England vs Croatia football match prediction

England beat Croatia 7-0 in Rijeka on October 3. That result showed how badly Croatia’s defense came apart on the night, but Croatia responded three days later by leading Spain until the second half. The Wembley question is more specific than whether England can repeat seven goals: when an English cross is cleared, can Croatia find Mateo Kovačić before England collect the next ball and attack again?

Competition: UEFA Nations League 2026/27, League A
Matchweek: Group A3, Matchday 5
Date and time: November 12, 2026, 19:45 Greenwich Mean Time, 19:45 UTC
Place: Wembley Stadium, London, England

England are second in the group on nine points, three behind Spain. Avoiding defeat would secure their quarterfinal place. Croatia are third on three points and will be without Ivan Perišić against England after his red card against Spain. His absence matters because he finished the move that gave Croatia the lead in Split. England have several proven ways into the box; Croatia’s strongest reply depends on turning a recovery into a supported Kovačić run.

What is happening before England vs Croatia

Thomas Tuchel’s England have won three of four group matches, scoring 14 goals and conceding three. They lost 3-2 at home to Spain, then beat Czechia twice and Croatia once. Ten of the 14 goals came in the wins over Croatia and Czechia at Wembley. The results establish England’s attacking range, though they do not mean every opponent will leave the same space Croatia did in Rijeka.

Croatia have won one of four under Slaven Bilić. Three of their matches were against England or Spain, which makes the goal difference a blunt measure of their ability against the rest of the group. Their 2-1 loss to Spain in Split is the better countercase to the 7-0. Kovačić carried the ball forward, Igor Matanović shot, and Perišić headed in the rebound. Spain equalized after halftime and completed the comeback after Perišić was sent off.

Both coaches have announced squads. Tuchel has recalled Declan Rice and Djed Spence, while Myles Lewis-Skelly is suspended for this match. Bukayo Saka, who scored twice in Rijeka, is not in England’s squad; the team announcement does not give a reason. Croatia have named Perišić among their 25 for the international window, but his dismissal rules him out against England. Andrej Kramarić, Marin Pongračić and Franjo Ivanović are absent from the final group because of health or injury problems.

England team analysis

England created their best chances in Rijeka by giving the player delivering from wide more than one target. Harry Kane attacked different parts of the box, while Jude Bellingham and Anthony Gordon arrived on a later pass.

Likely formation: 4-2-3-1 (predicted)

Possible XI: Pickford; Alexander-Arnold, Konsa, Guéhi, Hall; Rice, Anderson; Rogers, Jude Bellingham, Gordon; Kane (predicted)

Rice returns after missing the previous camp, but a call-up does not guarantee he will start. James Garner could partner Elliot Anderson if Tuchel makes a different midfield choice. Morgan Rogers is one right-sided option; Eberechi Eze would offer a different combination around Bellingham. Saka’s absence also removes the finisher of two Rijeka goals, so England should not assume an identical front line will produce identical attacks.

• Different points of delivery: In Rijeka, Bellingham released Gordon, Quansah crossed for Gordon at the back post, and Anderson found Kane arriving from the other side. Croatia could not prepare for one repeated cross.

• Kane’s changing position: He can connect a move outside the center backs and still arrive to finish. Against Czechia, he scored from a cross and a corner, giving England an option when open-play space narrowed.

• Second attacks: England are difficult to contain when a cleared cross reaches Anderson or Rice and the ball moves quickly to the other flank.

• A pass Croatia can press: England’s defeat to Spain included a costly Guéhi turnover. Moving both fullbacks forward before the first pass is secure would give Kovačić a similar opening.

England’s strength is the number of players who can create or finish the next action. Their main obligation is to keep enough cover behind those players when a delivery fails.

Croatia team analysis

Croatia showed against Spain that they can defend in a more coherent shape than they managed in Rijeka. Taking that shape to Wembley requires an outlet, particularly without Perišić on the left.

Likely formation: 4-3-3, narrowing without the ball (predicted)

Possible XI: Livaković; Stanišić, Šutalo, Vušković, Gvardiol; Jakić, Modrić, Kovačić; Vlašić, Matanović, Baturina (predicted)

Every player in that XI is in the final squad, but Bilić has not named a team. He has said Dominik Livaković’s lack of club minutes complicates the goalkeeper decision; Dominik Kotarski and Ivor Pandur are alternatives. Gvardiol could move into central defense, with Ivan Smolčić used at fullback. Marin Šotiček is a new wide option who can run behind England’s defense. Perišić’s suspension leaves Bilić deciding which parts of his left-sided job to divide among the available players.

• Kovačić’s carry: Croatia’s opener against Spain followed his advance through midfield and Matanović’s shot. He can move the ball past England’s first challenge if a runner is available for the next pass.

• A regain near the front: Matanović won possession before Luka Modrić scored against Czechia in Prague. Croatia need those recoveries to lead somewhere beyond another hurried shot.

• Support for the wide player: Perišić crossed for Marco Pašalić’s winner against Czechia. Without him at Wembley, the replacement must still track England’s fullback and offer a target when Croatia break.

• The missed chance in Rijeka: Kovačić won the ball in England’s penalty area, went around Pickford and shot wide. Croatia were capable of creating an opening even during a heavy defeat; they did not turn it into a goal.

Croatia’s plan needs Kovačić to progress the ball and teammates close enough to use his work. If his carry ends without a pass, England can begin another attack against a retreating defense.

Line-by-line comparison

England’s advantage sits in their varied deliveries and the players arriving to meet them. Kovačić is Croatia’s strongest counterweapon because one clean carry can make an advanced English fullback defend toward his own goal. That possibility deserves more weight than a simple count of table edges, even after the 7-0.

Key tactical battle

England can begin on either flank. A fullback advances, Gordon or Rogers receives outside Croatia’s midfield, and the delivery comes while Kane and a later runner occupy different spaces in the box. If Croatia’s fullback steps out, a center back must decide whether to follow the nearest runner or hold the central lane. Jakić needs to protect the pass toward Bellingham so a cleared cross does not immediately become a better chance inside.

The clearance is Croatia’s opportunity. If it reaches Kovačić with a teammate ahead of him, he can carry into the space left by the advancing fullback. Matanović or a wide runner then has to make the next pass available before Rice and Anderson close him down. Croatia’s goal against Spain showed the value of that progression. England winning the same second ball would send another delivery toward Kane before Croatia can reorganize.

This is why the Rijeka score cannot be used as a complete forecast. England’s routes into the area were repeatable in that game. Croatia’s improved structure in Split showed a different defensive response, but they now have to reproduce it without Perišić and still keep an outlet. The first 20 minutes should reveal whether both parts of that answer are available.

What England need to do

• Change the arrival point: Kane can attack the near or far post, while Bellingham or Gordon arrives later for a clearance that stays inside the area.

• Keep a fullback behind the ball: Hall and Alexander-Arnold can each advance, but sending both forward would give Kovačić more space for the first carry.

• Secure the return pass: Guéhi and the holding midfielders should avoid a pressured ball toward their own goal like the one Spain punished.

• Move the point of the cross: If Croatia crowd Kane, Gordon or Rogers can reach the byline or cut the ball back rather than deliver into the same marked space.

What Croatia need to do

• Give Kovačić a next pass: Matanović or a wide forward must run ahead of him as soon as he moves past England’s first challenge.

• Keep Jakić central: Letting him chase every wide delivery would free Bellingham between midfield and defense.

• Replace Perišić’s responsibilities: The left-sided starter must help against Alexander-Arnold and still offer a way out when Croatia win the ball.

Toobit Prediction Market angle

The team sheets will clarify England’s holding pair and right-sided attacker. For Croatia, the goalkeeper, Gvardiol’s position and Perišić’s replacement will show how Bilić intends to protect the box and escape it.

Early in the match, watch whether England’s crosses find Kane and a second runner while Croatia’s defenders are facing their own goal. A delivery won cleanly by a Croatian defender is different from a clearance that lands at Bellingham’s feet.

Croatia’s first pass after that clearance is just as revealing. If Kovačić repeatedly receives facing forward with Matanović ahead of him, the home advantage becomes less secure. These are match observations, not evidence that a market for this exact fixture is listed.

Match scenarios

Scenario 1: Croatia score first

This would put the England prediction under the greatest pressure. Bilić could hold Jakić close to the center backs and keep his fullbacks more selective, forcing England to deliver against a set defense. The lead would be useful only if Croatia continued finding Kovačić or another forward outlet. A succession of clearances straight back to England would make the score fragile.

England’s response should involve a different receiving space, not simply another player next to Kane. Bellingham can work outside Jakić’s screen while Gordon changes his run toward the far post. If both England fullbacks advance at once, however, Kovačić has the counterattack Croatia want. 1-1 becomes a strong alternative; 1-2 is possible if Croatia protect the lead and create a second supported break.

Scenario 2: Level at halftime

A level score would mean little without the chance pattern. England repeatedly reaching Kane and Bellingham points toward a second-half breakthrough. If Croatia are making those deliveries contested and carrying the ball out, the draw has a stronger basis. 1-0 or 1-1 fits the two versions of this state.

Scenario 3: England score first

Croatia would need to progress earlier and send a runner beyond England’s midfield. That opens space around the screen Bellingham used in Rijeka. England should still keep cover behind the attack, but the match could move toward 2-0 or 3-1 as Croatia push higher. Neither score assumes another seven-goal performance.

Key players to watch

1. Harry Kane of England

Kane scored from a Rogers cross and a Hall corner against Czechia, having also finished from varied service in Rijeka. Croatia must account for his movement across the center backs without letting Bellingham arrive untracked behind him. Kane is most useful when a teammate occupies the space he leaves; repeated deep receptions with nobody running beyond would make England easier to contain.

2. Jude Bellingham of England

Bellingham’s passing helped create early chances for Gordon and Kane in Rijeka, and he finished a recycled ball himself. His choice at Wembley is whether to release a runner immediately or wait outside Croatia’s midfield screen for the next delivery. Receiving facing forward makes either decision dangerous. If Jakić keeps him receiving with his back to goal, England may be pushed wide without gaining a better angle.

3. Anthony Gordon of England

Gordon’s runs into the far side of the area troubled Croatia in Rijeka. He can also supply Bellingham after reaching the byline. Against Stanišić, he needs to time those runs while England build on the opposite side; standing wide beside the fullback gives Croatia an easier defensive assignment.

4. Mateo Kovačić of Croatia

The carry before Croatia’s goal against Spain is the clearest example of how Bilić’s side can leave their own half without a long clearance. Kovačić also created a chance for himself in Rijeka but missed the finish. His first responsibility at Wembley is to beat England’s nearest midfielder and find a runner before the next challenge arrives. A carry with no receiver at its end gives England the ball back.

5. Kristijan Jakić of Croatia

Jakić protects the space Bellingham wants to use. Staying central may mean accepting a cross from wide; following every delivery outward risks allowing an even better pass between the lines. His position matters most after Croatia have cleared once, when England try to return the ball before their defenders can step out.

Prediction

England have more documented ways to reach the area than Croatia have shown ways to protect it. The 7-0 away win demonstrated those routes, although Croatia’s performance against Spain argues against treating that score as a template. Kovačić gives the visitors a credible outlet; Perišić’s suspension removes the player who finished their best recent move.

Probability view:

• England win: 70%

• Draw: 20%

• Croatia win: 10%

Main score prediction:

England 2-0 Croatia

Alternative score predictions:

• England 1-1 Croatia if Jakić keeps the central lane closed and Kovačić repeatedly carries Croatia beyond the first press.

• England 3-1 Croatia if an early England goal forces Croatia forward and creates more room for Gordon and Bellingham.

The 2-0 call expects England to create from more than one delivery while keeping enough midfield cover to limit Croatia’s breaks. If Croatia protect the first cross and make their next pass count, the draw becomes a better fit.

Match outlook

England are the clear choice, with several players able to supply Kane or arrive after him. Rice’s return offers another way to protect those attacks.

Croatia’s best case resembles their first half against Spain: Jakić stays central, Kovačić advances through the first challenge, and a forward is ready for his pass. Repeated success with that sequence would narrow England’s edge far more than the 7-0 suggests.

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Toobit Prediction Market presents event-based outcomes across sports and other global events where available. For England vs Croatia, the useful reference points are England’s midfield selection, Croatia’s replacement for Perišić, and whether Kovačić can receive the first clearance facing forward.

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