Arkham Intelligence has launched a new ranking system that measures trader performance in prediction markets based on accuracy rather than profits, marking a shift in how success is evaluated across the sector.
Accuracy over profit takes center stage
The model uses an Elo/MMR-style scoring method, rewarding traders who make correct predictions in less favorable conditions. This approach prioritizes consistency and forecasting skill rather than the size of trades or total returns.
Under this framework, traders with smaller positions but higher win rates can outrank those generating larger profits with lower accuracy. The company said the system is designed to better reflect predictive ability in increasingly competitive markets.
Early rankings highlight active Polymarket traders
At launch, the rankings largely feature users from Polymarket, one of the largest prediction platforms. Among the top performers is a trader known as “GardenerCx,” who achieved a 64.3% success rate across 2,644 trades, primarily in short-term digital asset markets.
Arkham has made these rankings publicly accessible through its analytics platform, allowing users to review detailed performance data, including trade history, win rates, and market focus.
Surge in trading activity fuels new tools
The rollout comes as prediction market activity accelerates. Combined monthly volume across Polymarket and Kalshi rose from under $5 billion in September 2025 to around $24 billion by April 2026.
Polymarket’s international volume peaked at $10.5 billion in March before easing to $7.1 billion in May. Meanwhile, growth in U.S. participation has intensified, with the platform reporting an 86% increase in new American users in the 30 days leading up to early June.
Transparency and strategy insights expand
Arkham’s system introduces a more transparent view into trader behavior. Users can now analyze both open and closed positions of top-ranked accounts, offering insight into how consistent accuracy is achieved over time.
This added visibility allows market participants to study patterns and strategies, potentially raising overall competition and efficiency in prediction markets.
Major firms push deeper into prediction markets
The launch coincides with growing involvement from major technology and financial firms building their own prediction platforms.
DraftKings has introduced its proprietary exchange, DKeX, after acquiring Railbird Technologies, aiming to internalize its event contract operations. Robinhood has also migrated its highest-volume contracts to its in-house platform, Rothera, developed with Susquehanna.
Meta is reportedly developing a standalone prediction app called Arena under the direction of Mark Zuckerberg. The initial version is expected to use a points-based system rather than real-money trading, though news of the project has already pressured competing firms’ stock prices.
Vertical integration reshapes the competitive landscape
The broader trend points toward vertical integration, with companies leveraging existing user bases to build their own trading infrastructure.
Analysts at Bernstein say this shift allows firms such as Coinbase, which acquired The Clearing Company, to retain revenue that previously flowed to third-party platforms. The move signals a more consolidated and competitive phase for prediction markets as participation and capital continue to expand.
Want deeper performance metrics beyond PnL? Explore Toobit’s advanced markets rankings to benchmark traders by data-driven accuracy and consistency.
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