Bitcoin remained above its closely watched 200-week trend line for a third straight week, closing near $63,700 early Monday, as traders weighed improving crypto sentiment against a sharp rise in oil prices driven by renewed tensions between the United States and Iran.
The largest cryptocurrency continued to hold above its 200-week simple moving average, which stood near $63,322. That level has become an important short-term marker for market direction after bitcoin repeatedly defended it as support. The next major technical barrier is the 200-week exponential moving average near $68,521, a zone that could limit any near-term recovery attempt if buying momentum fails to strengthen.
The move came as global markets faced a more unsettled macro backdrop. West Texas Intermediate crude climbed above $80 a barrel, while Brent crude moved past $90, reaching five-week highs after new U.S.–Iran tensions and disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most important energy routes. The rise in oil prices added pressure to risk-sensitive assets, including cryptocurrencies, at a time when traders are also preparing for a busy week of large U.S. corporate earnings.
Bitcoin’s ability to hold support has encouraged some short-term technical optimism, with market watchers pointing to possible upside targets between $65,000 and $67,000 if momentum continues. However, the broader structure of the market remains fragile. Spot demand has weakened again after a brief rebound earlier in July, while derivatives activity remains elevated, suggesting that leveraged positioning is playing a larger role than direct cash buying.
Bitcoin holds key weekly support
The 200-week moving average has historically been treated as one of bitcoin’s most important long-term trend indicators. When price trades above it, traders often see the market as having avoided deeper structural weakness. When price falls below it, concerns typically rise that a broader downturn could be developing.
Bitcoin’s latest weekly close near $63,700 kept the asset slightly above the 200-week simple moving average. That was enough to preserve the support zone for a third consecutive week, but the margin remains thin. A decisive move below that level could change short-term sentiment quickly, especially with derivatives positioning already stretched.
The next level being watched is the 200-week exponential moving average near $68,521. Unlike the simple moving average, the exponential version gives greater weight to recent price action. That makes it more responsive and, in the current market, places it above spot price. A move toward that area would likely test whether the recent bounce has enough support from spot buyers or whether it is mainly being driven by short covering and leveraged trades.
Some independent technical analysts have also pointed to bullish divergences in momentum indicators such as the relative strength index. A bullish divergence occurs when price makes a lower low or struggles near support while momentum forms a higher low, suggesting that selling pressure may be weakening. These signals can precede short-term rebounds, but they are not confirmation of a new uptrend by themselves.
Cycle views remain divided
Broader cycle analysis remains mixed. Some traders continue to track bitcoin’s historical four-year pattern, which is often linked to the halving cycle and the rhythm of past bull and bear markets. Under that framework, 2026 is still viewed by some analysts as part of a bearish phase rather than the beginning of a sustained expansion.
Independent analyst Rekt Capital has argued that the current bear market is roughly 70% complete, with a possible market bottom projected sometime in 2027. That outlook suggests that, while short-term rebounds are possible, the broader cycle may still need more time before forming a durable long-term low.
That view is not universal. Other traders are focused less on long-term cycle theory and more on liquidity, ETF flows, inflation data, and derivatives positioning. In the current market, those shorter-term factors have become especially important because spot demand has not yet shown the strength normally associated with a lasting recovery.
The result is a market that is technically stable but not yet convincing. Bitcoin has defended a critical support zone, sentiment has improved, and ETF inflows have returned. At the same time, market data show that the most reliable form of demand — direct spot buying — remains weak.
Oil shock complicates the macro picture
The biggest external risk now comes from energy markets. Renewed tensions between the United States and Iran have pushed crude prices sharply higher. The temporary closure of the Strait of Hormuz intensified concerns because the route is vital for global oil and gas shipments.
Higher oil prices can feed into inflation expectations, complicate central bank policy, and reduce appetite for risk assets. For bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies, the effect is indirect but important. When energy prices rise quickly, traders often reduce exposure to volatile assets and move toward cash or traditional hedges until the macro picture becomes clearer.
The latest oil rally also comes after recent U.S. inflation data came in below forecasts. Softer inflation had helped improve sentiment across risk markets because it suggested that price pressures were easing. However, a sustained rise in crude could challenge that view if it leads to higher fuel, transport, and production costs.
According to CME Group’s FedWatch Tool, market pricing has reflected expectations for a 0.25% interest-rate hike in September. Traders are watching closely for signs that the Federal Reserve may need to respond more aggressively if energy-driven inflation returns.
U.S. President Donald Trump described the latest inflation figures as positive and pointed to growth in factory construction and manufacturing output. Those comments reinforced the administration’s view that the economy remains resilient. Still, for financial markets, the central issue is whether lower inflation data can survive a new energy shock.
Spot demand weakens after July rebound
Crypto market data show that spot bitcoin demand has deteriorated after improving briefly in early July. Thirty-day spot demand weakened from roughly negative 80,000 BTC to nearly negative 170,000 BTC, indicating that selling pressure in the spot market remains significant.
This matters because spot buying is the foundation of a sustainable rally. When price rises mainly because of derivatives positioning, short covering, or liquidations, the move can fade quickly. A stronger advance usually requires fresh, consistent cash demand from traders willing to hold the asset rather than merely trade price swings with leverage.
Spot bitcoin ETFs still recorded inflows during four of five trading days last week, which helped improve sentiment. However, the recent inflow was not large enough to fully offset the scale of earlier withdrawals from crypto-linked products. Around $273 million entered exchange-traded products over a fourteen-day period, but that figure remains modest compared with the billions that left the sector previously.
The imbalance explains why the market has looked more stable without yet looking strong. ETF inflows have helped prevent deeper losses, but they have not yet created the kind of broad demand needed to overpower weak spot activity and heavy derivatives exposure.
Derivatives dominate market direction
One of the main concerns is that leverage appears to be controlling price direction more than direct spot purchases. Derivatives open interest recently moved beyond the highest levels recorded during the peaks of 2025, according to market data. Elevated open interest can support sharp moves in either direction, but it also increases the risk of sudden liquidations.
When too many traders are positioned in leveraged contracts, a relatively small price move can trigger forced selling or forced buying. If bitcoin falls below a key support level, long positions may be liquidated automatically, adding more sell pressure. If price rises sharply, short positions may be forced to close, accelerating the rally. In both cases, moves can become larger and faster than spot market activity alone would justify.
Current futures market data show modest inflows, while short covering and reduced selling pressure have helped stabilize prices. But analysts from independent market data firms have warned that renewed spot selling could still trigger a sharp downward move if leveraged longs are forced out.
That is why the market’s current structure is being described as fragile. Price has not collapsed, but the support behind it is uneven. A rally built mainly on leverage can extend for a while, especially if sentiment improves, but it becomes vulnerable when spot demand fails to confirm the move.
Independent analyst Massabni recently noted that current conditions still lack a strong catalyst for a lasting recovery. That view fits with the broader ETF inflows have improved, sentiment is less fearful, and technical support has held, but a decisive driver has not yet emerged.
Miner revenue signal improves but remains incomplete
Mining data also offer a mixed signal. The Puell Multiple, which compares bitcoin miners’ daily revenue with its long-term average, climbed from 0.87 in June. That June reading was the lowest since September 2024 and suggested that miners had faced a period of reduced revenue pressure.
Historically, low Puell Multiple readings have appeared near major market troughs because miners tend to come under stress when bitcoin prices fall and revenue declines. When that stress becomes extreme, weaker miners may capitulate, sometimes marking the later stages of a bear market.
However, the signal has become less direct in recent cycles. Since 2018, each bitcoin cycle has produced higher lows in the Puell Multiple, while peak-to-trough price declines have become somewhat smaller. Bitcoin fell about 83% in the 2018 bear market and about 77% in the 2022 bear market. The higher Puell lows suggest that miner stress may be less extreme than in earlier cycles.
The recent rebound in the Puell Multiple indicates that miner pressure is easing rather than reaching a generational low. For a stronger bottoming signal, the metric would likely need to remain depressed for several weeks or show a clearer capitulation phase. At current levels, it points more to stabilization than to a confirmed long-term market bottom.
Sentiment moves away from extreme fear
The Crypto Fear & Greed Index rose to 29 out of 100 on Monday, its highest level since early June. The reading moved the market away from the “extreme fear” zone, though it still reflected caution rather than confidence.
The improvement followed renewed spot bitcoin ETF inflows, softer U.S. inflation data, and bitcoin’s defense of the 200-week support region. Sentiment indicators often respond quickly to price stabilization, especially after prolonged weakness. Still, a reading below 30 shows that traders remain wary.
Fear and greed measures are useful as a snapshot of mood, but they do not replace liquidity and demand data. In this case, sentiment has improved while spot demand has weakened, creating a gap between mood and market structure. That gap may become important if macro volatility increases.
Technology earnings add another risk layer
Beyond oil and inflation, traders are also watching large U.S. technology earnings. Tesla is scheduled to release detailed financial results after the market closes on Wednesday, July 22. Alphabet and Intel are also expected to report during a busy earnings week.
Tesla has already reported record quarterly vehicle deliveries of 480,126 cars, but its shares still dropped nearly 7% as concerns grew over shrinking profit margins. The reaction highlighted how strongly markets are focused on profitability, not just growth.
Large technology shares often influence broader risk appetite. When major growth stocks sell off sharply, pressure can spill into cryptocurrencies because both sectors tend to attract traders with higher tolerance for volatility. Conversely, strong earnings and upbeat guidance can support risk appetite and help stabilize crypto markets.
The connection is not mechanical, but it is important. Bitcoin increasingly trades within the wider risk-asset environment, especially during weeks dominated by central bank expectations, inflation data, oil prices, and technology earnings. That means crypto-specific signals may not be enough to determine direction if global macro conditions shift quickly.
Risk controls come back into focus
With bitcoin trading just above major support and derivatives exposure elevated, many active traders are focusing on risk controls. Tight stop levels below established support zones have become more relevant because a break lower could trigger forced selling across leveraged positions.
Some traders are also reducing exposure to borrowed contracts while waiting for clearer confirmation from spot volume. In a market where open interest is high and cash demand is weak, leverage can magnify losses quickly if price moves against crowded positions.
Profit-taking near resistance is also becoming more common. The $65,000 to $67,000 zone is viewed as a near-term target area, while the 200-week exponential moving average near $68,521 remains a more significant resistance level. If bitcoin reaches those areas without stronger spot participation, some traders may choose to lock in partial gains rather than assume a sustained breakout.
Others are watching commodities, especially crude oil, as a hedge against geopolitical supply shocks. A portion of capital moving toward physical commodities or commodity-linked exposure can reflect caution when overseas tensions threaten energy flows. That shift may reduce demand for high-risk assets in the short term.
For now, bitcoin’s market picture is balanced but unstable. The asset has defended a critical long-term trend line, ETF flows have improved, and sentiment has moved away from extreme fear. But spot demand remains weak, leverage is elevated, oil prices are rising, and major earnings could add volatility.
The next decisive move will likely depend on whether real spot buying returns. Without it, any rally may remain vulnerable to sudden reversals driven by derivatives liquidations and macro shocks. With it, bitcoin could challenge nearby resistance and rebuild confidence above the 200-week support zone.
Concerned about fragile BTC structure and sentiment? Deepen your edge with this guide to the Crypto Fear & Greed Index today.
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