Bitcoin held just above $64,000 as Wall Street opened Thursday, extending a narrow trading range that has persisted since early June despite fresh signals of rising US service-sector costs, weakening employment growth and geopolitical uncertainty around the Strait of Hormuz.
The largest cryptocurrency remained below $65,000 and was down roughly 0.5% on the day, while early US equity trading was broadly flat. The restrained move stood apart from recent strength in traditional risk markets: the S&P 500 had reached new all-time highs and gold traded at a six-week peak, yet Bitcoin showed little response to either development.
Onchain analytics firm Glassnode characterized the market as “boredom rather than capitulation,” describing a local range that has contained Bitcoin since the beginning of June. Its assessment suggests holders are not selling aggressively enough to create a broad washout, but demand has also not expanded enough to lift price decisively through nearby resistance.
Strait of Hormuz remarks leave markets calm
Markets also absorbed new comments on shipping through the Strait of Hormuz without a major move in crude oil, stocks or Bitcoin.
Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Gharibabadi said an understanding involving Iran and Oman “does not, in itself, mean that the Strait of Hormuz will reopen,” according to remarks carried by the Islamic Republic News Agency and cited by CNN. The statement left open questions about the practical conditions for a full resumption of international shipping through the waterway.
US West Texas Intermediate crude traded near $76 per barrel, little changed after reaching a three-week low of $74.30 on the previous day. Oil’s muted response indicated that traders were waiting for clearer evidence that shipping could normalize, particularly without direct US involvement.
Bitcoin has often reacted sharply when energy-market disruptions feed concerns about inflation, interest rates or a wider risk-off move. Thursday’s calm trading instead showed that neither the diplomatic reports nor the immediate oil-price action had changed the market’s view of near-term financial conditions.
The lack of a decisive response also reflects the unusually compressed character of Bitcoin’s recent price action. Large macro headlines have arrived without generating sustained momentum in either direction, leaving the market more focused on whether buyers or sellers can produce a meaningful increase in spot and derivatives volume.
US services data revives inflation concerns
The US services-sector data offered a more direct reminder of the challenge facing monetary policymakers. The Institute for Supply Management said its services PMI increased by 0.1 point to 54.1 in July, indicating continued expansion in the sector.
Beneath the headline figure, the composition of the report was less reassuring. ISM’s employment index fell 3.6 points to 47.4, its lowest level since March, while the prices-paid index rose 2.6 points to 70.3, close to the highest reading since October 2022.
A reading above 50 in the prices-paid measure signals that more businesses are reporting higher input costs. The employment reading below 50, meanwhile, indicates contraction in the survey’s employment component. Together, those figures have renewed discussion of stagflation risk: an environment where price pressures remain elevated while labor-market conditions weaken.
The Kobeissi Letter noted that ISM services prices paid had risen 16.9 points since March 2024 and had been trending higher for more than two years. Its comparison of rising service costs and weakening employment added to concerns that policymakers could face a less favorable trade-off between containing inflation and supporting economic activity.
For Bitcoin, that mix can cut in competing directions. Persistent inflation may reinforce arguments for scarce assets, but reduced expectations for easier monetary policy can weigh on speculative demand and liquidity-sensitive markets. The immediate price response suggested that traders were unwilling to assign either outcome a clear advantage.
Range holds as equities advance
Glassnode said Bitcoin had lagged global risk appetite and described the market as “compressed” and “under-owned,” with bottom conditions “assembling but incomplete.” Its analysis pointed to Bitcoin’s divergence from the S&P 500 during a period when equities continued to set records.
That divergence places greater emphasis on market structure than on daily headlines. A range-bound Bitcoin market can absorb encouraging equity performance without rising if buyers remain cautious or if profit-taking repeatedly appears near resistance. Equally, a market that is not experiencing broad capitulation may struggle to produce a deep selloff without a stronger negative catalyst.
Bitfinex Research, whose analysis was not considered here, had separately argued that Bitcoin had not entered a genuine breakdown. The available price action supports the narrower observation that Bitcoin has so far remained above the lower boundaries of its recent range, rather than establishing a sustained sequence of lower lows.
A convincing change in direction would likely require more than a brief move above or below a round-number level. Sustained spot demand, heavier trading activity and follow-through across successive sessions would offer stronger evidence that the long consolidation is ending.
Policy signals remain the next major test
The next major macroeconomic tests will come from US inflation data and policy communication, including the August inflation report and the Federal Reserve’s Jackson Hole symposium. Those events could reshape expectations for interest rates, which remain central to pricing across equities, bonds, commodities and cryptocurrency.
Until then, Bitcoin’s inability to follow record-high US stocks has left the market in a holding pattern rather than a confirmed risk-on advance. The $65,000 area remains an immediate obstacle, while the resilience of the range since June suggests sellers have not yet secured control either.
That balance leaves Bitcoin unusually dependent on a catalyst capable of changing both macro expectations and market participation. Thursday’s combination of geopolitical uncertainty, steady oil prices and mixed US services data did not provide one.
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