Bitcoin’s momentum indicators have dropped to historic lows, even as on-chain data shows sustained accumulation from smaller and mid-sized traders, highlighting a split market dynamic amid ongoing price pressure.
record-low rsi meets steady accumulation
Bitcoin’s daily and two-week relative strength index (RSI) readings have reached their lowest levels on record, a signal often associated with exhausted selling pressure. Historically, such conditions can precede a pause in declines or a short-term rebound.
At the same time, wallet data points to broad accumulation. Addresses holding between 1,000 and 10,000 BTC added 53,042 BTC over the past 60 days. Smaller groups followed suit, with wallets holding 100–1,000 BTC accumulating 12,233 BTC and those with 10–100 BTC adding 1,283 BTC.
Glassnode’s accumulation trend score reinforces this trend, showing strong buying activity among the smallest wallets under 0.1 BTC with a score of 0.78. Wallets holding 10–100 BTC also recorded solid accumulation with a score of 0.71.
largest holders continue to sell
While smaller and mid-sized traders are buying, the largest entities are moving in the opposite direction. Wallets holding more than 10,000 BTC reduced their balances by 39,840 BTC over the same period.
This divergence highlights a redistribution phase, where supply from major holders is being absorbed by a wider base of market participants.
price action remains under pressure
Bitcoin recently rebounded from a low near $59,100 to around $63,000, attempting to stabilize after a sharp sell-off. Despite this recovery, the asset remains down more than 14% over the past week, reflecting continued selling pressure.
The 14-day RSI currently stands at 26.43, well below the 30 level commonly viewed as oversold. While this suggests the decline may have been too aggressive, it does not confirm that a lasting bottom has formed.
Adding to the pressure, spot bitcoin products have recorded approximately $4.4 billion in outflows over a 13-day stretch, introducing significant supply into the market.
key levels and technical zones in focus
Analysts are closely watching a fair value gap identified between $56,800 and $44,600, a range with limited historical trading activity. Similar zones in past cycles have served as retracement areas before markets established long-term bottoms.
On-chain models based on the cumulative value days destroyed-to-price ratio (CVDD) place a potential floor near $46,000, with a broader base forming between roughly $52,000 and $59,000. The metric currently sits around 0.73 and has historically approached 1.0 near deeper market lows.
Another key level is the 200-week moving average near $62,800. Holding above this long-term indicator would signal strength, while a sustained break below could open the door to further downside.
market outlook remains uncertain
The current landscape reflects a clear tug-of-war. Oversold technical indicators and steady accumulation from smaller traders suggest underlying demand, while continued selling from large holders and fund outflows weigh on price.
Taken together, the data points to continued volatility, with the $44,000 to $60,000 range emerging as a critical zone if market weakness persists.
Amid Bitcoin volatility and shifting whale behavior, use Toobit’s real-time market data to refine your trading decisions.
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