Bitcoin’s largest holders have sharply slowed their accumulation, while long-term balances continue to climb largely due to low activity rather than fresh demand, according to new on-chain data from analytics firm CryptoQuant.
The shift leaves the market more vulnerable to further price weakness as major buyers step back and more coins move onto exchanges.
Large holders step back from accumulation
CryptoQuant’s head of research, Moreno, said the current market structure resembles previous bear phases, particularly conditions seen before the March 2022 downturn.
- Wallets holding 1,000–10,000 bitcoin, known as whales, are cutting their balances at the fastest annual pace of 2026 so far.
- This rate of decline was last seen during the 2022 market slump.
Wallets holding 100–1,000 bitcoin, often called dolphins, are still adding to their holdings, but at a much slower rate than before:
- Dolphin balances peaked in October 2025, when their annual growth rate reached 0.97 million bitcoin.
- Since then, the pace has weakened steadily, and monthly growth in both whale and dolphin holdings is now close to zero.
Moreno noted that whales and dolphins together provide a large share of structural demand for bitcoin. When both groups stop expanding their balances at the same time, it has historically preceded softer market performance.
From accumulation to limited distribution
Data since late 2025 show a clear turning point:
- Whale holdings have been effectively flat since February 2026.
- Dolphin holdings have been in consistent monthly decline since September 2025.
CryptoQuant interprets this as a shift from active accumulation to what Moreno calls “limited distribution” — large holders are no longer building positions aggressively and may be selectively selling into the market.
This loss of strong, sustained buying from the largest wallets removes a key support that previously helped underpin bitcoin’s rally.
Record long-term holdings driven by inactivity, not new demand
At the same time, long-term holder supply has risen to an all-time high of about 15.8 million bitcoin. On the surface, that suggests confidence, but the underlying data point to a more passive explanation.
- Short-term holder supply has fallen from 6.4 million bitcoin in December 2025 to around 4.2 million, a drop of more than 2.1 million coins.
- Roughly 900,000 of those coins were not newly purchased. Instead, they simply aged beyond 155 days in a major exchange’s reserves and were reclassified from short-term to long-term holdings.
This accounting shift inflated the long-term holder metrics without reflecting a true wave of new buying. Moreno said the rise in long-term supply is “largely a consequence of low trading volumes,” with coins sitting dormant rather than being actively accumulated.
Exchange inflows point to potential selling pressure
Recent flows to trading platforms reinforce the cautious picture.
Over the past week, major exchanges recorded a net inflow of around 12,500 bitcoin. It was the third straight week in which more coins moved onto exchanges than off them — a pattern often associated with traders preparing to sell or rebalance positions.
With whales no longer accumulating aggressively and exchange balances rising, the market’s buffer against downside moves appears thinner.
Derivatives and network activity show fading speculation
Other market indicators show cooling speculative interest and network use:
- Open interest in bitcoin futures has dropped about 15% since late April 2026, falling to roughly $28 billion. That suggests fewer leveraged bets on price direction and declining speculative appetite.
- Average on-chain transaction fees have slid to about $4.50, down sharply from around $35 at the market’s October 2025 peak. Lower fees typically reflect reduced demand for block space and lighter transactional activity.
These trends align with a market that is transitioning from a high-activity, speculative phase to a quieter, lower-volume environment.
Valuation metrics point to cooling profitability
Valuation gauges also indicate that the market’s excess heat has subsided:
- The Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) Z-Score, a widely watched measure of how stretched valuations are versus historical cost basis, has dropped to 1.8 from a peak of 3.5 in late 2025.
- The lower reading signals a substantial reduction in unrealized profits for the average holder and a less extreme valuation backdrop.
While this cooling can reduce the risk of a severe blow-off top, it also underscores how much momentum has faded since last year’s highs.
Price well below peak, with risk of fragile support
Bitcoin has retreated significantly from its October 2025 record above $126,000 and now trades near $73,400.
Moreno said the combination of:
- stalled accumulation by whales and dolphins,
- exchange inflows,
- weaker futures positioning,
- reduced network activity, and
- a moderating MVRV Z-Score
creates a backdrop where price support “may be fragile” until clear new demand emerges.
In the near term, CryptoQuant’s data suggest greater odds of sideways consolidation or further declines rather than a swift return to strong upward momentum. Market participants, Moreno added, will likely need to see a renewed pickup in large-holder accumulation and on-chain activity before a sustained bullish phase can reassert itself.
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