annual growth range.
Those targets matter because TSMC sits at the center of the AI hardware cycle. Stronger guidance would support the view that cloud companies and AI developers are still increasing chip orders. A more cautious message, however, could pressure not only TSMC shares but also suppliers tied to its expansion plans.
TSMC capital spending is the key question
While revenue growth is important, TSMC’s capital expenditure outlook may be the most closely watched part of its update. The company’s previous 2026 capital spending guidance stood at $52 billion to $56 billion. Fund managers want to know whether that range will be lifted, maintained, or discussed in more detail.
A higher capital spending framework would likely support equipment suppliers, materials companies, and other firms tied to factory construction and chip production tools. If TSMC keeps the existing range without added clarity, equipment stocks could remain under pressure.
That concern has already appeared in recent trading. Equipment firms have lost ground over the past two weeks as market participants questioned whether order expectations had moved too high. The issue is not whether AI chips require advanced tools. They do. The issue is whether current share prices already reflect too much optimism about future capacity additions.
ASML remains central to that debate. Expectations for 2026 shipments of more than 100 extreme-ultraviolet lithography units have set a high bar. Traders are paying less attention to near-term sales alone and more attention to comments about orders, customer schedules, and capacity planning.
If TSMC signals that customer demand justifies additional spending, equipment names could recover. If management suggests that current spending plans are enough, traders may continue rotating toward chipmakers with more direct earnings leverage.
Texas Instruments draws fresh attention
Texas Instruments also received a more positive response from survey participants, especially within the analog semiconductor group. Analog chips are used in cars, industrial equipment, power systems, communications devices, and a wide range of electronics. They do not attract the same headlines as AI processors, but they are important indicators of broader demand across the economy.
In the survey, 55% of respondents said a positive Texas Instruments report would lift other analog semiconductor stocks. Another 35% expected any benefit to remain mostly company-specific, while 10% said they planned to cut exposure regardless of the report.
Current forecasts point to third-quarter sequential sales growth of about 7%. Some market participants believe that could be revised higher to 9% or 10% if demand continues to improve. Gross margin expectations are near 60.25% to 60.5%.
Several factors are supporting the more constructive view. Texas Instruments has been adjusting prices, improving factory utilization, and benefiting from demand linked to 800-volt technology adoption. That technology is important in electric vehicles and power systems because it can support faster charging, better efficiency, and higher-performance designs.
If pricing and factory utilization improve at the same time, profit leverage could rise quickly. Higher factory use spreads fixed costs over more units, while firmer prices support margins. That combination is one reason analog stocks are attracting renewed attention after a weaker stretch.
Still, the survey showed that not everyone sees a broad sector recovery. The 35% of respondents who expect any Texas Instruments strength to stay company-specific appear to be saying that TXN may be benefiting from its own execution rather than a full demand rebound across all analog chipmakers.
Memory names attract the strongest buying interest
Memory producers drew the highest concentration of fresh buying interest in the survey. About 65% of respondents said they were adding positions in memory names. Another 30% remained positive without increasing exposure, while 5% said the group may be nearing a peak.
The optimism reflects expectations for steady demand through the first half of 2027. Memory chips are central to AI systems because large models require fast access to huge amounts of data. High-bandwidth memory, or HBM, has become especially important for advanced AI accelerators.
Long-term supply agreements with major customers are also improving visibility. These agreements can make revenue and cash flow more predictable in a sector that has historically been highly cyclical. Memory companies often face sharp swings in pricing when supply exceeds demand, but long-term commitments can soften some of that volatility.
Some memory firms were also reported to be considering large share repurchase programs, potentially above 20% of outstanding equity. That would be unusual for a cyclical hardware segment and would signal confidence in future cash generation.
Even so, enthusiasm is not without risk. Market participants are debating rumors of HBM “de-specification,” a term that suggests some customers may be altering specifications, changing product requirements, or pushing back on previously expected configurations. It remains unclear whether the discussion reflects normal commercial negotiation, attempts to secure better pricing, or a real softening in end-market demand.
If the rumors prove to be only bargaining noise, memory stocks may continue to benefit from AI demand and supply discipline. If they point to weaker orders, the group could face a faster reassessment.
AMD event may shape the next AI chip debate
AMD’s Advancing AI 2026 event is another major focus. The survey showed that 50% of respondents expect a positive tone and are preparing long trades. Another 40% are moderately upbeat, while 10% are bracing for disappointment.
The key questions are straightforward. Traders want to see how far AMD can expand its CPU and GPU reach, whether it is winning new clients, and whether average selling prices are improving. They also want details about future manufacturing support from TSMC through 2027.
AMD, led by Lisa Su, has been trying to strengthen its position in AI accelerators and data center processors. The company has gained attention as customers look for alternatives and complements to the most dominant AI chip suppliers. Its ability to secure production capacity at TSMC is therefore critical.
The survey also reflects continued caution toward Intel. Respondents viewed Intel’s manufacturing turnaround as less visible, particularly in foundry services. Intel’s long-term plan depends on improving yields, controlling costs, and delivering chips on time for both internal products and outside customers.
Until that execution path becomes clearer, many respondents indicated they prefer AMD. The rotation shows that traders are rewarding companies with clearer near-term market share opportunities and punishing those still proving their manufacturing strategy.
Recent desktop hardware data also point to uneven competition. AMD’s main rival in graphics has maintained a dominant position, while AMD’s desktop graphics share reportedly fell to a record low near 5%. That sharp gap shows how difficult the competitive landscape remains in some consumer hardware segments, even as AMD works to build momentum in data center and AI products.
Crypto traders watch the chip cycle
The semiconductor outlook also matters for cryptocurrency traders, even though the connection is indirect. Technology stocks often influence broader risk appetite, and digital assets can react when traders reduce exposure to volatile markets. If major chip companies deliver strong earnings and confident guidance, the result could support risk-taking across several asset classes. If the updates disappoint, speculative areas may face pressure.
The link is especially important because AI and crypto both depend on high-performance computing hardware, though in different ways. AI demand is centered on advanced GPUs, custom accelerators, memory, networking, and foundry capacity. Bitcoin mining relies more directly on specialized ASIC machines, electricity costs, and network difficulty.
Recent Bitcoin network data show some cooling in mining pressure. Network difficulty fell by about 5% to roughly 127.17 trillion, while total processing power was near 866 exahashes per second. A decline in difficulty can occur when some miners reduce activity or when hashrate growth slows.
Lower difficulty may help active miners by making it easier to earn rewards, but it can also signal stress among less efficient operators. If miners face pressure from weaker coin prices, high energy costs, or hardware financing needs, some may sell coin reserves to raise cash. That selling can add short-term supply to the market.
For cryptocurrency traders, the main point is that semiconductor earnings could affect liquidity and sentiment beyond the chip sector. A negative surprise from major hardware names could lead to broader risk reduction. A strong update from TSMC, Texas Instruments, AMD, or memory suppliers could have the opposite effect by reinforcing confidence in technology demand.
Selectivity defines the summer trade
The survey’s clearest message is that AI excitement has not disappeared, but it has become more disciplined. Traders are favoring businesses with direct growth, pricing power, production visibility, and stronger cash-flow prospects. They are less willing to support companies that depend on future spending plans without clear confirmation.
TSMC remains the most important near-term signal because its results can confirm or challenge the strength of AI-related demand across the supply chain. Texas Instruments will help clarify whether analog chips are seeing a real recovery or only company-specific improvement. Memory producers are in favor, but HBM uncertainty remains a risk. AMD has a chance to strengthen its AI story, while Intel still needs to show clearer progress in its manufacturing turnaround.
The next several corporate updates may decide whether the semiconductor rally broadens or narrows further. If TSMC raises growth expectations and supports its capital spending outlook, confidence in the AI hardware cycle could deepen. If it keeps spending plans unchanged without added detail, equipment suppliers may remain under pressure.
For now, the semiconductor market is not rejecting the AI theme. It is demanding proof.
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