Anthropic’s valuation has come under scrutiny after a sharp market repricing of Chinese AI firm Zhipu, which recently reached a market capitalization of one trillion Hong Kong dollars. Analysts are now applying multiple frameworks to estimate Anthropic’s value, producing a wide range from roughly 820 billion to as high as 10 trillion U.S. dollars.
The divergence reflects uncertainty around how to price fast-growing AI companies with limited profitability but strong revenue expansion and strategic positioning.
Zhipu comparison drives extreme upside scenarios
Zhipu’s leadership has said its commercialization strategy mirrors Anthropic’s, prompting analysts to use its valuation as a benchmark. Financial disclosures show Zhipu expects 2025 revenue of about 724 million yuan, up 131.9% year on year, while posting an adjusted net loss of 3.18 billion yuan.
Despite weak profitability, Zhipu’s stock trades at several hundred times revenue. Applying a similar multiple to Anthropic—whose annualized revenue is estimated between 30 billion and 47 billion dollars—would imply a valuation exceeding 10 trillion dollars. This figure stands far above private market estimates, including Anthropic’s recent 6.5 billion dollar funding round, which valued the company at about 965 billion dollars.
On-chain pricing suggests 1.7 trillion dollar valuation
A second benchmark comes from blockchain-based pre-IPO contracts. On-chain data indicates a notional share count of one billion, with tokens priced around 1,718 dollars as of June 22. This implies a market capitalization near 1.72 trillion dollars.
However, daily trading volume is only about 1 million dollars, pointing to extremely limited liquidity. As a result, the implied valuation may not reflect a true market-clearing price.
Revenue multiples offer more grounded estimates
A third approach uses annual recurring revenue. Projections for late 2026 place combined ARR for Anthropic and OpenAI between 140 billion and 200 billion dollars. If Anthropic maintains a 59% share, its ARR would range from 82 billion to 118 billion dollars.
Applying revenue multiples of 10 to 20 times results in a valuation range between 820 billion and 2.36 trillion dollars. These estimates assume continued revenue growth, declining inference costs, and improving margins.
Valuation gaps highlight uncertainty
Each valuation method comes with limitations. Zhipu’s pricing reflects speculative premiums and scarcity value, while on-chain pre-IPO markets remain thinly traded. ARR-based models depend heavily on assumptions about cost reductions and sustained enterprise demand.
The result is a market grappling with how to price AI companies. Even among analysts, the range of possible outcomes remains unusually wide.
Market dynamics driven by narrative and capital flows
The contrast is stark when compared with public markets, where AI-focused companies trade at a median of 11.1 times forward revenue. This gap underscores how private and emerging markets are factoring in long-term potential over present fundamentals.
Tokenized pre-IPO instruments add another layer of complexity. While they offer exposure to high-profile firms, they do not represent actual equity and are highly sensitive to small capital flows due to low liquidity.
At the same time, capital continues to pour into the sector. Global venture funding for AI reached 258.7 billion dollars in 2025, accounting for 61% of total venture investment. Early 2026 data shows a large share of that capital concentrated in a handful of major deals.
Outlook depends on AI adoption and cost dynamics
Anthropic’s future valuation will depend on whether AI adoption continues to accelerate, costs decline, and applications such as autonomous agents and coding tools generate durable revenue.
If those conditions hold, a valuation near one trillion dollars could be sustained. If growth slows or profitability remains elusive, downward revaluation becomes more likely.
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