Bitcoin traders who bought during the 2024–2025 market cycle may be showing early signs of capitulation, a pattern that has historically appeared near major market bottoms, according to new on-chain data from analytics firm Glassnode.
The firm said realized losses among Bitcoin holders whose coins are between one and two years old have risen to levels previously seen before broader market recoveries. This group includes many traders who entered after Bitcoin’s 2024 rally began and continued buying through the 2025 upswing, only to see prices later fall below their purchase levels.
Glassnode’s lead researcher, known as Cryptovizart, said the 30-day moving average of realized losses for this cohort recently climbed above $75 million before beginning to show a modest reversal. In earlier market cycles, a slowdown in realized losses from this group often came after the most intense phase of selling had already taken place.
The data is drawing attention because it suggests that a portion of newer Bitcoin holders may have already sold into weakness. If that selling pressure continues to fade, the market could be moving closer to a more durable low. However, analysts caution that on-chain signals do not confirm a bottom on their own and must be viewed alongside price action, liquidity, macroeconomic conditions and derivatives positioning.
Bitcoin traded near $62,800 in July 2024 before rising to about $107,000 by July 2025. That sharp move created large gains for early buyers but also encouraged late-cycle entries near elevated levels. As the market later weakened, many of those buyers were left holding coins below their acquisition prices, creating conditions for forced or emotional selling.
Glassnode’s report indicates that this pressure has been concentrated among holders who purchased during the latest expansion phase. Their realized losses show coins being moved at prices below their original cost basis, a sign that some traders are accepting losses rather than waiting for a recovery.
Realized loss data has long been used by on-chain analysts to study market stress. Unlike unrealized losses, which show only paper losses, realized losses track coins that are actually sold or transferred at a lower price than where they were acquired. When these losses reach extreme levels and then begin to ease, it can indicate that the weakest hands have already exited.
Why the one-to-two-year holder group matters
The one-to-two-year holder group is important because it often captures buyers from the most recent bull-market cycle. These traders are not brand-new entrants, but they are also not long-term holders from earlier Bitcoin eras. Their behavior can reveal whether the latest cycle’s buyers still have confidence or whether they are giving up.
In the current market, this cohort largely reflects traders who accumulated Bitcoin during the 2024 rally and the 2025 advance. Many bought after Bitcoin had already gained strong momentum, meaning their cost basis is higher than that of older holders. When prices fall below those levels, the group can become a source of selling pressure.
Glassnode’s observation that realized losses in this cohort rose above $75 million on a 30-day moving average suggests that the selling was not just a brief reaction to one volatile session. Instead, it reflected a more sustained period of loss-taking.
The more important development, according to the firm, is the early reversal in that trend. If realized losses continue to decline, it may indicate that pressure from these underwater holders is easing. Historically, that type of decline has often appeared after the most aggressive selling has already passed.
Still, the signal is not a guarantee of recovery. Markets can remain weak after capitulation-style events, especially if broader liquidity is tight or if traders lack confidence in risk assets. A bottoming process can also take weeks or months, with prices retesting key support levels before a stronger trend develops.
The $69,000 level returns to focus
Glassnode also identified $69,000 as a major level for Bitcoin’s near-term structure. The price is notable for two reasons: it sits near the cost basis of newer market participants, and it also matches the previous all-time high reached during the 2021 cycle.
That gives the level both technical and psychological importance. For traders who bought around that area, a return to $69,000 would bring many positions back toward break-even. That can create a busy zone in the market, as some traders may sell to exit flat, while others may add exposure if they view the level as confirmation of strength.
Glassnode described $69,000 as a key battleground between buyers and sellers. A sustained move above it could suggest that Bitcoin is building enough momentum to continue its recovery. A failure to hold above it, however, could keep the asset locked in its current trading range and encourage more short-term selling.
The level also carries historical weight because Bitcoin’s 2021 peak near $69,000 became one of the most watched reference points in the market. Former cycle highs often become important zones in later cycles. They can act as resistance when price is below them and support if price reclaims them convincingly.
For that reason, many traders are watching how Bitcoin behaves around the high-$60,000 to low-$70,000 area. A brief move above the zone may not be enough to change sentiment. Market participants are likely to look for stronger evidence, such as a weekly close above the range, rising spot demand and lower signs of forced selling.
Loss realization points to exhaustion, not certainty
The current realized-loss pattern suggests that the market may be working through the supply left behind by the previous cycle’s late buyers. When traders who bought near local highs finally sell at a loss, their coins often move into the hands of buyers with stronger conviction or lower cost bases.
That process can help form a foundation for a later recovery. However, it does not mean all selling pressure has disappeared. Markets can absorb one wave of supply and still face another if macroeconomic data worsens, liquidity dries up or leveraged positions unwind.
A more cautious interpretation is that the market may be entering an exhaustion phase, where the pace of loss-taking is slowing after a difficult period. This is different from saying a new bull trend has already begun. Traders typically look for confirmation from several areas before concluding that a durable low is in place.
Those areas include on-chain cost-basis levels, momentum indicators, spot trading volume, ETF flows, derivatives leverage, stablecoin liquidity and broader financial conditions. When several of these indicators improve at the same time, confidence in a bottoming structure tends to increase.
At the moment, the on-chain data is constructive but not decisive. The decline in realized losses would become more meaningful if Bitcoin can also reclaim important price levels and hold them without triggering another spike in selling.
Momentum indicators show early reversal signals
Other market gauges are also attracting attention. The two-month stochastic relative strength index, a momentum indicator used to measure whether an asset is overbought or oversold, is producing readings that have previously appeared near trend reversals.
Momentum indicators can be useful when markets are deeply stretched in one direction. When they begin to turn higher from weak levels, they can signal that selling pressure is losing strength. However, like on-chain data, they are not reliable in isolation.
In Bitcoin’s case, the combination of falling realized losses and improving momentum readings has encouraged some traders to look for signs of a cyclical low. The argument is that distressed holders may be selling less aggressively at the same time that price momentum is trying to stabilize.
Even so, reversal signals can fail. A market can flash early signs of improvement and still roll over if key resistance is rejected. That is why the $69,000 level is being watched closely. A strong move above that zone could add weight to the bullish interpretation, while repeated failures could suggest that sellers remain in control.
ETF assets add another layer of support
Separate market data shows that spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund assets have grown significantly, with total spot ETF assets reportedly reaching about $150 billion by mid-July 2026. The growth of these products has changed the structure of Bitcoin demand by giving traditional market participants a regulated way to gain exposure without directly holding coins.
Large ETF asset bases can help support market depth because they represent a sizeable pool of long-only demand. When ETF inflows are steady, they can absorb some available supply and reduce the impact of selling from short-term holders. That has led some market watchers to argue that ETFs may act as a stabilizing force during drawdowns.
Still, ETF assets should not be viewed as a permanent shield against price declines. ETF flows can slow or turn negative during periods of fear, rising interest rates or broader risk-off trading. If redemptions increase, ETFs can also become a source of selling pressure.
For now, the size of the spot ETF market remains an important factor in Bitcoin’s cycle. It gives Bitcoin access to a wider base of traders and institutions than in previous cycles, which may affect how future drawdowns and recoveries unfold. The presence of ETFs does not remove volatility, but it may change the way supply and demand respond at key price levels.
Derivatives positioning raises volatility risk
Derivatives data is another area being closely monitored. Total open interest across major trading platforms has reportedly moved above $74 billion, even during a relatively quiet period in July. Open interest measures the total value of outstanding futures and options contracts that have not been settled.
A high open-interest reading can signal strong market participation, but it can also raise the risk of sharp price swings. When many leveraged positions are open at the same time, a rapid move in either direction can trigger liquidations and force traders to close positions. That can amplify volatility.
This matters for Bitcoin’s current setup because a move through a major level such as $69,000 or $70,000 could cause a quick reaction in derivatives markets. If traders are heavily positioned on one side, a breakout or breakdown may be exaggerated by forced buying or forced selling.
High open interest does not predict direction. It only shows that a large amount of capital is tied to bets on future price movement. The direction of the next major move will likely depend on whether spot demand can overcome resistance and whether sellers continue reducing their loss-taking.
Traders watch the $70,000 zone
The area just above $70,000 has become a closely watched zone for short-term traders. It sits near the psychological round number that follows the $69,000 historical level and may serve as confirmation if Bitcoin can break above the broader resistance band.
Some traders prefer to wait for a weekly close above major resistance before increasing exposure, because intraday breakouts can reverse quickly. Others may use staggered entries to avoid chasing sudden price spikes. In both cases, risk control remains important, particularly with open interest elevated and the market still testing whether its recovery is durable.
A failure to hold the $69,000 to $70,000 region could keep Bitcoin within its current range. In that scenario, traders may look for support near recent lows and monitor whether realized losses begin rising again. A renewed surge in loss-taking would weaken the argument that selling pressure has already peaked.
A sustained move above the zone, by contrast, would likely draw more attention to the possibility that Bitcoin has completed a larger bottoming phase. It could also shift focus to higher resistance bands formed during the decline from the 2025 highs.
Macroeconomic backdrop remains important
Bitcoin’s on-chain setup is developing against a mixed macroeconomic backdrop. Recent government labor data showing only 181,000 jobs added during the prior tracking period has reinforced concerns about slowing economic momentum.
Weaker employment data can influence expectations for monetary policy, liquidity and demand for alternative stores of value. If traders believe central banks may become more supportive in response to slower growth, risk assets can benefit. At the same time, a weakening economy can also reduce appetite for volatile assets if recession fears rise.
That tension makes the macro backdrop important for Bitcoin. The asset has often responded to changes in liquidity expectations, real yields and the strength of the U.S. dollar. If financial conditions loosen, Bitcoin may find stronger support. If markets become defensive, even constructive on-chain signals may struggle to translate into sustained gains.
Bottom signals are building, but confirmation is still needed
The latest Glassnode data suggests that Bitcoin’s recent weakness may have pushed a key group of 2024–2025 buyers into a capitulation phase. Realized losses above $75 million on a 30-day moving average, followed by an early decline, resemble patterns that have appeared near prior cycle lows.
The signal is especially important because it comes from holders who bought during the most recent market expansion. If their selling is fading, one of the more significant sources of pressure may be easing.
But the market has not yet delivered full confirmation. Bitcoin still needs to prove it can reclaim and hold the $69,000 to $70,000 region, while ETF flows, derivatives leverage and macroeconomic conditions remain central to the outlook.
For now, the data points to a market that may be moving from stress toward stabilization. Whether that becomes a lasting recovery will depend on what happens next at the key levels now directly overhead.
Still watching capitulation data? Compare it with price action and resistance in our latest on-chain outlook: read more.
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