Bitcoin hovered around $64,200, pressured by continued outflows from spot ETFs and rising expectations of tighter U.S. monetary policy. The cryptocurrency has recorded six straight weeks of net ETF withdrawals, totaling roughly $6 billion over the past month, signaling cautious positioning among larger market participants.
Fed outlook strengthens dollar, dampens risk appetite
Sentiment weakened after Federal Reserve Chair Warsh struck a hawkish tone at his first policy meeting. Derivatives markets now price in roughly a 36%–38% chance of a rate hike in July, with at least one 25-basis-point increase expected before year-end.
The shift has supported the U.S. dollar, with the dollar index holding near 100.6–100.9, close to its strongest level in over a year. A stronger dollar typically weighs on non-yielding assets like Bitcoin, limiting upside momentum.
Iran deal briefly lifts sentiment, but impact fades
A recent U.S.-Iran peace agreement helped ease global tensions and pushed oil prices to three-month lows after months of disruption in the Strait of Hormuz. Bitcoin initially rallied to about $66,230 on the news, but gains quickly faded as focus returned to monetary policy and inflation risks.
Consumer price data showing a 4.2% annual increase—still above the Fed’s 2% target—has reinforced expectations of prolonged policy tightening, offsetting any support from improving geopolitical conditions.
ETF flows signal hesitation among large players
ETF data continues to reflect steady selling pressure, although the pace of withdrawals has slowed compared with early June. Net inflows have yet to return, pointing to reduced conviction after strong accumulation earlier this year.
Derivatives data highlights fragile market structure
Options markets show declining implied volatility, with one-week levels falling from 60% to near 36%. At the same time, realized volatility has climbed above 42%, exceeding implied levels and indicating sharper-than-expected price swings.
A concentration of negative gamma around $62,000—estimated at roughly $1.8 billion in short exposure—suggests the potential for accelerated downside moves. In such conditions, hedging activity can amplify declines if prices fall toward that level.
Key levels and outlook
Bitcoin closed the previous week below $64,000, reflecting limited conviction in the current range. Near-term models point to a trading band between $60,000 and $67,000 as markets weigh easing ETF outflows against persistent policy uncertainty.
Technical indicators highlight $62,000 as a key support zone. A break below this level could open the door to a faster move toward $60,000 if selling pressure intensifies.
Worried about ETF outflows and Fed hikes? Learn how interest rates shape Bitcoin’s price action before planning your next move.
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