Bitcoin moved back above $65,000 after a weaker-than-expected U.S. employment report sharpened expectations that the Federal Reserve may face less pressure to raise interest rates in September. The cryptocurrency traded near $65,200 on Aug. 7, up almost 2% on the day, after briefly falling below the $65,000 mark immediately following the release.
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that nonfarm payrolls declined by 23,000 in July, reversing forecasts for an 80,000-job gain. The agency also cut its estimate for June job growth to 20,000 from 57,000, adding to evidence that hiring has weakened more quickly than previously understood.
Bitcoin’s recovery tracked a wider response across macro markets. The dollar weakened after the data, while precious metals gained, reflecting a reassessment of how much further the Federal Reserve may be willing to tighten policy. Bitcoin has often traded alongside risk-sensitive assets during periods when traders expect easier financial conditions, though the relationship can shift rapidly around major economic releases.
Payroll weakness challenges the case for higher rates
July’s payroll decline was the most immediate market-moving element of the report, but the downward revision to June also changed the picture. A single weak employment print can be distorted by seasonal effects or short-term disruptions. Two weaker readings, including a revision, give policymakers less evidence that the labor market remains strong enough to absorb higher borrowing costs without a larger economic slowdown.
The unemployment rate edged down to 4.1% from 4.2%, a figure that could initially appear to contradict the drop in payrolls. The two measures come from separate Bureau of Labor Statistics surveys. Nonfarm payrolls are based on a survey of employers, while the unemployment rate comes from a household survey.
The decline in unemployment was linked to lower labor-force participation rather than a clear acceleration in hiring. When fewer people are counted as actively seeking work, the unemployment rate can fall even if employment growth remains muted. That distinction leaves the payroll figure and its revisions more relevant to the debate over whether labor-market momentum is fading.
Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh and other policymakers have remained focused on inflation, and the jobs report alone is unlikely to settle the next policy decision. Oil-price volatility and risks to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea could keep inflation concerns elevated by raising transportation and energy costs. Those pressures complicate any argument that weak hiring automatically opens the door to looser policy.
Yet the July data reduced the immediate support for another rate increase. Lower expected rates generally pull down yields on cash and government debt, changing how traders value assets with higher volatility and no income stream, including Bitcoin and ether.
$65,000 becomes a near-term Bitcoin test
Bitcoin’s move above $65,000 places the level at the center of the market’s short-term technical picture. The asset initially slipped below that threshold after the payroll release before recovering, suggesting that buyers remain active around the level even as macroeconomic uncertainty persists.
A sustained move above $65,000 could put the $66,000 area back into focus. The market has not yet established that outcome, and Bitcoin remains sensitive to incoming U.S. data, changes in Treasury yields and dollar movements. A reversal below $64,000 would weaken the immediate recovery and could bring recent support levels back into view.
The next major catalyst arrives with the U.S. consumer price index release scheduled for Aug. 12. A softer inflation reading would reinforce the reaction to the employment data by giving the Federal Reserve evidence that price pressures are easing alongside a cooler labor market. A stronger reading, particularly one driven by energy or transport costs, could restore expectations for restrictive policy and pressure risk assets.
The market response will likely depend on the details beneath the headline inflation number. Services prices, shelter costs and core inflation measures have greater influence on expectations for central-bank policy than a short-lived monthly move in volatile categories.
Ether approaches $2,000 after strong month
Ether was also attempting to reclaim the $2,000 level, a price area that has acted as resistance. The token returned 18.5% during its strongest month since August 2025, according to the figures cited in the market update, while spot ether exchange-traded funds recorded more than $350 million in inflows over the same period.
Those returns placed ether 18.3 percentage points ahead of the S&P 500 and 25 percentage points ahead of the Nasdaq-100 during the month. ETF inflows do not guarantee a sustained rally, but they provide a visible channel for demand that is separate from activity on centralized trading venues.
Bitcoin’s seasonal record was also cited as supportive, with average gains of 5.8% in the third quarter and 66.7% in the fourth quarter. Seasonal averages should be treated carefully: they combine years with sharply different monetary conditions, market structures and price cycles. This year’s path will be shaped more directly by inflation, Federal Reserve policy and the durability of demand following the payroll surprise.
Mining conditions add pressure beneath the price rebound
The price recovery comes as Bitcoin’s mining sector faces a more difficult operating environment. The monthly average network computing power was reported at 898 exahashes per second by the first week of August, down 19% over a nine-month period. The decline was described as the longest sustained reduction in Bitcoin mining history over that timeframe.
Hashrate measures the combined computational power securing the Bitcoin network. A decline can reflect miners switching off less-efficient machines when revenue fails to cover electricity, equipment and financing costs. Reported figures indicated that 22.7% of standard mining machines were operating at a daily loss.
Mining stress does not automatically point to lower Bitcoin prices. It can reduce selling from unprofitable operators after they shut down, while the network’s difficulty adjustment is designed to keep block production functioning as mining capacity changes. But extended pressure on miners can increase the chance of forced sales by companies with high operating costs or debt obligations.
For now, Bitcoin’s return above $65,000 rests largely on a macro repricing triggered by the employment report. The Aug. 12 inflation release will determine whether that repricing develops into a broader shift in rate expectations or proves to be a short-lived reaction to one weak payroll report.
Wondering if this move is temporary? Explore whether the best time to buy Bitcoin might be right now.
Disclaimer: The content on this page is provided for general informational purposes only and does not represent the views or financial advice of Toobit. We make no guarantees regarding the accuracy or completeness of this information and shall not be held liable for any errors, omissions, or outcomes resulting from its use. Investing in digital assets involves risk; users should independently evaluate their financial situation and the risks involved. For further details, please consult our Terms of Service and Risk Disclosure.
