Ether price lags Ethereum network activity growth

Ether’s 57% price slide since August 2025 to about $2,000 does not reflect the strength of Ethereum’s underlying network activity, Standard Chartered said in a new report, drawing a parallel with how Amazon was punished in the 2001 dot‑com crash despite rising usage.

The bank kept its ether price targets unchanged at $4,000 by end‑2026 and $40,000 by 2030, and said it expects the ETH/BTC ratio to recover toward its 2021 peak of about 0.08 before the end of the decade.

Network activity near records as price breaks support

Geoff Kendrick, head of digital assets research at Standard Chartered, said Ethereum’s internal metrics — including transaction volumes and total value locked (TVL) — remain near all‑time highs even as price weakens.

Ethereum processed more than 200 million transactions in the first quarter of 2026, the highest quarterly level on record and a 43% increase from the prior quarter, the report noted. Yet ether recently broke below the $2,000 support zone amid broader risk‑off sentiment.

Ethereum’s underperformance is most visible against Bitcoin. The ETH/BTC ratio has fallen roughly 37% since August 2025 and hit a year‑to‑date low near 0.027 on May 21, 2026, as institutional capital flows have favored Bitcoin this year.

Comparison to Amazon during the dot‑com downturn

Standard Chartered likened today’s ether market to Amazon’s share performance in 2001, arguing that current pricing reflects a “fundamental disconnect” between market valuation and growing network utility.

As during the dot‑com collapse, Kendrick said the market appears to be discounting a platform whose usage and economic activity are expanding, even while headline price performance is negative. He argued that Ethereum’s on‑chain data offers “longer‑term support” for price recovery, despite bearish short‑term technicals.

Stablecoins and tokenization central to long‑term thesis

A core pillar of the bank’s outlook is Ethereum’s role as the main settlement layer for stablecoins and tokenized real‑world assets (RWAs).

Roughly 54% of all stablecoins operate on Ethereum, accounting for nearly one‑third of the network’s 2026 transaction count and about 60% of its TVL, according to the report. Today’s stablecoin market capitalization, estimated at just over $320 billion, is projected by the bank to grow around six‑fold to about $2 trillion by 2028.

Ethereum’s mainnet is already settling well over $150 billion of stablecoin supply, which Standard Chartered says reinforces its position as the base layer for “digital dollars” and similar assets.

RWA market seen growing fiftyfold

The market for tokenized RWAs — such as tokenized treasuries, funds and other financial instruments — has expanded to an estimated $34 billion as of May 2026, nearly five times larger than at the start of 2025, the report said.

Kendrick projects that the RWA sector could scale roughly fiftyfold to $2 trillion by the end of 2028. Ethereum currently supports about 62% of those tokenized assets and 68% of onchain loans tied to them, with the bank arguing that this dominance is likely to drive further activity and value accrual on the network.

Ethereum economic zone aims to cut fragmentation and bridge risk

Standard Chartered highlighted the emergence of the Ethereum Economic Zone (EEZ) as an additional structural tailwind.

Initially discussed as a planned initiative, the EEZ formally launched at an industry conference in late March 2026. Developed by Gnosis and Zisk with support from the Ethereum Foundation, the framework is designed to unify more than 20 Ethereum Layer‑2 networks that collectively secure over $40 billion in assets.

By enabling these Layer‑2s to communicate more seamlessly and share liquidity, the EEZ aims to reduce fragmentation across platforms and lessen reliance on traditional blockchain bridges, which have been frequent targets of security exploits.

Regulatory clarity in the us seen as supportive

The report also cited regulatory developments in the United States as a positive backdrop for Ethereum’s long‑term adoption.

On May 14, 2026, the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act passed the Senate Banking Committee in a 15‑9 bipartisan vote and now moves to the full Senate. The bill seeks to clarify jurisdictional boundaries between the Securities and Exchange Commission and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission.

Kendrick said such clarity could create a more predictable operating environment for developers and market infrastructure, encouraging further growth in decentralized finance and broader Ethereum usage.

Market focus on price levels versus on‑chain growth

Despite the negative price action and weaker ETH/BTC ratio, Standard Chartered argued that the building blocks of its bullish ether thesis are “accelerating faster than projected,” pointing to record transactions, expanding stablecoin settlement, and rapid RWA growth.

In the near term, traders are watching whether ether can reclaim the $2,150–$2,200 range to invalidate the latest downtrend. The bank’s report suggests that market participants will need to weigh short‑term bearish signals against what it describes as “tangible, broad‑based growth” in Ethereum network adoption.