2026 World Cup boosts prediction markets volume

Analysts expect the 2026 FIFA World Cup, which begins across North America today, to become the largest single catalyst in the history of prediction markets, with billions of dollars in new trading activity projected over the coming weeks.

World Cup set to drive record prediction market activity

Bernstein estimates the tournament will generate more than $3 billion in additional handle and between $5 billion and $10 billion in incremental consumer trading volume. The firm also forecasts total industry turnover will reach $240 billion in 2026, on track toward $1 trillion annually by 2030.

Prediction markets allow users to trade contracts linked to real-world outcomes, including sports, politics, and economic data. Prices reflect implied probabilities, turning sentiment into a tradable asset. The sector expanded rapidly during the 2024 U.S. election and has since broadened into a wider information-driven trading ecosystem.

This year’s World Cup, featuring 48 teams and 104 matches, offers roughly 60% more events than previous tournaments, creating a dense schedule of trading opportunities during a typically quieter period for online wagering.

Platforms compete for expanding user base

DraftKings is expected to capture a large share of this growth. Its regulated prediction platform operates in several U.S. states where traditional sportsbooks face restrictions. Bernstein estimates the company could add up to 650,000 new funded accounts during the tournament, bringing its total user base to around two million by the end of 2026.

The company is also targeting Hispanic audiences through a partnership with Telemundo and a Spanish-language interface. This demographic makes up roughly 52% of the population in key states like California, Texas, and Florida but remains underrepresented in online sports trading activity.

Robinhood is entering the tournament with a newly launched in-house exchange and clearing system developed alongside Susquehanna. This structure allows it to lower fees and capture more revenue internally. Analysts expect prediction markets to become Robinhood’s largest new revenue driver in 2026.

Trading activity on Robinhood has already surged, with 12 billion event contracts traded in 2025 and 16 billion cleared by May 2026. In the first quarter alone, prediction market activity generated revenue at an annualized pace of $415 million, which could rise to $586 million by year-end.

Coinbase has moved even faster into the space, surpassing $100 million in annualized prediction market revenue just two months after launching event-based contracts through a partnership with Kalshi. The World Cup represents a key moment in its strategy to evolve into a broader “everything exchange” beyond cryptocurrency trading.

Combined, Robinhood and Coinbase reach more than 20 million monthly active users, giving both platforms significant exposure to tournament-driven activity.

Industry growth accelerates as competition intensifies

Across the sector, total trading volume reached $31.2 billion in May, marking a 5% monthly increase. Kalshi led the market with a 57% share and $17.9 billion in volume, while Polymarket recorded a 14.8% decline to $7.1 billion.

Bernstein projects total industry revenue will grow from around $400 million in 2025 to $2.5 billion in 2026, eventually reaching $10.8 billion by 2030. Sports are expected to serve as the entry point for broader adoption of real-time, data-driven event trading.

Crypto market faces pressure despite rising activity

The surge in platform engagement comes amid a difficult backdrop for digital assets. Bitcoin has fallen below $63,000, briefly touching $61,165, representing a decline of about 30% since the start of the year.

Institutional demand has weakened significantly. Spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $4.4 billion in net outflows over a 13-day period in late May and early June. On-chain data shows total demand for Bitcoin has dropped by 652,000 BTC, the sharpest contraction since January 2022. The Coinbase Premium index has also turned negative, signaling reduced U.S. institutional buying.

Ethereum has experienced an even steeper decline, falling below $2,000 to trade near $1,700. The asset is down more than 30% year-to-date and roughly 65% from its all-time high.

Macro pressures cloud outlook for risk assets

Broader economic conditions continue to weigh on markets. Inflation remains elevated at 4.2%, limiting the likelihood of monetary easing in 2026. Attention is now focused on the Federal Reserve’s June 16–17 meeting, where rate cuts are seen as unlikely and the possibility of further tightening remains on the table.

At the same time, new financial products are emerging to manage risk. CME Group has introduced Bitcoin Volatility Index futures, offering traders a regulated way to hedge exposure without directly trading price movements.

Key test for market engagement

The World Cup is shaping up as a large-scale test of whether event-driven trading can pull in new capital and encourage broader participation across platforms. A central question is whether new users will expand into other assets or remain focused solely on tournament-related contracts.

The answer could help determine whether prediction markets evolve into a dominant segment of digital trading or remain a niche tied to major global events.