The Coinbase Bitcoin Premium Index has stayed below zero for 46 straight days since May 19, according to Coinglass, setting a new record for the longest negative streak in the indicator’s history and underscoring continued weakness in U.S. demand for Bitcoin.
The previous record was 40 consecutive days between January 16 and February 24 this year. That earlier stretch had already exceeded the roughly 30-day period of negative premiums seen during the October 2024 market crash. The latest run is now longer and is occurring alongside sharp declines in Bitcoin, Ether, and other major tokens, raising concerns that the current bear cycle may not yet be over.
During the same period, Bitcoin fell below the key $58,000 level, while Ether dropped under $1,600. Both thresholds had been closely watched by market participants because they overlap with important technical zones and psychological support levels. Analysts said the timing of a durable bottom remains uncertain, as technical indicators, on-chain data, ETF flows, and corporate balance-sheet activity continue to point to fragile conditions.
The pressure intensified in early June after Strategy, one of the largest corporate holders of Bitcoin, sold 32 BTC. The sale was small compared with the company’s total holdings, but it carried symbolic weight because it was Strategy’s first Bitcoin sale in three years. The move coincided with persistent net outflows from U.S.-based spot Bitcoin ETFs, deepening the sell-off across major digital assets including Bitcoin, Ether, and Solana.
Bitcoin fell nearly 16% in the first week of June, briefly dropping below $60,000. That marked its worst weekly performance since the 2022 collapse of FTX. The decline pushed Bitcoin more than 50% below its 2025 peak of more than $126,000 and forced the market to reassess whether the current cycle had entered a deeper capitulation phase.
Outflows from spot Bitcoin ETFs added to the pressure. During a 13-session stretch, the funds recorded about $5.5 billion in withdrawals. Bitcoin also slipped below its 200-week moving average, a level widely followed by traders as a long-term cycle marker. Historically, extended periods below that average have often been linked with late-stage bear markets, although they have not always marked an immediate bottom.
The Coinbase Premium Index currently stands at around minus 0.123%. The index compares Bitcoin prices on Coinbase, a platform heavily used by U.S.-based market participants, with prices on global exchanges. A negative reading indicates that Bitcoin is trading at a lower price on Coinbase than elsewhere, suggesting weaker U.S. buying pressure relative to global demand.
Analysts said Bitcoin may need to recover toward roughly $77,000 for the premium to return to positive territory, depending on broader market conditions and exchange spreads. Until then, the negative premium is likely to remain a warning sign for traders watching U.S. demand as a key indicator of market recovery.
Coinbase premium signals weak U.S. demand
The extended negative reading in the Coinbase Premium Index is one of the clearest signs that U.S.-based demand has weakened. In previous bull-market phases, a positive Coinbase premium often reflected aggressive buying from American institutions, funds, and larger traders. When the premium turns negative for a long period, it usually suggests the opposite: domestic demand is lagging global markets.
This pattern has become especially important since the launch of U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs. Those products opened a major channel for traditional capital to enter the Bitcoin market, but they have also become a source of selling pressure when redemptions accelerate. In June, spot Bitcoin ETFs saw large withdrawals, and the combined effect of ETF outflows and weak Coinbase pricing created a feedback loop that weighed on market sentiment.
The downturn came as capital rotated into other sectors. Chip-focused ETFs attracted about $20 billion, while digital asset funds experienced sizable withdrawals. That rotation suggests traders were reducing exposure to crypto assets while chasing stronger momentum in technology sectors tied to artificial intelligence and semiconductors.
The shift does not necessarily mean long-term interest in digital assets has disappeared. However, it does show that crypto markets are currently competing for capital in a more selective environment. When liquidity becomes more cautious, assets with high volatility often suffer first. Bitcoin and Ether, despite being the two largest crypto assets, have not been immune.
The market saw a brief sign of relief on July 2, when U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $221.7 million in net inflows. That marked the first positive day after a 10-day withdrawal streak that had drained more than $2.7 billion. The inflow was welcomed by traders, but analysts warned that one day of positive flows is not enough to confirm a trend reversal.
For now, the ETF flow picture remains mixed. Sustained inflows would likely be needed to restore confidence and offset selling from long-term holders, miners, corporate treasuries, and funds seeking liquidity.
Strategy sale adds symbolic pressure
Strategy’s sale of 32 BTC in early June helped accelerate negative sentiment, even though the amount sold was modest relative to the company’s broader Bitcoin position. The significance came from the fact that Strategy had not sold Bitcoin in three years and has long been viewed as one of the strongest corporate supporters of the asset.
The sale raised questions about whether corporate Bitcoin strategies are becoming more flexible after years of accumulation. Some market participants interpreted the move as a risk-management decision rather than a loss of confidence in Bitcoin. Others saw it as a sign that even major corporate holders may need to manage liquidity during periods of market stress.
The pressure was also reflected in Strategy’s preferred stock, STRC. On June 18, STRC closed at $89, its lowest level since its initial public offering. By June 26, it had fallen further to $73. The decline added to concerns that the market was repricing assets linked to corporate Bitcoin exposure.
Strategy later announced a $1 billion digital securities repurchase program and a $1.25 billion Bitcoin liquidation plan. Those steps temporarily lifted STRC back above $87 and helped stabilize sentiment around the company. Following its financing actions, Strategy’s reserves rose to $2.55 billion.
Analysts said Strategy’s equity-linked indicators remain important because the company has become a proxy for corporate Bitcoin exposure. Some traders now view a sustained recovery in STRC, especially a move back toward $100, as one potential signal that broader market stress is easing.
Long-term Bitcoin holders face record losses
On-chain data shows that long-term Bitcoin holders are under significant pressure. On June 25, data showed that 10.83 million BTC were held at a loss, surpassing the previous peak of 10.5 million BTC seen during earlier bear-market lows. Around 14.8 million BTC, or roughly 37% of long-term holdings, were underwater at that point.
Current figures show that long-term holders control about 16.61 million BTC, with an average acquisition cost near $49,700. That cost basis has become an important level for market watchers. If Bitcoin were to trade meaningfully below the average purchase price of long-term holders, further selling pressure could emerge from participants who had previously been considered resilient.
At the same time, high levels of unrealized losses can also signal that a market is nearing capitulation. During previous bear cycles, bottoming phases often occurred when a large share of the supply had moved into loss and weak hands had already exited. The challenge is that capitulation can last longer than expected, especially when liquidity remains thin.
The Long-Term Holder Spent Output Profit Ratio, or LTH-SOPR, also shows stress. This metric tracks whether long-term holders are selling coins at a profit or a loss. It fell to 0.615 on June 30, its lowest level since July 2023. A reading below 1 means coins are being sold at a loss. The deeper the reading falls, the more severe the realized losses become.
Coinglass data also showed that realized loss-to-profit ratios have reached new lows, consistent with capitulation levels last seen in mid-2023, when Bitcoin traded near $26,000. Analysts said this does not guarantee an immediate recovery, but it does suggest that selling is becoming increasingly painful and may be approaching a stage where forced liquidation starts to fade.
Ether whales move into loss territory
Ether has also come under heavy pressure. The second-largest digital asset fell below $1,600 during the recent sell-off and saw its market capitalization temporarily drop below $185 billion before recovering to around $207 billion.
Large Ether holders, often called whales, entered loss territory for the first time since 2019. Three whale cohorts, defined as wallets holding between 1,000 ETH and more than 100,000 ETH each, all turned negative. Their unrealized profit ratios ranged from minus 0.05 to minus 0.26, indicating that even large holders with significant capital are now facing unrealized losses.
The pressure was visible in recent selling. Over the past week, large holders sold about 550,000 ETH, worth roughly $880 million. That added supply to the market at a time when sentiment was already weak and liquidity was uneven.
Ether also recorded three consecutive negative quarterly closes for the first time, adding to concerns about medium-term momentum. Unlike Bitcoin, which is heavily shaped by ETF flows and corporate treasury activity, Ether’s market also depends on network usage, staking dynamics, decentralized finance activity, and broader demand for smart-contract applications.
Network data has shown signs of slowing. The 14-day moving average of active Ether addresses declined by about 46% from its peak in early February 2026. Lower address activity can point to reduced user engagement and transaction demand, although it may also reflect migration to layer-2 networks or temporary changes in on-chain behavior.
There are some conflicting signals. The number of addresses holding between 1,000 and 10,000 ETH rose sharply at the end of June. That suggests at least some large traders were accumulating Ether during the downturn, even as other whale groups reduced exposure. This split behavior makes the near-term outlook more difficult to read.
Technical levels remain critical
Bitcoin’s recent move below its 200-week moving average added to bearish sentiment, but the asset has since regained parity with several historical long-term averages. The four-year moving average and the 200-week moving average are watched closely because they smooth out short-term volatility and help identify major cycle zones.
Falling below those measures is often seen as a sign of deep market stress. Regaining them can be an early step toward stabilization, but analysts said confirmation would require stronger follow-through. A short rebound without higher volume or stronger ETF inflows may not be enough to reverse the downtrend.
The $58,000 level remains an important near-term support zone. If Bitcoin can hold above that area and reclaim the $62,800 to $65,000 range, traders may begin to view the market as stabilizing. A move through that range could reduce downside pressure and encourage short-term buyers back into the market.
If $58,000 fails, however, analysts said Bitcoin could revisit the low $50,000s. Several projections place potential downside targets between $42,000 and $51,000, depending on the model used. Those levels would represent deeper stress but would also move Bitcoin closer to areas historically associated with stronger long-term accumulation.
Ether faces its own technical challenge. Holding above the $1,600 area would help stabilize sentiment, while a sustained move below that level could open the door to further declines. A recovery in network activity and stronger demand from large holders would likely be needed to support a more durable rebound.
Bottom forecasts remain divided
Market forecasts remain split on when the bear phase could end. TrendResearch’s Yilihu suggested that Bitcoin may form a bottom during July or August, with potential lows between $43,000 and $51,000. That forecast is based on current weakness in technical indicators, on-chain losses, and the pace of recent selling.
Jiang of LBT Pool offered a more cautious timeline, forecasting a possible bottom between October and December in the $42,000 to $44,000 range. That view is based partly on correlations with Strategy’s equity valuation metrics and the relationship between corporate Bitcoin exposure and broader market cycles.
Both projections point to the possibility of further downside before a sustained recovery begins. The main difference is timing. One view sees the market approaching a bottom in the next one to two months, while the other expects weakness to persist into the final quarter of the year.
Analysts said several signals could help confirm that the bear market is ending. These include STRC returning to around $100, long-term Bitcoin holders moving back into profitability, ETF flows turning consistently positive, and the Coinbase Premium Index rising back above zero.
At present, not all of those conditions are in place. ETF flows have shown a brief positive turn, but the broader trend remains fragile. Long-term holders are still facing heavy unrealized losses. The Coinbase premium remains negative. Strategy-linked securities have recovered from their lows but have not fully regained stronger levels.
Macro conditions could shape the next move
The direction of the crypto market over the next several weeks may depend heavily on broader macroeconomic conditions. Inflation data, Federal Reserve policy signals, liquidity conditions, and appetite for risk assets are all likely to influence Bitcoin and Ether.
If inflation continues to ease and markets begin to expect more supportive monetary policy, digital assets could benefit from improved liquidity. A weaker dollar and lower yields would also help risk assets more broadly. In that environment, Bitcoin could regain key technical levels more easily.
If macro conditions remain tight, the recovery may be delayed. Crypto markets are highly sensitive to liquidity, and without fresh capital inflows, short-term rebounds can fade quickly. The recent rotation into chip-focused ETFs also shows that traders are being selective rather than broadly increasing risk exposure.
Quarter-end selling pressure from funds may ease in July, which could provide some relief. However, analysts said a sustained recovery would require more than the absence of selling. It would require renewed demand, stronger inflows, and evidence that long-term holders are no longer capitulating.
Market likely needs more time
The current bear cycle appears likely to continue for another two to three months unless new external drivers emerge. Based on current data, late September to early October is increasingly viewed as a possible window for a more sustained rebound, though forecasts remain uncertain.
The market is not without potential support. Long-term holders continue to control a large share of Bitcoin supply. Some Ether whales appear to be accumulating. Spot Bitcoin ETFs have shown at least one day of renewed inflows after heavy withdrawals. Bitcoin has also moved back near important long-term moving averages after briefly falling below them.
Still, the evidence for a confirmed recovery remains incomplete. The Coinbase Premium Index is still negative. Large portions of long-term Bitcoin supply remain underwater. Ether whales are facing losses for the first time in years. ETF demand has not yet returned consistently. Strategy’s corporate actions have helped stabilize its balance sheet, but traders continue to watch whether its securities can regain stronger levels.
For now, the market remains in a fragile phase where downside risks and early recovery signals are both present. A move back above key resistance levels could improve sentiment quickly, but failure to hold current support could send Bitcoin and Ether into another leg lower.
Until liquidity improves and U.S. demand strengthens, analysts say the path of least resistance may remain uneven. The record negative streak in the Coinbase Premium Index is a clear reminder that the market’s largest assets are still searching for a durable base.
Worried by Coinbase’s negative premium and ETF outflows? Learn how to navigate bear cycles with this guide.
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