Bitcoin’s pullback from its July rebound extended into a 12th day, taking the price to $62,268 and placing the $60,900-to-$61,500 area at the center of the next technical test, according to a technical trading log supplied with the analysis. The report treats $63,600 as the immediate recovery threshold: holding above that level could support a rebound toward $65,700 to $67,300, while another failure would leave Bitcoin exposed to the lower support zone.
The decline follows a rise from roughly $57,820 on July 1 to $66,955 on July 21. That advance, described in the report as an “a-wave,” lasted 21 days and added about 15.8%. Since peaking near $66,955, Bitcoin has retraced much of that move, reaching approximately the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level near $61,310. Fibonacci retracement levels are widely used chart markers based on the size of a previous move, though they do not guarantee that buyers will appear at a given price.
The report’s working view is that the market remains in a temporary corrective phase rather than a confirmed renewed decline. That interpretation depends heavily on Bitcoin remaining above the July 1 low near $57,820. A durable break below that level would undermine the proposed rebound structure and shift attention to a deeper correction.
Bitcoin needs to reclaim $63,600
On a four-hour chart, the report breaks the ongoing pullback into six overlapping segments and identifies the latest movement as a potential rebound phase. The structure remains inconclusive because the price has not yet maintained a move above $63,600 while preserving the $62,268 low.
A sustained recovery above $63,600 would be treated as evidence that the daily pullback may be ending. Under that scenario, the report identifies resistance first around $65,700 to $67,300, followed by a higher band between $69,500 and $71,000. Those levels correspond to areas where the earlier rally stalled or where prior price swings created potential selling pressure.
If Bitcoin cannot clear $63,600, the analysis expects traders to focus on $60,950 to $61,500. The range includes the report’s estimated 61.8% retracement point and sits above the July low. A move into that zone would not automatically establish a bottom; it would merely bring Bitcoin into an area where a stabilization attempt could emerge.
The report’s position-tracking model said Bitcoin had dropped below its “bull-bear channel,” leading it to maintain a medium-term short allocation of roughly 40%. It said that allocation would be reduced to less than 20% if the price held above $63,600 and continued higher. The model’s terminology and allocations are specific to the trading log rather than a market-wide positioning measure.
One short trade described in the report entered around $64,700 after Bitcoin stalled near $65,700 and exited near $63,032, producing a stated gain of about 2.58% using 1x leverage. The exit followed signs of price stabilization above $62,000 and alerts from the model indicating a potential local bottom.
Its risk rules called for an initial stop-loss at entry, a move to breakeven once a trade gained 1%, and progressively tighter protection as gains expanded. Such rules can limit losses in fast-moving markets, but they can also close positions during short-lived volatility.
HYPE approaches a closely watched support range
HYPE, the token analyzed alongside Bitcoin in the report, has fallen into a $50-to-$52 support band after a 27-day decline from its July high. The report characterizes the move as the final leg of an A-B-C correction, a three-part chart pattern commonly used in Elliott Wave-style analysis.
HYPE fell from $76.94 on June 16 to $58.50 by June 25, a 23.97% drop over nine days. It then rebounded 24.74% to $72.97 by July 7 before turning lower again. The current C-wave decline reached $51.11 in the supplied analysis, placing the token just above the $50-to-$52 band.
Repeated oversold readings in the report’s model have generated bottom-warning alerts around current prices. Oversold conditions generally indicate that a recent decline has been unusually sharp relative to a chosen technical indicator. They can precede a bounce, but during sustained selling they may persist for extended periods.
The report therefore frames the $50-to-$52 zone as an area to monitor for stabilization rather than a confirmed buying signal. Its proposed long setup would require evidence of price support inside that range, would cap position size below 20%, and would use a stop-loss. If the support fails, the next level identified in the analysis is near $45.
On the upside, HYPE would face resistance around $58.50 to $60, then $63.50 to $66, before the prior July peak near $72.97. The distance between current support and those resistance levels illustrates the uncertainty in attempting to trade a potential reversal before the market has established one.
Quiet trading conditions raise the risk of a sharp move
The supplied report also points to a period of reduced Bitcoin volatility, which it describes as the lowest since October 2025. Low-volatility stretches often compress price into a narrow range before a larger move, though they do not reliably indicate direction. In Bitcoin’s case, the $60,900-to-$61,500 support range and the $63,600 recovery level now form the most immediate boundaries for that potential move.
The analysis cites Bitcoin network computing power reaching 920 exahashes per second in early August 2026, alongside a reported 23% decline in mining-company revenue during the early summer. Higher hash rate reflects more computing power devoted to securing the network, while weaker miner revenue can increase financial pressure on operators with high energy, equipment, and financing costs.
The report suggests that reduced mining profitability may encourage some miners to sell Bitcoin holdings to meet operating expenses, potentially adding supply during a fragile price period. It does not quantify miner sales or establish a direct causal link between mining economics and Bitcoin’s movement toward the $62,900 area.
For now, the chart structure described in the report leaves Bitcoin between two clear tests: buyers need to defend the lower $60,900-to-$61,500 area if the pullback extends, while a sustained move above $63,600 would offer the first technical evidence that the correction is losing control.
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