Bitcoin hovered near $65,680 as traders prepared for a Federal Reserve policy decision on July 29 and the release of June Personal Consumption Expenditures inflation data later that week, placing the market’s attention on whether easing energy prices can offset a still-elevated inflation backdrop.
The immediate macro picture changed early Monday after US WTI crude oil fell as low as $83 a barrel, following an 8% decline as the United States and Iran paused strikes. Oil had previously approached $95, and the rapid retreat could ease near-term pressure on fuel-linked inflation measures. The effect on the Federal Reserve’s broader policy outlook will depend on whether lower energy costs are sustained and whether core price pressures also cool.
May PCE inflation was 4.1% year over year, a three-year high, while the International Monetary Economics Network projected the June reading at 3.7%. The PCE index is the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, making Thursday’s release a more immediate catalyst for rate expectations than Bitcoin-specific developments.
Treasury yields have already reflected concern that monetary policy may remain restrictive. The US two-year Treasury yield rose to 4.3% last week, while the 30-year yield again tested an area near 5% that has repeatedly acted as resistance since late 2023. Rising yields raise the return available on government debt and can reduce demand for assets whose valuations rely heavily on future growth or liquidity conditions.
Bitcoin’s stock-market link has weakened
Bitcoin’s relationship with US equities has loosened markedly, according to TradingView data. The 20-week correlation between BTC/USD and the S&P 500 was near zero, its lowest level since March. Its correlation with the Nasdaq Composite stood at 0.11, a reading last seen in mid-February.
Correlation measures how closely two assets move together. A figure close to one suggests they tend to rise and fall in tandem, while a figure around zero indicates little consistent relationship. Bitcoin’s lower correlation means a recovery or decline in large US technology stocks may offer less guidance than usual for the cryptocurrency’s next move.
That separation arrives after a difficult week for major technology shares. The so-called Magnificent 7 group fell 5.3% in aggregate through Friday, following declines in Alphabet and Tesla earlier in the week. Earnings results were otherwise resilient: 86% of reporting S&P 500 companies beat earnings-per-share estimates and 80% exceeded revenue expectations, according to the figures cited in the market update.
Mosaic Asset Company said the S&P 500 had lost support at its 50-day moving average and identified the 200-day moving average near 7,000 as a possible next test, roughly 5% below then-current levels. If that technical level attracts buyers, it could help steady risk sentiment. Bitcoin’s weakened correlation, though, suggests traders should be cautious about treating an equity rebound as an automatic catalyst for crypto.
A long-term Bitcoin level is back in focus
Bitcoin was also pressing against its 50-month exponential moving average, a long-term technical indicator that had previously acted as resistance. An exponential moving average gives greater weight to recent prices than a simple moving average, while a 50-month measure is watched as a broad gauge of the market’s long-term trend.
The level has become a focal point because repeated failures around long-term resistance can encourage short-term traders to lock in gains or reduce exposure. A sustained move above it would change the technical picture more convincingly than a brief intraday push, especially with macroeconomic data and rate decisions due within days.
The setup leaves Bitcoin exposed to two competing forces. Softer oil prices and a lower-than-expected PCE reading could reduce concern that inflation is accelerating again, potentially easing pressure from Treasury yields. A stronger inflation print would reinforce the Fed’s 2% target gap and could keep rates elevated for longer, limiting appetite for volatile assets.
On-chain flows point to fewer coins reaching major venues
On-chain data offers a less uniformly negative picture than price action alone. CryptoQuant reported that whale inflows to major trading venues had fallen by as much as 44% since June 12, while retail inflows declined 22%. The data platform placed the difference between retail and whale inflows at $3.9 billion.
Transfers to exchanges or other large trading venues are often watched as a possible indicator of prospective selling, because coins must generally be moved to a venue before they can be sold there. Lower inflows do not establish that holders are accumulating or that prices are about to rise, but they can indicate that fewer coins are immediately positioned for sale.
CryptoQuant also recorded single-day withdrawals exceeding 9,000 BTC last week. Large withdrawals can reflect transfers to self-custody, institutional custody arrangements, internal wallet management, or other operational activity. In combination with lower whale inflows, the figures suggest that visible venue-side supply has eased even as Bitcoin struggles with a major chart level.
The next directional move may therefore depend less on equity-market headlines than on the PCE data, Treasury yields and Bitcoin’s ability to hold above long-term technical support. With the stock correlation near zero and large-holder deposits declining, the market is entering the Fed decision with its own supply-and-demand signals competing against a still-demanding macro backdrop.
Want deeper macro insight into BTC’s reaction to Fed moves? Explore our detailed outlook in this Federal Reserve–Bitcoin volatility guide.
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