France’s gambling regulator has ordered internet service providers in the country to block access to Polymarket, escalating its campaign against the blockchain-based prediction market just days before the platform’s largest event to date is due to settle.
The order, issued on July 16 by the president of the Autorité nationale des jeux, or ANJ, directs domestic internet providers to restrict French access to the site. The regulator said Polymarket is offering gambling services in France without authorization and that the platform may expose users to financial losses. It also cited concerns about possible manipulation in some markets, including weather-related bets that have drawn the attention of prosecutors.
The decision means French users will be barred from accessing Polymarket as the platform prepares to close its World Cup Winner market after Sunday’s final between Spain and Argentina at MetLife Stadium. That contract has become Polymarket’s biggest market so far, with more than $4 billion in value tied to the event. A comparable contract on Kalshi has drawn about $1.27 billion.
The French order marks one of the most forceful actions yet by a European regulator against a crypto-based prediction market. It also signals that authorities are increasingly treating event-contract platforms as gambling operators when users can stake money on the outcome of sports, politics, weather, elections, or other real-world events.
The ANJ said access will remain suspended until Polymarket complies with French gambling law.
Regulator says Polymarket promoted illegal gambling
According to the ANJ, Polymarket’s services fall under France’s gambling rules because users place monetary stakes on uncertain outcomes. The regulator said the platform does not hold the authorization required to offer such services to people in France.
The agency also said that even showing live odds or market prices to French users may amount to promoting unauthorized gambling. Under French law, the promotion of unlicensed gambling services can carry fines of up to €100,000, or about $114,000.
The regulator’s concern is not limited to whether French users were able to place trades. It said French visitors continued to view prices and live odds on Polymarket even after earlier restrictions were supposed to prevent domestic participation. In the regulator’s view, that visibility still encouraged engagement with an illegal betting product.
Data cited by the ANJ showed that Polymarket received 578,751 visits from 205,057 unique users in France in June 2026. The regulator said those users were still able to view live markets, even if full trading access had been limited.
That finding appears to have been central to the latest order. The ANJ had already taken action against Polymarket in November 2024, when it issued a formal notice requiring the company to prevent French participation. The new block suggests the regulator believes those earlier measures were not sufficient.
Concerns over possible market manipulation
The ANJ said its investigation also uncovered signs of potential tampering in weather-related markets listed on Polymarket. The regulator did not provide full details of the alleged activity but said the matter had been referred to the Paris prosecutor’s cybercrime division.
The prosecutor’s cybercrime unit opened an inquiry on May 4, according to the regulator. That inquiry adds a criminal-investigation element to what had already been a regulatory enforcement matter.
Prediction markets allow users to buy and sell positions tied to whether an event will occur. In theory, market prices reflect the crowd’s implied probability of a given outcome. In practice, regulators worry that some markets can be vulnerable to manipulation, especially when the underlying event is thinly observed, poorly verified, or influenced by a small number of participants.
Sports and election outcomes are usually determined by widely observed public results. Weather markets, by contrast, can depend on specific data sources, reporting locations, measurement rules, or settlement criteria. That can create disputes over whether a market was fairly designed, whether its data feed was reliable, and whether some participants had an unfair ability to influence or anticipate the result.
The French regulator’s reference to weather-related bets indicates that its concerns go beyond licensing. It is also examining whether the structure of certain markets creates risks for users and potentially for market integrity.
World Cup market raises the stakes
The timing of the French block is especially striking because it comes ahead of the settlement of Polymarket’s World Cup Winner market, the platform’s largest event so far.
The market, valued at more than $4 billion, is scheduled to settle after Sunday’s final between Spain and Argentina at MetLife Stadium. For Polymarket, the final represents a major test of its ability to handle a high-volume global event at scale. For regulators, it represents the kind of mass-market exposure that makes prediction platforms harder to ignore.
Prediction markets have grown rapidly because they offer fast-moving prices on outcomes that attract broad public interest. Major sports tournaments, national elections, central bank decisions, court rulings, entertainment events, and extreme weather events can all become tradable markets.
World Cup-related activity has been especially powerful. Recent market data show that combined monthly volume across major prediction platforms reached $44.8 billion in June, a 75% increase from May. Polymarket’s annualized revenue reportedly surpassed $1 billion during the surge.
Those figures help explain why regulators are now responding more aggressively. What once looked like a niche crypto product has become a large consumer-facing market, with traffic and trading volumes comparable to established betting and financial platforms.
France follows other national blocks
France is not acting alone. The Czech Republic ordered domestic internet providers to restrict access to Polymarket on July 13. Portugal imposed a similar restriction in January. Brazil introduced broader prohibitions covering prediction markets in April.
The sequence of actions shows that national authorities are increasingly moving against platforms that operate across borders without local gambling licenses. While blockchain-based prediction markets often describe themselves as peer-to-peer or decentralized, regulators are focusing on the practical outcome: users stake money on uncertain events and can win or lose depending on the result.
That approach places such platforms closer to gambling operators in the eyes of many authorities, even when the technical structure differs from a traditional sportsbook. The use of digital assets, smart contracts, or blockchain settlement does not automatically exempt a platform from local wagering laws.
For regulators, the main questions are whether users are risking money, whether outcomes are uncertain, whether the operator is available to local residents, and whether the activity is licensed. If those elements are present, authorities may treat the service as gambling regardless of how it is branded.
Earlier French scrutiny began after U.S. election wagers
France’s scrutiny of Polymarket dates back to 2024, after a French trader using the name “Fredi9999” reportedly earned about $79 million from wagers linked to the U.S. presidential election.
That episode drew attention because it combined three elements that regulators watch closely: large individual profits, political-event betting, and cross-border participation by a domestic user on an offshore platform. It became an early sign that prediction markets could attract substantial French participation even when the platforms were not licensed in France.
The November 2024 formal notice that followed required Polymarket to prevent French users from participating. The latest internet-provider block suggests that the ANJ concluded the prior restrictions did not go far enough or were not fully effective.
Polymarket has not issued a public statement regarding the current order.
Why access blocks matter
Internet-provider blocks are a blunt but increasingly common regulatory tool. Rather than relying only on the platform to identify and reject users from a restricted jurisdiction, authorities instruct local providers to limit access from inside the country.
Such blocks can reduce casual traffic, cut off direct access for many users, and send a clear warning that a service is considered illegal in the domestic market. They also create pressure on platforms to negotiate compliance arrangements, apply for authorization where possible, or strengthen geolocation restrictions.
However, access blocks are rarely perfect. Users may seek technical workarounds, and offshore platforms can change domains or access routes. That makes enforcement an ongoing process rather than a one-time event.
The ANJ’s statement suggests it is focused not only on trading activity but also on visibility. If French users can still view markets, prices, and odds, the regulator may regard that as promotion of illegal gambling. That interpretation widens the scope of compliance obligations for prediction-market operators. It is not enough merely to prevent order placement if the site continues to market or display wagering opportunities to users in a banned jurisdiction.
Consumer protection is central to the dispute
French authorities have framed the case largely around consumer protection. The ANJ said Polymarket may expose users to monetary losses and operates outside the country’s regulated gambling framework.
Licensed gambling operators in France are subject to rules covering advertising, age checks, responsible gambling tools, anti-money-laundering controls, and protections for people at risk of gambling harm. Platforms operating without authorization are not subject to the same supervision.
That concern has become more prominent as traffic to prediction markets has increased. Authorities have also pointed to the broader problem of illegal gambling activity. State reports have estimated that the unlicensed betting sector can generate up to €1.5 billion in untaxed revenue each year, depriving the state of tax income and placing users outside regulated protections.
France has also taken enforcement actions in the wider gambling sector. The watchdog has previously imposed a fine of €800,000 on one operator for failing to adequately protect vulnerable users. More than 85,000 people are currently registered on the country’s national self-exclusion list, underscoring why regulators are sensitive to platforms that bypass local safeguards.
Those details help explain why the ANJ is treating prediction markets as more than a technical innovation. From the regulator’s perspective, the product may create the same risks as conventional betting: rapid losses, addictive behavior, misleading promotions, and disputes over payouts or market settlement.
Prediction markets face a regulatory identity problem
The central challenge for platforms such as Polymarket is that they sit between categories. Supporters often describe them as information markets, arguing that prices can reflect collective expectations more efficiently than polls or expert forecasts. Regulators, however, typically assess them through the lens of wagering law when real money is at stake.
That tension is especially sharp in Europe, where gambling is regulated primarily at the national level. A platform may be accessible online across the region, but legal approval must often be obtained country by country. A service that is tolerated in one jurisdiction may be banned in another.
For traders, the difference can be significant. A market that appears global may become inaccessible depending on local law, licensing status, or enforcement action. Accounts, balances, withdrawals, and access to open positions can become complicated when a platform faces a sudden block in a user’s country.
Platforms face their own operational risks. They must decide whether to build jurisdiction-by-jurisdiction compliance systems, restrict access from certain markets, seek licenses, or avoid products that local regulators are most likely to treat as gambling. Big event-based markets may drive revenue, but they also attract legal scrutiny.
Pressure likely to continue after the World Cup
The French block is unlikely to end the broader debate over prediction markets. If anything, the scale of World Cup activity may accelerate regulatory attention in other countries.
Authorities are watching how event-contract platforms handle high-volume markets, disputed outcomes, user protections, and access from restricted jurisdictions. The more these platforms resemble mainstream gambling businesses in size and public visibility, the more likely they are to face enforcement demands similar to those imposed on sportsbooks and betting exchanges.
For Polymarket, the immediate issue is compliance in France. The ANJ has said access will remain suspended until the company aligns with French requirements. That could mean stronger geoblocking, limits on market visibility, licensing discussions, or other measures acceptable to the regulator.
For the wider prediction-market industry, the message is becoming clearer: decentralization and crypto settlement do not remove the need to address local gambling rules. National regulators are showing they are prepared to act against platforms that serve domestic users without authorization, particularly when volumes surge around major public events.
The French order also highlights the growing conflict between borderless digital markets and national consumer-protection regimes. Prediction markets may operate online, settle on blockchain rails, and attract users worldwide, but regulators still enforce laws within their own territories.
As the World Cup Winner market approaches settlement, Polymarket faces both a milestone and a setback. The platform has demonstrated enormous demand for event-based trading, yet France’s block shows that regulatory acceptance may be harder to win than market share.
Curious about regulated alternatives to prediction markets? Explore compliant event contracts for safer, rules-aligned speculation opportunities.
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