Bitcoin entered what analysts describe as a “high-risk” phase this week, as sustained selling from United States spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and weakening demand weigh on prices.
Swissblock said on Tuesday its Bitcoin Risk Index rose to 33 out of 100, a level it links to elevated and persistent selling pressure from large market participants. The firm warned that without stronger ETF inflows, risk readings could climb further.
Etf outflows drive structural selling
Swissblock said its index tracks the balance between buying and selling to gauge prevailing market risk. After an accumulation phase in March and April, the firm sees clear signs that May has shifted into distribution, with dominant players moving from net buyers to net sellers.
According to Swissblock, demand from spot Bitcoin ETFs is no longer sufficient to absorb sell-side pressure. The firm reported a “visible correlation” between accelerating ETF outflows and a higher risk index, reinforcing the view that selling is structural rather than random.
On-chain data provider Glassnode separately reported that U.S. Bitcoin ETFs have posted net outflows on nearly every trading day since May 7, totaling more than two weeks of persistent redemptions. This pattern has increased the supply of Bitcoin on the market without a comparable rise in demand.
Over the past two weeks alone, more than $2 billion has been withdrawn from U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs, according to market data. Analysts noted that the broader digital asset market remains constrained, with only limited new capital entering to offset these sales.
Capital exodus erodes 2026 net inflows
The transition from accumulation to distribution means that large holders are now actively releasing coins back into the open market. That shift has been illustrated by a recent six-day streak of ETF withdrawals that removed $1.55 billion from spot products.
For the week of May 11–17, net outflows from U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs reached $1.26 billion, the largest weekly withdrawal since late January 2026.
Swissblock said the risk index at 33 confirms this is a “methodical unwinding” of sizeable positions, rather than sporadic selling. As a result, total net inflows to U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs for 2026 have shrunk to about $536 million, a sharp comedown from the strong intake seen earlier in the year.
Price holds range amid geopolitical tensions
The fragile backdrop was tested early Tuesday after reports that the United States conducted military strikes on Iranian targets, including missile sites and boats linked to mine deployment.
U.S. Central Command described the actions as self-defense operations aimed at protecting personnel from perceived Iranian threats.
Following the reports, Bitcoin slipped about 1%, dropping from above $77,000 to below $76,500, based on market tracking data. Despite the move, Bitcoin has remained locked in a relatively narrow trading band for nearly four months, with key short-term levels seen around $75,000–$76,000.
Analysts say a sustained break below this zone could open the way to lower technical supports near $72,000.
Market closely watching ETF flows and headlines
Market watchers are paying particular attention to daily ETF flow reports. A clear and sustained return to positive inflows is seen as the first concrete sign that institutional demand is regaining strength and is once again able to absorb excess supply.
The recent price reaction to Middle East headlines highlights Bitcoin’s sensitivity to geopolitical developments. Further escalation could produce sharp, sudden moves in an already strained market.
At the same time, reports that a potential peace framework between the U.S. and Iran is being discussed are seen as a possible catalyst for improved risk appetite across global markets, which could ease some pressure on Bitcoin if they materialize.
Want deeper insight into how macro shifts move BTC? Explore the Fed’s impact on crypto for key market signals.
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