Bitcoin price floor stays higher than past downturns

Bitcoin may be forming a higher floor than in past downturns, but the market has not yet reached a definitive bottom, according to new research from Galaxy Research and CryptoQuant.

Galaxy estimates the current cycle’s downside could settle between $62,000 and Bitcoin’s realized price of $53,600, suggesting losses may be more contained than in earlier bear markets. However, several indicators show the correction is still unfolding.

Weaker peak signals point to softer cycle

Galaxy’s head of research, Thorn, found that Bitcoin’s drawdowns have steadily become less severe over time, shrinking from more than 80% in early cycles to 51% in the latest downturn. Despite this moderation, the broader four-year cycle structure remains intact.

The October 2025 peak showed limited signs of speculative excess. Only two of eleven traditional top indicators were triggered, while the widely followed Pi Cycle Top signal did not activate. The market-value-to-realized-value ratio reached 2.29, well below the 2.93 to 5.91 range seen in prior peaks, indicating a less euphoric market top.

This muted peak has resulted in a higher network cost basis, now at 43.7% of Bitcoin’s all-time high compared with significantly lower levels in earlier cycles. At the same time, only four of thirteen bottom-detection indicators have been triggered, suggesting the market has not fully reset.

Timing suggests more downside ahead

Historically, Bitcoin bottoms form 12 to 13 months after a cycle peak. The current downturn is حوالي eight months old, implying further time may be needed before a floor is established.

Galaxy outlines several potential price zones. A base case places the bottom between $40,000 and $46,000, while a deeper correction could extend to $30,000–$37,000. A more resilient scenario would see support near $51,000–$54,000.

Thorn noted that if the realized cost basis declines further, these projections could shift lower. A 10% to 30% drop in that metric would move the implied floor closer to $28,000.

Onchain data signals weak demand

CryptoQuant data shows Bitcoin trading near levels historically associated with bear-market lows. At around $59,000, the asset is roughly 9% above its realized price of $53,600.

Previous cycle bottoms, including the November 2022 sell-off, occurred at or below this realized price level, aligning with Galaxy’s lower range estimates.

Demand conditions have also deteriorated sharply. CryptoQuant recorded a weekly drop of 652,000 BTC in combined futures and spot demand, the largest decline since January 2022. Its one-year demand metric has turned negative, indicating fewer traders are accumulating Bitcoin compared with a year ago.

Sentiment and flows paint mixed picture

Market signals remain conflicted. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recently posted a net outflow of $213.85 million in a single day, reflecting cooling institutional participation after earlier strong inflows.

At the same time, social sentiment has turned highly bullish, with one tracker showing 2.23 bullish comments for every bearish one — a level that has historically preceded short-term pullbacks. This optimism contrasts with the Crypto Fear & Greed Index, which remains in “Extreme Fear” territory at 23.

No clear capitulation yet

A key feature of previous cycle bottoms — large-scale capitulation — has not yet appeared. According to CryptoQuant’s Julio Moreno, realized losses over the past 30 days totaled 187,000 BTC, far below the 1.2 million BTC recorded during the FTX-driven bottom.

Without this kind of widespread panic selling, analysts suggest the market may still be searching for a durable floor, with subdued demand and incomplete bottom signals pointing to further consolidation or downside ahead.

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