Changxin Technology’s first day on Shanghai’s STAR Market produced an extraordinary valuation gap between the company’s already record-setting close and the most aggressive analyst forecasts, placing its future earnings delivery, production expansion and ability to gain memory-chip share under immediate scrutiny.
The stock surged 465.8% in its debut session, with turnover exceeding 140 billion yuan and a closing market capitalization of 3.28 trillion yuan, according to the company’s listing-day market data. The session set several records cited in the materials, including the first technology stock to open above 3 trillion yuan in market value, the largest market capitalization on the STAR Market, and the first A-share to combine more than 100 billion yuan in daily turnover with a turnover rate above 50%.
The rally began from an issue price of 8.66 yuan, a figure also referenced in notices issued by several ETF managers before trading commenced. Those notices warned that ETF indicative optimized portfolio values, known as IOPVs, could diverge from fund net asset values during the debut because the intraday calculations used the issue price rather than the stock’s live market price.
Changxin’s valuation now rests on expectations of a sharp operational expansion in China’s memory-chip sector. The company said it expects revenue of 110 billion yuan to 120 billion yuan in the first half of 2026, representing year-on-year growth of 612.53% to 677.31%. It forecast net profit attributable to shareholders of 50 billion yuan to 57 billion yuan, up 2,244.03% to 2,544.19% from the comparable period a year earlier.
Nomura projects valuation above 7 trillion yuan
Nomura published the most bullish outlook in the materials, setting a target price of 116 yuan based on a 20-times price-to-earnings multiple. That target would imply a market value of roughly 7.76 trillion yuan and an increase of 1,239.5% from the reference level used in its analysis.
The forecast assumes a steep earnings ramp over the next three years. Nomura projected revenue of 61.8 billion yuan for 2025, rising to 290.7 billion yuan in 2026, 560.8 billion yuan in 2027 and 773.3 billion yuan in 2028. Its net-profit estimates rise from less than 1.9 billion yuan in 2025 to 130.3 billion yuan in 2026, followed by 277.2 billion yuan in 2027 and 393.1 billion yuan in 2028.
The model uses a 63% compound annual growth rate for revenue and a 74% compound annual growth rate for net profit. It would also value Changxin at about twice Micron’s multiple, according to the supplied analysis, illustrating how much of the target depends on Changxin maintaining unusually rapid growth rather than merely matching established memory producers.
Such projections leave little room for a slower ramp in output, weaker memory prices or delays in bringing new production capacity online. The stock’s first-day close already places the company near the upper portion of more conservative valuation exercises.
Northeast Securities sees a narrower range
Northeast Securities estimated a market-value range of 3.2 trillion yuan to 5.7 trillion yuan using three approaches, a range that begins close to Changxin’s 3.28 trillion yuan closing valuation.
Its market-share comparison method generated a 3.49 trillion yuan estimate. A profitability-based approach used projected 2027 net profit of 284.8 billion yuan and a price-to-earnings range of 10 to 15 times, producing a market-value range of 2.85 trillion yuan to 4.27 trillion yuan. Its unit-capacity method resulted in a 3.22 trillion yuan to 3.99 trillion yuan range.
The difference between the Northeast Securities framework and Nomura’s target is largely a question of execution and valuation tolerance. The lower range assumes a more conventional earnings multiple and gives greater weight to capacity as a practical constraint. Nomura’s case assumes Changxin can convert its rapid sales gains into a sustained, high-margin earnings trajectory at a valuation premium to major international peers.
Market share gains face capacity constraints
Melvin, an analyst at Milk Road AI, estimated that Changxin’s global DRAM market share rose from less than 4% to roughly 7.7% to 8% in under a year. Melvin also estimated that the company generated first-quarter revenue of 50.8 billion yuan, up 719% from a year earlier.
DRAM, or dynamic random-access memory, is a core memory component used in computers, smartphones, data centers and AI servers. Growth in AI-related infrastructure demand has tightened supply across parts of the memory market and improved pricing for producers able to provide high-volume output.
Yet Changxin remains materially smaller than the leading South Korean manufacturers in wafer capacity, based on Melvin’s estimates. The company’s monthly wafer capacity was placed at about 290,000 to 320,000 wafers, compared with roughly 630,000 for Samsung and 500,000 for SK hynix.
The same analysis cited U.S. restrictions on advanced lithography equipment as a limit on the speed at which Chinese manufacturers can expand. Capacity additions in memory require more than factory space: they depend on access to specialized tools, process yields, engineering expertise and a reliable supply chain for materials. That makes a rapid increase in market share difficult to translate automatically into a durable challenge to the largest incumbents.
Counterpoint Research data included in the materials put Changxin at about 8% of global memory-chip sales earlier in 2026, compared with 38% for Samsung and 29% for SK hynix. The figures indicate that Changxin has become a meaningful competitor while remaining well behind the two market leaders in global sales.
Trading data shows divided positioning
HyperInsight data on labeled wallets showed mixed directional positioning before the listing. Wallets tagged to the United States held $1.6 million in long positions and $345,000 in short positions, producing net long exposure of about $1.255 million. Hong Kong-tagged wallets held $1.3 million in longs and $431,000 in shorts, while mainland China-tagged wallets showed net long exposure of about $67,000.
The largest bearish bias in the sample came from Korea-tagged wallets, which held about $760,000 in short positions, around 38 times their reported long exposure. Taiwan-tagged wallets were also net short, with net short exposure of approximately $329,000.
These positions are small compared with the scale of Changxin’s equity-market turnover and cannot establish broader regional sentiment. They do show that some traders were positioned against an exceptionally strong opening, potentially reflecting concerns over the pace of the valuation increase, the company’s limited free float or the competitive pressure facing established memory producers. HyperInsight placed Changxin’s free float at 6.63%, a level that can amplify price swings when trading demand is concentrated.
Bloomberg Billionaires Index data showed that founder Zhu Yiming’s family wealth climbed nearly 300% after the listing to $13.9 billion. The index data also said Zhu was preparing to allocate 40% of that amount for employee bonuses.
Changxin’s debut has quickly shifted attention from the mechanics of a record IPO-day rally to whether its reported revenue momentum can justify a valuation measured in trillions of yuan. The company’s first-half forecast offers a near-term test, while its ability to expand DRAM capacity under equipment constraints will shape whether the most ambitious forecasts remain plausible.
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