Bitcoin could drop as much as 20% from current levels, with a potential floor near $48,000, according to Bitwise Head of Research Europe André Dragosch. The level reflects the long-term holder cost basis and represents a so-called “max pain” scenario if selling pressure intensifies.
Current support levels and recent price action
Structural support sits below current prices, including the 200-week moving average around $61,000 and a realized price near $56,000. Bitcoin has already fallen about 28% from its May peak near $82,000 to below $60,000 during the latest correction. Prices recently hovered just above $63,300, lifting total market capitalization to roughly $1.3 trillion.
Dragosch said Bitwise’s internal bottom-cycle probability model started trending higher last week, even though on-chain metrics remain weaker than levels typically seen at prior market bottoms.
Further downside risk flagged by research firms
Separate analysis from Galaxy suggests the market has not yet reached full stabilization. Head of firmwide research Alex Thorn noted that only four of 13 historical bottoming indicators have been triggered. Galaxy’s base-case scenario places a potential bottom between $40,000 and $46,000, possibly before the end of 2026.
While past cycles often saw drawdowns of 75% to 80%, analysts say those extremes are becoming less common as Bitcoin matures and volatility gradually declines.
Outflows and macro pressures weigh on sentiment
Recent selling pressure has been linked to heavy outflows from crypto exchange-traded products. About $2 billion exited these funds in a single week, equivalent to nearly 50,000 BTC sold in a short period. Over the past four weeks, U.S. spot ETFs alone have recorded more than $5.4 billion in net outflows, including $1.72 billion in the week ending June 6, the largest weekly exit since early 2025.
On-chain data reinforces the cautious mood. Bitcoin’s realized cap has posted a negative 30-day change for the first time since March, signaling capital is leaving the network. At the same time, the adjusted SOPR metric has stayed below 1.0 for nearly two weeks, indicating coins are being sold at a loss.
Despite a partial recovery in total crypto market capitalization to about $2.25 trillion, the Crypto Fear & Greed Index remains at 12, pointing to persistent “extreme fear” among traders. Analysts attribute the downturn largely to macroeconomic factors such as inflation and tighter monetary policy, rather than internal industry shocks.
Altcoins lag as regulatory outlook remains uncertain
Alternative tokens continue to show limited strength, with market indicators failing to signal a sustained rotation of capital beyond Bitcoin. Bitwise’s Altcoin Excitement Index reflects subdued activity, suggesting any broader rally in altcoins may depend on regulatory clarity.
Attention is focused on the U.S. Clarity Act, a bill aimed at defining crypto market structure. Prediction markets currently assign about a 60% chance of passage this year, down from earlier expectations. Analysts cite timing constraints in the Senate rather than opposition to the bill itself.
Dragosch added that corporate treasury accumulation remains largely intact despite recent volatility, contrasting ongoing large-scale product outflows with relatively small sales from individual firms.
Concerned about Bitcoin’s downside risk? Learn how macro trends and ETFs shape BTC’s path in this detailed analysis.
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