Bitcoin stayed under pressure this week, trading below $63,000 after a short-lived rally was overtaken by renewed geopolitical stress between the United States and Iran, widening losses across risk assets and weakening confidence in a sustained crypto market rebound.
The world’s largest cryptocurrency had briefly advanced 9.4% earlier in the week, but most of that move faded as tensions in the Middle East escalated and broader markets turned defensive. Bitcoin traded in a range of roughly $58,300 to $64,400 over the past week, leaving it below several key onchain valuation levels that market researchers use to assess whether the asset is trading in deep-value territory.
Data from Glassnode showed Bitcoin has now remained below both its True Market Mean, near $76,600, and its Short-Term Holder Cost Basis, around $72,200, for five consecutive months. That prolonged gap has placed the market in one of the deepest valuation phases in Bitcoin’s history, according to the research firm.
The weak price action has been driven not only by global risk aversion, but also by persistent selling from long-term holders. Glassnode reported that long-term holders realized about $280 million in daily losses, the largest such figure since December 2022. This group now accounts for 43% of total realized value onchain, up sharply from 15% in early February.
The increase suggests that coins acquired during the previous market peak are continuing to move at a loss after months of drawdowns. Each attempt by Bitcoin to recover has been met by fresh supply from older holders, limiting upward momentum and slowing a broader stabilization.
Bitcoin’s inability to reclaim the low-$70,000 region has kept traders focused on whether the market is forming a durable bottom or simply pausing within a longer downtrend. For now, the answer remains uncertain.
Long-term holders remain the key source of pressure
Glassnode’s latest onchain readings show that long-term holders remain the dominant sellers in the market. These holders typically become less active during stable or rising markets, but when they begin realizing losses at scale, it often signals a stressful phase in the cycle.
The firm’s Entity-Adjusted Long-Term Holder Realized Loss, measured on a 30-day average, has not yet cooled meaningfully from recent highs. In prior downturns, a sustained decline in this metric has often appeared before broader market stabilization. That has not happened yet.
This matters because long-term holder behavior can shape the supply backdrop. When older coins come back onto the market, they can absorb new demand and keep rallies shallow. In Bitcoin’s current case, supply from this group has repeatedly appeared near resistance levels, especially whenever the asset moves back toward the mid-$60,000s.
The pressure has kept Bitcoin below its Short-Term Holder Cost Basis of about $72,200. This level represents the average acquisition price of more recent buyers and is widely watched because it can divide bullish and bearish market conditions. When Bitcoin trades below that threshold for an extended period, newer market participants tend to be underwater, which can increase the chance of selling into rebounds.
Bitcoin is also below the True Market Mean near $76,600, another broad valuation level used to assess where the asset stands relative to aggregate market cost. Remaining below both metrics for five months signals a prolonged stress period rather than a brief correction.
The current price is also below the daily exponential moving average near $65,738, confirming a persistent medium-term downtrend. A recovery above that moving average would be an early sign of improvement, but traders are likely to look for stronger confirmation through a move back above the mid-$60,000s, followed by a push toward $70,000.
ETF demand remains uneven
Institutional activity through spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds continued to contract, though the pace of weakness has moderated from earlier in the quarter.
Spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $84.86 million in net outflows on July 8, while Ethereum ETFs brought in $70.48 million on the same day, marking five consecutive sessions of positive flows for ether-linked products. The contrast shows that demand is not disappearing from crypto-linked funds entirely, but Bitcoin-specific allocation remains uneven.
Glassnode data showed the 30-day average of spot Bitcoin ETF flows has been in a net outflow regime since mid-May. The outflow rate reached roughly $193 million per day in early June before easing to about $89 million per day. That moderation suggests selling pressure from ETF products has slowed, but flows have not yet returned to a steady accumulation pattern.
Trading activity has also weakened significantly. Overall volumes have ranged between $650 million and $950 million, almost 80% below the prior $4.4 billion peak recorded in October. Lower volume can make price moves less reliable because the market may be more vulnerable to short bursts of buying or selling.
Short-term ETF flows have occasionally improved. According to market tracking data cited by QCP Capital, Bitcoin ETF flows flipped positive by $223.5 million on July 2 and $265.7 million on July 6. However, the reversal into outflows two days later showed that demand remains tactical rather than durable.
That pattern has become a major concern for traders. ETF demand was one of the strongest drivers of Bitcoin’s earlier upward cycle, and without consistent inflows, the market has fewer sources of steady spot buying. A return to positive flow momentum would likely be viewed as one of the clearest signs that confidence is rebuilding.
Ethereum ETFs, meanwhile, have shown stronger short-term flow behavior. The five-session inflow streak suggests that some traders are rotating exposure within digital assets rather than leaving the sector entirely. Still, Bitcoin remains the primary benchmark for broad crypto risk appetite, and its ETF trend continues to carry more weight for the overall market.
Derivatives show caution despite bullish positioning
The derivatives market is sending mixed signals. On one hand, positioning has tilted cautiously long. On the other, traders are still paying elevated premiums for downside protection, suggesting they remain wary of another leg lower.
The options open-interest put/call ratio dropped to 0.56, its lowest level this year. A lower put/call ratio usually indicates that fewer traders are holding bearish contracts relative to bullish ones, or that demand for upside exposure has increased.
However, the 25-delta skew spiked to 24% in late June. This means traders were still willing to pay more for downside protection than for upside exposure, a sign that fear remains present even as some positioning becomes more constructive.
Bitcoin is currently trading around 6% below its aggregate maximum pain level of $66,000. The discount widened this week as the price retreated, but it remains smaller than the stress levels seen during February’s declines.
The options market therefore points to a cautious form of optimism rather than a clear bullish turn. Traders appear willing to position for a rebound, but they are not abandoning hedges. That makes sense in a market where onchain data is still weak, ETF demand remains inconsistent and global macro conditions have become more unstable.
Geopolitical stress hits risk assets
The renewed escalation between the United States and Iran added a major external shock to an already fragile market.
Crude oil prices rose 7.9% over the past week following reports that a U.S.–Iran memorandum of understanding had lapsed. Tensions intensified after U.S. forces launched strikes on nearly 90 targets in response to Iranian attacks on vessels in the Strait of Hormuz. Iranian forces then retaliated with strikes on sites in Bahrain and Kuwait.
The escalation quickly affected global markets. Bitcoin, which had been up more than 9% earlier in the week, retraced to a gain of about 5% as traders reduced exposure to riskier assets. U.S. equity benchmarks, including the S&P 500, and European indexes such as the Euro Stoxx moved lower as sentiment weakened.
The rise in crude oil added another layer of concern because higher energy prices can complicate the inflation outlook. If oil remains elevated, central banks may face greater pressure to keep monetary policy tight, even as growth data softens.
The Cboe Volatility Index rose as traders prepared for more instability. A higher volatility reading often weighs on assets further out on the risk curve, including cryptocurrencies. Bitcoin has at times been treated as a hedge against financial instability, but in periods of sudden geopolitical escalation, it often trades more like a high-beta risk asset.
That dynamic appeared again this week. Rather than benefiting from uncertainty, Bitcoin fell alongside equities as traders moved toward cash, short-term government debt and other defensive positions.
Weak jobs data adds to uncertainty
The geopolitical shock came as U.S. economic data also disappointed.
Nonfarm payrolls rose by only 57,000 in June, far below expectations for 110,000. The weaker-than-expected labor data raised concerns about the strength of the U.S. economy, but it did not produce a simple bullish reaction for Bitcoin because inflation pressures remain unresolved.
M2 money supply climbed to a record $23.05 trillion in May, while wage growth held at 3.5%. Strong wage growth can keep services inflation sticky, and the record money supply has added to debate about whether financial conditions remain too loose.
The next major macro catalyst is the U.S. Consumer Price Index release on July 14. Traders are watching the report closely because it could influence expectations for the Federal Reserve’s next policy move. A hotter-than-expected reading could reinforce the case for tighter policy, while a softer print may ease some of the pressure on risk assets.
Market strategist Rodda noted that futures pricing now implies an 87% probability of a Federal Reserve rate increase this year after Treasury yields rose sharply across the short end of the curve. Higher short-term yields tend to weigh on speculative assets because they increase the appeal of lower-risk returns and tighten financial conditions.
The country’s Strategic Petroleum Reserve also fell to its lowest level since 1983, according to QCP. That decline matters in the current environment because energy security has become a market concern again as Middle East tensions threaten oil supply routes.
Key Bitcoin levels come into focus
From a technical perspective, Bitcoin’s rebound from the low-$60,000s remains an important short-term support area. Analyst Hathorn identified that zone as critical for maintaining any recovery attempt, with the mid-$60,000s acting as the next resistance area and $70,000 marking the prior swing high.
A sustained move above the mid-$60,000s would help repair short-term momentum, but traders are unlikely to view the recovery as convincing unless Bitcoin approaches and then reclaims the $70,000 level. Beyond that, the Short-Term Holder Cost Basis near $72,200 and the True Market Mean near $76,600 would become the next major tests.
Failure to hold the low-$60,000s could weaken the recovery structure and bring the recent range lows near $58,300 back into focus. If that level breaks, selling from underwater holders could intensify.
For now, Bitcoin is trapped between signs of early stabilization and evidence that the market remains vulnerable. ETF outflows have slowed from their worst levels, derivatives positioning is not as defensive as before, and some onchain measures suggest the market may be closer to a bottoming phase. But long-term holder losses remain high, and external shocks are still driving sharp reversals.
Bottoming signals are not yet confirmed
Glassnode’s report concluded that early conditions for a bottoming process are beginning to appear across onchain metrics, institutional flows and derivatives positioning. However, the firm also said confirmation would require several improvements: easing long-term holder losses, more stable ETF demand and a sustained rebound toward the True Market Mean.
That leaves Bitcoin in a fragile position. The market has shown it can attract buyers near the low-$60,000s, but it has not yet shown it can absorb supply from long-term holders while also overcoming macro and geopolitical pressure.
The breakdown of the fragile U.S.–Iran ceasefire has intensified that challenge. With oil prices rising, volatility climbing and U.S. rate expectations shifting, traders have fewer reasons to chase risk aggressively before the next inflation report.
Bitcoin’s path in the coming days may depend on whether the asset can defend support near the low-$60,000s while ETF flows stabilize and long-term holder selling slows. Until then, rebounds may remain vulnerable to fresh supply and sudden shifts in global risk sentiment.
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