Bitcoin could produce a technical signal that its recent sell-off has reached a bottom if it closes August above $63,000, according to 10x Research. Bitcoin traded at $63,140 when the firm’s Aug. 3 analysis was prepared, placing the market only narrowly above the level that founder Markus Thielen said would turn several of the firm’s cycle indicators bullish.
The threshold has taken on added weight after Bitcoin ended July below the level 10x Research uses to confirm a market bottom. A sustained monthly close near or above $63,000 would suggest that buyers have absorbed the selling pressure that pushed the cryptocurrency below its recent trading range, though it would not eliminate the risk of renewed volatility before the month ends.
Thielen’s framework puts the August monthly close ahead of shorter-term price swings. Bitcoin has repeatedly moved through major support and resistance levels during the current downturn, making a single daily recovery less persuasive than a close that holds through the full month. The $63,000 mark now serves as a practical line between a tentative rebound and a move that could support a broader recovery case.
Federal Reserve policy remains the larger variable
10x Research said its base case assumes the US Federal Reserve leaves interest rates unchanged. The firm warned that a further rise in the 10-year Treasury yield could increase the chance of a rate hike in September, adding pressure to assets whose valuations are sensitive to financing conditions and liquidity.
The report also cited the conflict involving Iran as a risk to the macroeconomic outlook. Escalation could affect energy markets, inflation expectations and bond yields, creating a less favorable backdrop for Bitcoin even if its technical indicators improve.
Bitcoin’s recent price action has been increasingly tied to these macroeconomic inputs rather than solely to the timing of its historic halving cycles. Higher Treasury yields can strengthen the appeal of government debt relative to risk assets, while a more restrictive Federal Reserve would limit expectations for easier financial conditions.
Zach Pandl, head of research at Grayscale, reached a similar conclusion in a July 22 report. Pandl wrote that Bitcoin may have reached its cyclical low earlier than the traditional four-year framework would imply. Under that historical pattern, the cycle bottom would be expected in September or October, but Pandl argued that the timing could be altered by the economic environment.
His assessment places Federal Reserve policy and broader financial conditions above calendar-based cycle models. That approach helps explain why analysts can agree that Bitcoin may be nearing a bottom while differing on whether the low has already been set.
Potential supply could test the recovery
The technical case for a bottom also faces a supply question. 10x Research estimated that miners could generate around 100,000 BTC of selling pressure as some mining companies redirect operations and capital toward artificial intelligence infrastructure.
A sale of that scale would not necessarily occur at once, and the report did not present it as a confirmed disposal program. Yet it reflects a real change in the economics facing publicly traded mining firms, several of which have explored data-center and AI-related businesses as alternatives or additions to pure Bitcoin mining.
Mining companies regularly sell a portion of their Bitcoin production to cover operating costs, debt payments and equipment purchases. A strategic shift toward AI could create additional funding needs, particularly for firms pursuing expensive computing facilities, power agreements and server hardware. Those sales would add supply during a period when Bitcoin is trying to establish support.
10x Research also identified Bitcoin treasury companies as a possible source of market supply if some businesses unwind holdings. Companies that accumulated Bitcoin as a balance-sheet asset can face different incentives from long-term individual holders, especially if their shares trade at a discount, financing costs rise or debt obligations become more difficult to manage.
Loss-held supply has historically preceded bottoms
Separate research from K33, published earlier in July, focused on the percentage of Bitcoin supply held at a loss. The brokerage said more than half of the circulating supply had moved into an unrealized loss position, a condition that occurred near major market lows in 2017, 2018 and 2022.
According to K33, Bitcoin reached a bottom between 13 and 31 days after crossing that threshold in those earlier cycles. The comparison offers a historical reference point rather than a forecast: market structure, institutional participation and macroeconomic conditions differ substantially from prior downturns. Yet widespread unrealized losses can reduce the number of holders willing to sell at current prices, particularly if the market has already experienced an extended decline.
Cory Klippsten, chief executive of Swan Bitcoin, cited another accumulation measure in a June interview: long-term holders controlled a record 14.7 million BTC. Klippsten linked that balance to the view that Bitcoin was approaching a bottom, as coins held for extended periods are generally less likely to enter immediate circulation.
Long-term-holder balances can help constrain readily available supply, but they do not prevent price declines. Bitcoin’s liquid market price is set by marginal buyers and sellers, meaning concentrated selling from miners, treasury companies or derivatives traders can still move the market sharply even when a large share of supply remains dormant.
August close will test competing market views
The coming weeks will put several competing signals into focus. Historical loss-held supply metrics and elevated long-term holdings point to conditions that have often appeared near prior lows. The $63,000 monthly-close level identified by 10x Research would add a technical confirmation to that argument.
Against it stand the prospect of miner-related sales, uncertainty over corporate Bitcoin holdings and a macroeconomic outlook shaped by Treasury yields and the Federal Reserve’s September decision. A close above $63,000 would strengthen the case that Bitcoin has moved beyond its most severe selling phase, while a failure to hold that level would keep the prospect of a later cycle low in play.
For deeper insight into cycle bottoms and macro drivers, explore our Bitcoin outlook in this in-depth analysis.
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