Bitcoin’s long-term chart is approaching a potentially important decision point, with several major technical indicators clustering around the same price zone and time window, according to former NYSE ARCA market maker Eric Krown. He said Bitcoin could confirm a macro bottom if it finishes the month above two key levels: $63,735 and $64,371.
Krown placed an estimated 85% probability on confirmation of a long-term bottom by early August, assuming Bitcoin holds those levels into the monthly close. His view is based on a mix of moving averages, momentum signals, historical cycle timing, sentiment readings and inflation-adjusted price comparisons.
The central argument is straightforward: Bitcoin does not need a dramatic rally to improve its long-term structure. It needs to avoid losing support and close the month above a narrow technical band. If that happens, Krown said several independent indicators would begin pointing in the same direction, suggesting current prices may be part of a base-building process rather than the continuation of a broader downturn.
The technical setup comes as broader market data also shows signs of stabilization. Bitcoin open interest is near $47.6 billion, a relatively steady level that suggests traders are not aggressively using borrowed money to drive prices higher. At the same time, the Crypto Fear and Greed Index has climbed back to a neutral reading of 49 after spending months in deeply fearful territory.
That shift does not confirm a new bull phase by itself. But it reduces the appearance of panic and suggests that the market has moved away from the extreme stress conditions seen during the recent sell-off. The combination of lower leverage, improving sentiment and key monthly price levels has made the next close especially important for traders watching long-term trend signals.
Technical levels draw attention
Krown identified $63,735 as the monthly recovery level tied to Bitcoin’s 55-day exponential moving average, or EMA. A move above that level would show that Bitcoin has recovered an important trend gauge used by many technical traders.
The second level, $64,371, comes from the monthly stochastic oscillator, which tracks momentum and can signal shifts when it crosses upward from depressed levels. Krown said a monthly close above that figure would create an upward crossover, a signal that has appeared near important turning points in previous Bitcoin cycles.
By itself, neither level guarantees that a bottom is in place. Moving averages can be lost again, and momentum signals can fail. But Krown’s point is that these levels are not appearing in isolation. He said a monthly close above both would align with two additional indicators: a shift in the monthly MACD and a relative strength index reading similar to levels seen near past cycle lows.
The MACD, or moving average convergence divergence indicator, is widely used to track changes in market momentum. When it begins turning higher after a prolonged decline, traders often view it as a sign that downside pressure is weakening. The RSI, or relative strength index, measures whether an asset is stretched to the upside or downside. Readings near previous cycle lows can suggest that selling pressure has reached an advanced stage.
Krown said the importance of the $63,735 to $64,371 zone lies in the way these separate tools are converging. In his view, Bitcoin’s long-term structure would improve meaningfully if the monthly candle closes above both markers.
Timing model points to early august
Krown also cited historical cycle timing to support the early August window. In both 2018 and 2022, he said the time between the trough in Bitcoin’s monthly MACD histogram and the final price low was 168 days.
Using the same measurement in the current cycle, Krown said the next major inflection point would fall in early August. That timing aligns with the same monthly momentum indicators now approaching potential bullish shifts.
The argument is not that Bitcoin must bottom on an exact date. Historical timing models are imperfect, and market structure can change from cycle to cycle. But Krown said the repeated 168-day pattern from prior bear-market phases is notable because it now overlaps with other signals that are also nearing confirmation.
That overlap is the core of his thesis. A single indicator may be easy to dismiss. Several indicators pointing to the same period can attract more attention from traders focused on macro trend changes.
Bitcoin has often formed major lows during periods when price action appears weak but momentum has already begun to stabilize beneath the surface. Krown said the current setup resembles those prior periods, provided Bitcoin does not lose the nearby support structure before the monthly close.
The LTI model shows a familiar drawdown
Krown also referred to his proprietary Long-Term Investor model, known as the LTI model, which combines volatility and momentum data to identify high-probability long-term accumulation zones.
According to Krown, Bitcoin has shown a consistent pattern across four prior market cycles after the LTI model produced a “strong buy” signal. In those cases, Bitcoin fell between 20% and 23% from the signal price before eventually putting in its final bottom.
The latest LTI signal appeared in January 2026. Since then, Bitcoin has corrected by 22.64%, placing the current decline inside the historical range seen after earlier signals from the model.
Krown said this does not mean the market is risk-free. Instead, it suggests Bitcoin’s current drawdown is behaving in a way that matches previous late-stage bear-market or correction structures. If the model continues to follow its historical pattern, the recent decline may already have reached the type of depth normally seen near long-term bottoms.
Still, model-based signals can fail, especially in markets affected by macroeconomic shocks, liquidity changes or sudden policy developments. Krown said the structure would be weakened if Bitcoin closes below $60,000 on a sustained biweekly basis. That level remains the key invalidation point in his framework.
Sentiment has stayed depressed while price recovered
Sentiment is another part of Krown’s case. He said the crypto Fear and Greed Index remained below 20 for several months even as Bitcoin prices began to recover from recent lows.
That kind of divergence has appeared near previous macro bottoms, including periods in 2015, 2019 and 2022. In those cases, public mood stayed extremely negative while price began stabilizing or moving higher. The result was a gap between sentiment and price action.
Krown said that kind of setup can be important because markets often form bottoms when traders remain cautious, not when enthusiasm is already widespread. A rebound during a period of deep fear can suggest that sellers are losing control even though confidence has not fully returned.
The latest reading of the Fear and Greed Index has moved back to 49, which is considered neutral. That marks a substantial shift from extreme fear, though it does not show excessive optimism. A neutral reading can indicate that panic has faded, while still leaving room for confirmation from price action.
The change follows a difficult month for cryptocurrency-linked exchange-traded funds, which saw more than $3 billion in cash outflows. Heavy redemptions often reflect caution among market participants, particularly after sharp price swings. But if price holds firm after large outflows, some traders interpret that as evidence that selling pressure is being absorbed.
Open interest suggests leverage is not extreme
Bitcoin open interest, which tracks the value of outstanding derivatives contracts, is near $47.6 billion. That level is not low in absolute terms, but it appears relatively stable compared with periods of aggressive speculative buildup.
A sharp rise in open interest can increase the risk of forced liquidations if traders are heavily positioned in one direction. When too much leverage builds up, even a moderate price decline can trigger forced selling, creating fast and disorderly moves lower.
The current open interest backdrop suggests the market is not being driven mainly by a surge in borrowed exposure. That matters because healthier bases often form when leverage is reduced and price action is supported more by spot demand than by crowded derivatives positioning.
Krown’s technical view is therefore being discussed alongside a derivatives market that does not appear to show extreme overheating. That does not remove downside risk, but it may reduce the chance of a sudden liquidation cascade unless support levels break sharply.
Inflation-adjusted prices change the comparison
Krown also used money supply data to argue that Bitcoin has already revisited an important prior stress point in real terms. He said that, when measured against the M2 monetary base, Bitcoin has effectively retested the August 2024 flash-crash equivalent of $49,270.
The argument is based on the expansion of U.S. money supply since 2020. Krown said M2 has grown by roughly 40% to 50% over that period, changing how traders should compare nominal prices across cycles.
In simple terms, a Bitcoin price level from several years ago may not carry the same real value today if the money supply has expanded significantly. Adjusting for that change can make current prices appear closer to prior panic lows than the nominal chart suggests.
This type of analysis is not universally accepted, and it depends heavily on the chosen inflation or money supply measure. Still, it adds another layer to Krown’s view that Bitcoin has already suffered a meaningful real-terms reset.
The broader idea is that Bitcoin’s price may look higher than prior lows in dollar terms, while still reflecting a deep correction after accounting for monetary expansion.
Broader markets show rotation
Krown also discussed broader financial markets, saying the semiconductor sector appears to have peaked in early July after gaining about 300% since April 2025. He said capital seems to be rotating into biotechnology and industrial shares.
The biotechnology fund IBB recently completed a technical breakout, according to Krown, while industrial equities are showing relative strength heading into the fourth quarter. That rotation matters because Bitcoin often trades within a wider risk-asset environment.
If market leadership shifts away from overheated technology segments and into other sectors, it may signal a more selective market rather than a broad liquidation environment. A healthier rotation can support overall risk appetite, though it does not guarantee that Bitcoin will rise.
Krown’s comments suggest that traders should watch not only Bitcoin’s chart but also sector leadership across traditional markets. When only one crowded sector drives gains, markets can become fragile. When leadership broadens or rotates, risk conditions may stabilize.
Commodities send mixed signals
Krown also pointed to commodities, where he sees different long-term trends for gold and copper. He said gold reached a top on a ten-year cycle in January and may trade sideways or lower in the coming years.
Copper, by contrast, has broken out of a 20-year consolidation pattern, according to Krown. He said copper has reached a projected target near $8 per pound and is benefiting from rising demand tied to artificial intelligence data center infrastructure.
Copper is widely viewed as an industrial growth signal because of its use in electrical systems, construction, power grids and technology infrastructure. Rising demand from AI-related data centers could support long-term consumption, especially as energy and computing needs expand.
The contrast between gold and copper may indicate a shift in how markets are pricing future growth and inflation. Gold often benefits during periods of monetary stress or defensive positioning, while copper tends to perform better when traders expect industrial demand to remain strong.
For Bitcoin, the commodity backdrop is indirect but still relevant. If copper strength reflects durable demand for infrastructure and technology spending, it may support broader risk appetite. If gold weakens after a long-cycle high, it may suggest defensive trades are losing momentum.
The key risk remains a break below $60,000
Despite the improving signals, Krown said the bullish bottoming structure depends on Bitcoin holding critical support. A sustained biweekly close below $60,000 would undermine the technical setup he described.
That level is important because it would suggest Bitcoin has failed to hold the base forming beneath the monthly EMA and momentum thresholds. It could also reset sentiment and increase the risk of renewed downside.
For traders, the current environment remains confirmation-driven. A monthly close above $63,735 and $64,371 would strengthen the case for a macro bottom. A sustained break below $60,000 would weaken it.
The market is therefore entering a narrow technical window. Bitcoin does not need to make a new high to confirm improvement, but it does need to hold the recovery zone long enough for monthly indicators to turn.
Traders wait for confirmation
The current data paints a more balanced market than the one seen during the recent downturn. Open interest is steady, sentiment has recovered to neutral, and leverage does not appear to be excessive. At the same time, ETF outflows and a still-fragile long-term trend show that confidence has not fully returned.
Krown’s conclusion is that Bitcoin’s long-term trend remains under pressure, but several independent momentum indicators are now aligning within a narrow time frame. If Bitcoin sustains monthly closes above the specified thresholds, he expects the broader market to increasingly treat the current range as a forming base rather than an ongoing decline.
For traders who prefer confirmation, the monthly close is the key event. A clear finish above the technical band would support the bottoming argument. Failure to hold the area, especially if followed by a biweekly close below $60,000, would keep downside risk in focus.
The next several weeks may therefore be less about short-term volatility and more about whether Bitcoin can complete a higher-time-frame repair. If the technical signals confirm together, early August could become a key reference point in the current cycle. If they fail, the market may need more time before a durable bottom can be established.
Track Bitcoin’s macro bottom signals and sentiment cycles in depth with this guide: learn more.
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