Citrini, an independent research firm, has gained prominence after a February 2025 report was followed by a sharp sell-off in U.S. software stocks, wiping hundreds of billions of dollars from technology and financial sectors.
Report linked to market sell-off
The firm’s publication, titled “The 2028 Global Intelligence Crisis,” preceded steep declines across major companies. IBM recorded its largest single-day drop since 2025, while American Express and Blackstone each fell more than 8%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average slid over 800 points during the same الفترة, underscoring the broad market impact.
Firm background and growth
Citrini was founded in 2023 by James van Geelen, a UCLA graduate with backgrounds in biology and psychology. After working as an emergency medical technician and later building and selling a healthcare business, Geelen launched the firm to focus on macroeconomic and thematic research using what he describes as “second-order thinking.”
The firm has since grown to nearly 250,000 subscribers across platforms. Its hybrid structure combines Geelen’s leadership with contributions from a network of analysts specializing in global macro trends, semiconductor manufacturing, and AI chip design.
Field research and unconventional insights
Citrini has drawn attention for field-based analysis. In April 2025, one of its analysts traveled to the Strait of Hormuz and reported regulated shipping activity under Iranian oversight, challenging prevailing assumptions of disruption in the region.
The firm has also highlighted overlooked components in emerging industries. Semiconductor analyst Jukan pointed to copper foil as a critical input in AI hardware production, triggering renewed focus on upstream supply chains rather than just headline technology firms.
Market influence and performance
Geelen’s investment vehicle, Citrindex, launched in May 2023 with an annual subscription of $1,250. The model portfolio has reported returns exceeding 200% and has frequently outperformed the S&P 500 on a monthly basis.
Citrini also secured $5.05 million in seed funding in late 2025, according to PitchBook, operating with a lean team of around ten employees.
Past trades linked to the firm’s analysis include positions tied to the 2023 Silicon Valley Bank collapse and geopolitical shifts in Venezuela, reinforcing its focus on scenario-based forecasting.
Policy signals and macro strategy
In 2024, Geelen projected a U.S. presidential outcome favoring Donald Trump. By mid-2025, he advised more than 50,000 subscribers to hedge policy risks using spreads between two- and ten-year U.S. Treasury yields, reflecting a focus on forward-looking macro indicators.
Second-order effects shaping current markets
Recent market behavior reflects the type of second-order thinking promoted by Citrini. While the Federal Reserve’s decision to hold interest rates between 3.50% and 3.75% has created immediate pressure on liquidity-sensitive assets, more subtle capital shifts are emerging.
In May 2026, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded net outflows of about $2.43 billion, the largest monthly withdrawal this year. Bitcoin has since retreated to around $64,725, highlighting defensive positioning by traders.
Pressure spreads across equities and semiconductors
Even strong earnings have not shielded major companies from valuation resets. Broadcom shares fell 7.9% despite a 48% year-over-year revenue increase, while Nvidia declined 6.2%, signaling broader concerns as macro conditions tighten.
This reflects a wider trend where supply chain dynamics, input costs, and policy expectations are outweighing headline growth figures.
Structural shifts in market infrastructure
Citrini’s early mention of the decentralized platform Trade.xyz pointed to growing changes in how assets are priced and traded. The platform now reports monthly volumes exceeding $51 billion across traditional assets such as crude oil and silver, operating continuously on blockchain infrastructure.
Its agreement with S&P Dow Jones Indices to offer S&P 500 perpetual futures highlights how alternative trading venues are gaining legitimacy and reshaping liquidity flows.
Outlook
Citrini’s research suggests that traders navigating current conditions may need to focus less on immediate price movements and more on hidden structural shifts. This includes monitoring capital flows, supply chain dependencies, and instruments that reflect future policy expectations rather than present valuations alone.
For more on how macro shocks move risk assets, explore fiscal policy’s impact on markets today.
Disclaimer: The content on this page is provided for general informational purposes only and does not represent the views or financial advice of Toobit. We make no guarantees regarding the accuracy or completeness of this information and shall not be held liable for any errors, omissions, or outcomes resulting from its use. Investing in digital assets involves risk; users should independently evaluate their financial situation and the risks involved. For further details, please consult our Terms of Service and Risk Disclosure.
