Bitcoin miner profitability has fallen to historic lows as the asset continues to hover around the $60,000 level, intensifying concerns about potential sell pressure from a sector that collectively holds more than $110 billion in Bitcoin.
Daily mining revenue has dropped sharply, with returns per terahash declining to $0.28 from $0.39 just a month ago. At current conditions, an Antminer S21 XP Hydro generates roughly $137 in monthly gross profit at an electricity cost of $0.07 per kilowatt-hour, down from $192 previously.
Profit pressure drives operational shifts
Weaker profitability has coincided with rising demand for artificial intelligence infrastructure. Some mining operators are now reallocating power capacity toward AI data center services, where demand appears more stable.
On-chain data shows sustained selling pressure through early May, as the 14-day average net position change for miner-controlled wallets remained negative. However, this trend recently shifted, with miners returning to accumulation after a six-week period of distribution ended in early June.
At the same time, network fee revenue has improved, reaching 89 BTC in May, the highest monthly level this year and offering modest financial relief.
Mining concentration and falling difficulty
The mining landscape has grown more concentrated. Foundry USA, AntPool, and F2Pool now control 59% of global hashrate, up from 44% in 2022, raising fresh attention to the distribution of computational power across the network.
Mounting pressure on margins is also affecting network mechanics. Mining difficulty is expected to drop by about 10.7% around mid-June, which would reduce the computational intensity required to earn rewards and provide some relief to remaining operators.
Cost dynamics highlight uneven industry conditions
Estimates place the full production cost of one Bitcoin, including depreciation and amortization, at around $62,650. The break-even level based solely on energy costs is करीब $50,120. In comparison, American Bitcoin Corp reported first-quarter 2026 production costs of about $36,200 per coin.
Costs vary widely across the sector, and some firms may continue operating at a loss for strategic or accounting reasons. Despite this, broader market demand currently exceeds miner supply, limiting the direct impact of miner selling on price.
ETFs reshape market influence
Market direction is increasingly shaped by flows into spot Bitcoin ETFs rather than miner activity. Since early 2024, these products have attracted more than $58 billion in net inflows, creating a dominant source of demand.
Flows have been volatile, with May seeing swings from over $1 billion in weekly inflows to more than $2 billion in outflows within a two-week span. Daily movements in these funds can reach hundreds of millions of dollars, far exceeding the value of newly mined Bitcoin.
Outlook hinges on macro sentiment
Historically, Bitcoin has traded below its implied production cost for extended periods, including stretches in 2019 and 2023. Current pricing may follow a similar pattern.
Analysts say future price direction will depend less on mining economics and more on broader macroeconomic sentiment and trader risk appetite.
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