Bitcoin climbed to about $64,000 this week, rebounding from near $58,000, as on-chain data pointed to renewed activity from large U.S.-based accounts and a modest improvement in demand conditions after weeks of weakness. Ethereum also recovered, rising from roughly $1,500 to around $1,750, adding to signs that risk appetite in the digital asset market has improved in the short term.
The latest move was supported by a rise in the Coinbase Premium, a closely watched measure that compares the price of Bitcoin on Coinbase with the price on Binance. According to data from CryptoQuant, the premium moved above its 14-day moving average, suggesting that buying pressure from U.S. market participants strengthened compared with recent sessions.
The signal remains incomplete, however. The premium is still below zero, currently around minus 0.08, meaning Bitcoin continues to trade at a slight discount on Coinbase relative to Binance. That keeps the market in a cautious position: demand has improved from recent lows, but the data has not yet confirmed a broader change in trend.
CryptoQuant analyst Kesmeci said the short-term recovery reflected a return of demand from major U.S. accounts after a period of weaker activity. The analyst noted that both Bitcoin and Ethereum premium metrics moved back above their 14-day moving averages, a development that can indicate improving momentum. But Kesmeci also said a move above zero would be needed to show a stronger and more durable shift in market direction.
The recovery comes as traders continue to weigh conflicting signals across spot markets, exchange-traded funds and on-chain supply data. Bitcoin’s gain from $58,000 to $64,000 shows that buyers have stepped in at lower levels, but continued withdrawals from U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs and the still-negative premium suggest the market has not fully moved into a clear accumulation phase.
U.S. demand shows signs of improvement
The Coinbase Premium is often used as a window into U.S. demand because Coinbase is widely used by American institutions and larger domestic accounts. When Bitcoin trades at a premium on Coinbase compared with other global venues, analysts often interpret it as a sign that U.S. buying pressure is stronger than global demand. When the premium is negative, it suggests the opposite, or at least that U.S. demand is not leading the market.
This week’s move above the 14-day moving average is important because it shows the premium has improved relative to its recent trend. The indicator had been weak for several weeks, reflecting softer demand and a more defensive market structure. A recovery above the short-term average suggests that some large buyers are returning after previously stepping back.
Still, the current reading near minus 0.08 shows that the market has not yet reached a point where U.S. demand is dominant. The premium last turned positive more than two months ago, according to the data cited by CryptoQuant. Until that threshold is crossed again, the improvement is more likely to be viewed as a short-term recovery rather than confirmation of a sustained uptrend.
Ethereum’s similar move adds weight to the view that the rebound is not limited to Bitcoin. The second-largest cryptocurrency rose from about $1,500 to $1,750, and its premium-related metrics also moved above their 14-day averages. That suggests demand improved across major assets rather than being concentrated in only one token.
For traders, the distinction matters. A single-asset rebound can fade quickly if broader market conditions remain weak. A recovery across Bitcoin and Ethereum may suggest stronger appetite for crypto exposure, though it still needs confirmation from stronger volume, ETF flows and sustained on-chain accumulation.
ETF flows remain uneven
While on-chain demand indicators improved, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF flows continued to send mixed signals. Data from Farside showed that spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded eight consecutive weeks of outflows totaling about $2.7 billion before small inflows appeared this week. That shift briefly raised hopes that pressure from ETF redemptions might be easing.
The improvement was not steady. Farside data showed that U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs saw outflows of $95.3 million on Thursday, marking the third straight day of withdrawals. That suggests sentiment around the funds remains fragile, even as Bitcoin’s spot price has recovered.
ETF flows have become one of the most important indicators for Bitcoin since the U.S. funds began trading. Persistent inflows can create steady demand for Bitcoin because fund issuers must hold the underlying asset. Outflows can have the opposite effect, especially when withdrawals continue over several days or weeks.
The recent pattern shows that ETF traders are not yet consistently adding exposure. Small inflows after an eight-week stretch of withdrawals may show that selling pressure is moderating, but the return to daily outflows suggests confidence remains uneven.
That matters because Bitcoin’s latest climb may need continued support from large pools of capital to hold above recent levels. Without stronger ETF inflows or a clear positive turn in the Coinbase Premium, the rally could remain vulnerable to profit-taking.
Fear and greed stays elevated
Sentiment indicators show another layer of tension in the market. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index remains in the “extreme greed” range, even as ETF flows have been volatile and the Coinbase Premium remains below zero.
An elevated greed reading often reflects strong price momentum and rising confidence among traders. It can also warn that the market may be stretched in the short term, particularly if prices rise quickly while underlying demand indicators are still mixed.
In the current market, the high sentiment reading contrasts with the caution shown in ETF withdrawals and the negative premium. That combination suggests that traders are excited by the rebound but have not yet fully committed across all market channels.
This does not mean the rally must reverse. Markets can remain in high-greed conditions for long periods during strong trends. But it does mean the recovery is more likely to be tested. Traders may watch whether Bitcoin can hold the $64,000 area, whether the Coinbase Premium can cross above zero, and whether ETF flows can return to sustained inflows.
Large wallet movement draws attention
Separate on-chain activity also attracted attention this week. Independent market researcher Dent said a single block of exactly 4,012 Bitcoin moved out of holding accounts earlier in the day. Large withdrawals from wallets linked to trading platforms are often interpreted as a possible reduction in near-term supply available for sale.
Such movements can support bullish sentiment when they occur during a price recovery, because coins leaving trading venues are sometimes viewed as being moved into custody or long-term storage. That can reduce the amount of Bitcoin immediately available for trading.
However, wallet movements are not always straightforward. A withdrawal does not automatically mean long-term accumulation. Coins can move for custody changes, internal transfers, collateral management or other operational reasons. For that reason, large transfers are best viewed as a supporting signal rather than proof of a new trend.
Even with that caution, the timing of the movement was notable because it came as Bitcoin was recovering from its recent low near $58,000. If large holders are moving coins away from active trading venues while U.S. demand indicators are improving, it may suggest that some market participants expect tighter supply conditions.
Supply ratio points to tighter market conditions
The article’s source data also pointed to a sharp fall in a broad supply ratio, which reportedly dropped from about 41 months to only six months. The measure appears to track how long available supply could meet current demand under prevailing conditions.
A decline of that size can be interpreted as a sign that ready market supply is tightening. When available supply falls quickly while demand improves, price moves can become sharper because fewer coins are available to absorb buying pressure.
Historically, sharp declines in liquid supply have often appeared during stronger market phases, especially when demand from large accounts rises at the same time. Some traders view this type of supply compression as a potential precursor to further gains.
Still, the signal should be treated carefully. Supply ratios depend heavily on methodology, wallet labeling and assumptions about what counts as available supply. A dramatic shift can reflect real changes in market behavior, but it can also be affected by large transfers, custody changes or temporary movements between wallets.
The key question is whether reduced available supply is matched by sustained demand. If demand weakens again, tighter supply alone may not be enough to support higher prices. But if ETF flows improve, the Coinbase Premium turns positive and large wallets continue moving coins away from active trading venues, the setup would look more constructive.
Miners may be easing selling pressure
Another factor being watched is miner behavior after the most recent Bitcoin halving. The halving reduced block rewards, cutting the number of new Bitcoin earned by miners. That shift can pressure mining firms because revenue drops unless Bitcoin’s price rises enough to offset the reduction.
After halvings, miners sometimes sell part of their Bitcoin reserves to cover electricity, equipment and operating costs. That type of selling can weigh on the market, especially during periods of weaker demand.
The current view among some on-chain watchers is that this pressure may be fading as July progresses. If miners have already sold a large portion of the coins needed to fund operations, the market may face less supply from that source in the coming weeks.
Lower miner selling would not guarantee higher prices, but it could remove one source of pressure. Combined with reduced liquid supply and improving U.S. demand metrics, it may help explain why Bitcoin was able to rebound quickly from the $58,000 area.
Traders remain cautious despite the rebound
Despite the stronger price action, traders are still being cautious. The rally has improved the short-term picture, but several signals remain unresolved. The Coinbase Premium is above its 14-day moving average, yet still negative. ETF flows have shown brief relief, yet withdrawals have returned. Sentiment is strong, yet the Fear & Greed Index remains elevated enough to raise concern about crowded positioning.
Risk management is therefore likely to remain central for active market participants. Some traders are watching the recent floor near $58,000 as an important support area. Others are waiting for the premium to hold positive territory for several sessions before treating the rebound as a stronger trend.
Moving-average signals are also under scrutiny. A sustained move in daily averages above longer weekly measures would provide a more convincing technical confirmation that momentum has shifted upward. Without that, the latest move may still be seen as a recovery within a broader uncertain range.
Bitcoin’s rise to $64,000 shows that buyers are willing to defend lower levels and that large U.S. activity has improved. Ethereum’s rebound reinforces the view that demand has returned across major crypto assets. But the market has not yet produced a clean confirmation of a lasting recovery.
For now, the main test is whether short-term strength can turn into sustained demand. A positive Coinbase Premium, steadier ETF inflows, continued reduction in liquid supply and lower miner selling would all support the case for further gains. If those signals fail to develop, Bitcoin’s rebound could remain vulnerable to another round of volatility.
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