Bitcoin held near $64,000 despite $211.5 million of net inflows into U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs on Aug. 4, underscoring how fund demand has so far failed to produce a decisive spot-market breakout. Bitcoin traded around $64,600 on Wednesday, while market participants watched $65,000 as the immediate barrier to a stronger recovery.
Spot ether ETFs also attracted $53.8 million in net inflows on Aug. 4, yet ether remained below $2,000, hovering near $1,900. The restrained reaction across both assets came as U.S. equities advanced sharply, with the Nasdaq gaining 2.6% and the S&P 500 closing at 7,737, according to Wintermute.
Etf inflows have not lifted spot momentum
Jasper De Maere, an OTC trader at Wintermute, said ETF-related buying had not translated into a clear outright long position in the spot market. That distinction helps explain why positive daily fund flows have coincided with limited price movement: ETF subscriptions can support demand without immediately changing the positioning of traders active in spot and derivatives markets.
Wintermute estimated that bitcoin options were pricing a 1.01% move into Wednesday’s expiry. Based on bitcoin’s level at the time, that implied a range of roughly $63,454 to $64,749, a narrow band for an asset that has often moved more sharply around macroeconomic events.
Glassnode similarly described bitcoin’s lack of movement as a defining feature of the week. The blockchain analytics firm said bitcoin had lagged broader markets by more than four percentage points while global equity benchmarks reached records. The divergence left bitcoin trading in a confined range even as risk appetite improved elsewhere.
A move above $65,000 would place bitcoin above a major near-term resistance zone, according to De Maere. Until then, inflows into spot ETFs appear to be cushioning the market more than driving a sustained rally.
A dense cost basis sits between $62,000 and $65,000
Bitfinex analysts said roughly 155,000 BTC had accumulated in the $62,000-to-$65,000 range, forming bitcoin’s largest onchain cost-basis cluster. That represents about 0.7% of circulating supply, according to the firm’s analysis.
Cost basis measures the price at which coins last moved onchain and is often used to identify areas where holders may be more likely to defend positions or sell near breakeven. In this case, the range has developed into a closely watched trading zone: a fall below it could place more recent buyers at a loss, while a sustained rise above it could reduce pressure from holders seeking to exit near their entry price.
Bitfinex noted that bitcoin had recorded two daily closes below $63,000, matching its downside signal. The firm said the defense of the $62,000-to-$65,000 range, together with changes in real yields, would probably shape the next directional move.
Real yields reflect returns after inflation. Higher real yields can increase the appeal of lower-risk interest-bearing assets and weigh on speculative markets, while falling yields can ease that pressure.
Dormant coins moved without visible exchange selling
Onchain activity increased after reports that 594 BTC linked to Coldcard hardware wallets had been stolen on July 31, an amount then valued at about $38 million. Over the following three days, approximately 119,000 BTC that had been dormant for at least a year became active, according to Glassnode.
The volume was far larger than the reported theft, but Glassnode said it did not detect measurable spot selling pressure linked to the reactivated supply. Instead, the firm said much of the bitcoin moved into new cold-storage addresses rather than to trading venues.
Only around one-tenth of the revived supply remained on exchanges, Glassnode said. It also reported that the supply held in wallets younger than one month rose 40% after the movements, suggesting coins were being reorganized or transferred to newer ownership structures rather than immediately prepared for sale.
K33 Research reported that bitcoin’s seven-day active supply reached a 2026 high during the period, with around 890,000 BTC moved. Vetle Lunde, head of research at K33, said spikes in active supply have historically appeared near local market tops and bottoms, though the measure alone does not establish which direction prices will take.
Onchain indicators point to pressure, not capitulation
Glassnode said its Seller Exhaustion Constant had fallen to the lowest level of the current cycle and entered a range associated with previous market bottoms. The metric remained roughly one-third above the floor reached in earlier bear-market phases, leaving room for further weakness if macroeconomic conditions deteriorate.
Bitfinex added that 54.6% of bitcoin supply was in profit as of the Aug. 2 close. The analysts linked that share to conditions seen near cycle bottoms in earlier periods, when a large part of the market had returned close to breakeven after a decline.
The data presents a mixed picture. The $62,000-to-$65,000 area contains substantial recent buying, while lower levels show signs of seller fatigue. Yet neither pattern removes the risk of a breakdown if buyers retreat or macro conditions turn against risk assets.
Jobs data and rate expectations come next
Kyle Rodda, a market analyst at Capital.com, said attention had shifted toward the U.S. jobs report as geopolitical tensions eased, Brent crude fell below $80, and expectations for additional Federal Reserve tightening declined.
Rodda said markets were pricing roughly a 60% chance of a September Federal Reserve rate hike after softer job-openings data, down from odds that had reached 100% before the previous week’s Federal Open Market Committee meeting. Economists expected 85,000 jobs to have been added in July, with unemployment holding at 4.2%.
Glassnode said past periods of similarly compressed one-month realized bitcoin volatility had generally been followed by an upward resolution around major macro releases. With options pricing only a limited immediate move and bitcoin remaining below $65,000, the jobs report could test whether the current range is a base for renewed demand or simply a pause before another challenge of support.
Wondering if ETF demand can finally push BTC higher? Explore how interest rates shape Bitcoin’s next move now.
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