21Shares has projected a baseline price of $100,000 for Bitcoin by the end of 2026, according to its mid-year market assessment. The forecast follows Bitcoin’s previous peak near $126,000 in October 2025.
Bitcoin was trading around $62,300, up 0.3% over 24 hours and roughly half its prior peak. The report noted that the current pullback remains modest compared with past cycles, where declines exceeded 80%.
Market stability emerges despite pullback
Bitcoin continues to trade above its average holder cost basis of about $54,000, suggesting relatively stable positioning. Lower volatility and more measured capital flows point to a more mature correction phase.
However, short-term holders who entered within the last 155 days have a higher cost basis near $74,800. This level may act as resistance as these traders look to exit at breakeven.
Etp flows reflect repricing, not exit
Crypto ETP assets under management stood near $140 billion as of May, down about 15% this year. Holdings fell to roughly 1.25 million BTC, around 8% below earlier highs.
The decline appears driven more by price adjustments than large withdrawals. Allocations remain near cycle highs despite nearly $3 billion in net outflows from U.S.-listed spot Bitcoin funds. Short-term sentiment has been pressured by heavier recent withdrawals, including $6 billion over the past month and daily outflows exceeding $114 million on June 23.
New products and prediction markets expand
ETP growth continues with new offerings tied to decentralized derivatives platforms, attracting about $150 million within their first month.
Prediction markets have also gained traction, reaching $57.5 billion in trading volume by May. Annual volumes could approach $100 billion and potentially climb to $200 billion, driven by major global events later this year.
Defi stalls as security concerns mount
Total value locked in DeFi remained near $140 billion, flat for the year and well below earlier expectations of $300 billion. Security breaches have played a major role, with losses nearing $942 million in 2026.
Major exploits, including incidents involving Drift Protocol and KelpDAO, have reduced risk appetite and slowed capital inflows into the sector.
Ethereum layer 2 consolidation intensifies
Activity across Ethereum Layer 2 networks is increasingly concentrated. Base, Arbitrum, and Optimism account for roughly 83% of DeFi assets and nearly 90% of transactions on these scaling platforms.
This concentration signals a winner-takes-most dynamic, with liquidity and development focusing on a small number of dominant networks.
Tokenization grows led by U.S. treasurys
Tokenized assets on public blockchains reached about $31 billion. Of that, $15 billion is tied to tokenized U.S. Treasurys, reflecting rising demand for stable, yield-generating on-chain instruments.
Meanwhile, institutional permissioned networks hold around $350 billion in mirrored assets, highlighting continued expansion beyond public blockchain ecosystems.
For deeper insight into BTC’s path to six figures, read BTCS Road to $100K now.
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