Bitcoin traded close to $64,100 after briefly rising to $64,522 on Sunday, holding most of its gains despite ongoing global tensions and steady selling in spot markets. The cryptocurrency slipped about 0.5% later in the session, reflecting cautious momentum as traders monitored both geopolitical developments and market structure.
Geopolitical tensions coincide with price resilience
The move higher came as tensions escalated between the United States and Iran. Tehran closed the Strait of Hormuz and raised doubts about an existing peace arrangement following Israeli airstrikes in Lebanon. Iranian officials warned the ceasefire could collapse, while U.S. President Donald Trump urged Iran to halt support for regional groups and warned against further escalation.
Despite the uncertainty, bitcoin showed resilience, with some market watchers pointing to its ability to climb during periods of geopolitical instability. Talks between U.S. and Iranian officials in Switzerland remain ongoing.
Derivatives activity drives the rally
Market data indicates that bitcoin’s upward move is being driven largely by leveraged positions rather than spot demand. Activity in perpetual futures contracts has dominated, suggesting traders are betting on short-term gains instead of accumulating the asset directly.
In the past 24 hours, bitcoin futures volume significantly exceeded spot trading volume, highlighting the imbalance. This dynamic has raised concerns about the durability of the rally, as leveraged positions can unwind quickly if momentum shifts.
At the same time, continued selling pressure in spot markets has capped stronger upside, keeping bitcoin below key resistance levels in recent weeks.
Outflows and selling pressure weigh on sentiment
Sustained outflows from U.S.-listed spot bitcoin ETFs have added to the cautious tone. Over the past month, billions of dollars have exited these products, marking the largest withdrawal period since their launch. This steady reduction in exposure has acted as a drag on price growth.
Short-term outlook remains mixed
Market observers remain divided on bitcoin’s next move.
- Some expect a near-term push toward $66,000 if leveraged buying continues.
- Others point to a recent pattern where Mondays have marked short-term peaks followed by pullbacks.
- Liquidation data shows significant pressure points on both sides, with large short positions at risk above $68,600 and long positions vulnerable below $62,100.
With high leverage in the system and continued spot selling, bitcoin’s near-term direction may depend on whether momentum can be sustained or if a sharp reversal is triggered by profit-taking or geopolitical developments.
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