July 1 closed Bitcoin's worst first half since 2022. Per Coinglass data cited by CoinDesk, BTC fell 22.2 percent in the first quarter and 14.1 percent in the second, leaving the year down roughly 30 percent from its January open near 87,500 and about 53 percent below the October 2025 record of 126,198. Two losing quarters to open a year has happened only in 2018 and 2022, and in both cases the second half brought no rescue.
The session compressed that tension into one day. Month-end selling pushed BTC to a fresh 2026 low of 57,735 early on July 1 in Asia hours, per Bitstamp data, the lowest since September 2024. A surge in spot buying around 8:50 am Eastern then drove it back through 60,000 to an intraday high of 60,475, up close to 3 percent on the day, lifting total crypto market value about 2.4 percent to 2.15 trillion per Bitcoin.com News.
Sentiment has not followed. The Fear and Greed Index sat at 11, deep in Extreme Fear, and Glassnode shows more BTC held at a loss than at a profit, 10.83 million versus 9.22 million coins. The same report notes long term holders have flipped back to net accumulation, so the deepest pockets are buying the weakness even as the regulated channel keeps selling.
The level map
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57,700 to 57,800: the fresh yearly low, the line that decides whether July 1 was a bottom test or a preview
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56,600 to 56,900: the channel floor desks flag next, with 55,000 the shelf below
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60,000: the reclaimed pivot, where dealer gamma per Glassnode may dampen near term volatility
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62,000 to 62,500: the 20 day average band, the first level that changes the structure
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63,000 to 66,000: the short liquidation cluster, roughly 2.6 billion at risk on a squeeze toward 66,000
ETF flows: a record outflow month closes the quarter
June was the worst flow month on record. SoSoValue data cited by Cointelegraph puts June net outflows from US spot Bitcoin ETFs at about 4.5 billion dollars, above the prior record of 3.56 billion from February 2025, pushing 2026 year to date flows to roughly negative 5.5 billion. BlackRock's IBIT accounted for about 3.55 billion of the June selling, near 79 percent, per Farside Investors.
The daily tape has not turned. On June 30, per SoSoValue via ChainCatcher, the complex printed a 223 million net outflow, the ninth straight negative session, with IBIT redeeming 212 million. Total net assets stand near 70.95 billion, about 6.02 percent of Bitcoin's market value, with cumulative net inflows since launch cut to about 51.15 billion.
Two offsets are worth logging. XRP linked funds took in 59.4 million in June, a third straight positive month, and HYPE funds added 161 million, per SoSoValue data cited by CoinDesk, so the redemption wave is concentrated in BTC and ETH rather than uniform. July seasonality also leans friendly, with FxPro's Alex Kuptsikevich noting Bitcoin has closed July higher in ten of the past fifteen years, though the same desk flags 40,000 as the next structural support if the floor fails.
Derivatives: deleveraged but thin
The quarter ended with leverage cleared and liquidity degraded at once. Talos puts combined BTC and ETH long liquidations at 8.35 billion for Q2, with Bitcoin open interest down 32 percent from its peak to 33.5 billion and Ether down 40 percent to 16.2 billion. Bitcoin's 2 percent order book depth fell to roughly 35 to 40 million in late June from about 70 million in early May, and spot volume dropped 28 percent quarter on quarter.
July 1 showed both sides of that setup. Roughly 245 to 363 million was liquidated over 24 hours depending on the tracker, per CryptoRank and AInvest, longs in the overnight flush and shorts in the US morning rebound. BTC perpetual funding has turned negative near minus 2 percent annualized, per KuCoin, a skew that makes the 63,000 to 66,000 short cluster the fuel for any sustained reclaim. Less leverage lowers cascade risk, but thinner books mean spot demand has to carry more in a seasonally weak quarter.
Ethereum: record staking under a heavy chart
Ether closed the first half deeper underwater than Bitcoin. It fell more than 20 percent in June, traded down toward 1,530 to 1,570 into the close, and rebounded about 3 percent to around 1,615 to 1,620 on July 1, per CoinCodex and CoinDesk. It remains below every major moving average, and Coindoo notes the price sits almost exactly on a trendline that has held since mid 2022.
The flow channel is the weak side. Spot Ether ETFs have posted eight straight weeks of net outflows, with June totaling about 529 million per SoSoValue data cited by CoinDesk, and June 30 marked a ninth consecutive daily outflow at 27.6 million, all from BlackRock's ETHA, per ChainCatcher. Invezz adds that roughly 345 million has left the products since June 17, outweighing the 182 million of ETH bought by treasury firms BitMine and SharpLink over the same stretch. Network fees fell to 10.7 million in June from 24.4 million in April.
Supply remains the constructive side. The staking rate reached a record near 33 percent of supply per AInvest, exchange reserves sit at multi year lows, and the Ethereum Foundation staked 4,938 ETH through Lido on July 1, per Onchain Lens data cited by KuCoin. The map: 1,560 is the demand zone that held, ChainCatcher flags about 619 million in long liquidations below 1,515, and 1,600 to 1,650 must be reclaimed before the chart improves.
Altcoins: XRP and HYPE hold the flows, Solana holds the tape
The backdrop stayed weak, with CryptoQuant data cited by Crypto Economy showing over 84 percent of altcoins below their 200 day average, the longest such downtrend since 2022. Within that, the same narrow set of names kept working.
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Solana was the strongest major, near 74.50 in Asia and about 77.60 in the US rally, up around 5.5 percent on the day. TradingKey credits spot Solana ETFs holding over a billion dollars with built in staking yield, record tokenized equity volumes, fresh USDC minting on the network, and Upexi's plan to stake more than two million SOL.
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XRP held the 1.00 to 1.06 area after its leverage flush, with open interest down from about 1.3 billion to under 150 million and daily active addresses up roughly 72 percent in two weeks, per CoinDesk.
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HYPE traded near 63 to 66 after rebounding off its 50 day average. Hyperliquid generated over 80 million in fees in 30 days, third among all protocols behind only Tether and Circle, per DefiLlama data cited by CoinDesk.
One footnote drew attention: analyst Ali Martinez flagged simultaneous monthly TD Sequential buy signals on BTC, ETH, XRP and SOL at the June close, a pattern that has historically clustered near major lows, per CaptainAltcoin. It is an exhaustion read, not a confirmed turn.
Macro: record equities meet a hawkish Warsh, jobs land Thursday
The contrast with traditional markets is the sharpest in years. The S&P 500 closed June 30 at a record 7,499.36, capping a 14.9 percent quarter, its best since Q2 2020, with the Nasdaq up about 20 percent. On July 1 the index eased about 0.2 percent to near 7,480, per CNBC. Bitcoin fell roughly 14 percent over the same quarter those indexes surged, a decoupling several desks now treat as the defining feature of this market.
The data and the Fed pulled in opposite directions. ADP reported June private payrolls up just 98,000 against a 118,000 consensus, and the ISM manufacturing index missed at 53.3. Yet Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, at the ECB's Sintra forum, said policymakers have concluded prices are too high, called the 2 percent commitment strong, unanimous and unambiguous, and again declined forward guidance. Markets hold roughly a one in three chance of a July hike and fully price one hike by year end, per Capital Street FX and ADM Investor Services.
That kept the dollar index near 101.1 to 101.4 and the 10 year Treasury around 4.47 to 4.50 percent despite the soft data. Gold rebounded toward 4,100 after breaking below its 200 day average for the first time in almost three years, and WTI slid to just under 69 dollars, its lowest since February 27, the day before the war began. The pivotal print is Thursday: the June jobs report lands July 2, moved a day early for the holiday, with consensus near 110,000 jobs and 4.3 percent unemployment. A hot number would harden the hike path that has pressured crypto since the June dot plot.
Geopolitics: the deal held, the implementation is contested
The June 17 memorandum ended the war but did not settle the strait. The US and Iran held indirect technical talks in Doha on June 30 and July 1, mediated by Qatar and Pakistan, focused on Hormuz shipping and frozen funds, with Iran seeking 6 billion dollars as a first tranche, per Reuters and Al Jazeera. Iran declined to meet US envoys directly, and the talks followed tit for tat strikes last weekend after an Iranian attack on a cargo ship. Trump said denuclearization is moving along well, though sources told Reuters the nuclear file was not discussed.
The harder problem is control of the waterway. Two senior Iranian sources told Reuters that Tehran intends to win recognition of its control over Hormuz and will begin charging tolls in mid August when the 60 day free passage window expires, against Washington's reading of the deal. Traffic has partially resumed but remains, per Vanda Insights' Vandana Hari, patchy, unpredictable and not fully transparent. Oil at prewar lows says the market believes the peace holds; the toll dispute is the residual risk.
Treasury and industry: Strategy authorizes selling, a structural first
The week's most consequential corporate item came from Strategy on June 29. Per CoinDesk and The Defiant, the company announced a Digital Credit Capital Framework including a BTC Monetization Program authorizing up to 1.25 billion dollars of Bitcoin sales to fund its USD reserve, dividends and buybacks, plus 1 billion each for preferred and MSTR repurchases, and raised the STRC dividend to 12 percent from July 1. Holdings stand at 847,363 BTC at an average cost near 75,651, with a 2.55 billion USD reserve as of June 28.
The context is the loss of the flywheel. Strategy bought only about 3,600 BTC in June versus roughly 25,000 in May and over 50,000 in April, per Talos, as MSTR's premium compressed near 1x and both MSTR and STRC touched 52 week lows. Authorization is not sale, and Benchmark notes the cash reserve comes first, but the never sell posture is formally over, and the market now has a defined path by which the largest corporate holder could become a supplier.
Elsewhere, SpaceX stabilized near 170 by June 30 after sliding from its 225.64 post IPO high, and Blockchain.News reports its synthetic SPCX perpetual is now Binance's third largest pair behind BTC and ETH. On regulation, about 92 crypto ETF applications sit with the SEC, led by Solana and XRP filings, after June's approval of T. Rowe Price's multi asset active crypto ETF. At the World Cup, England beat DR Congo 2 to 1 on a Harry Kane double to close the round of 32, setting up a last 16 tie with Mexico, with Kraken continuing as the tournament's first official crypto exchange sponsor.
Alpha watch
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The 57,735 low is the reference. A hold on retest confirms a floor; a break opens 56,600 and 55,000, with FxPro flagging 40,000 as the structural level below.
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ETF flows outrank the chart. Nine straight outflow days say the 60,000 reclaim is not yet funded; the first multi day positive stretch with breadth is the signal that matters.
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Thursday's jobs report is the macro gate. With one hike fully priced, a hot print pressures the floor and a miss relieves it, in a holiday thinned tape.
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Strategy's monetization program changes the treasury math. Watch whether any 8-K discloses actual BTC sales rather than authorization.
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The mid August Hormuz toll deadline is the new geopolitical clock. Oil at prewar lows assumes implementation; toll enforcement or renewed strikes would reprice it.
Bottom line
July 1 closed a first half that repriced the cycle. Bitcoin fell about 30 percent over two losing quarters, a start seen only in 2018 and 2022, the ETF complex swung from 18.7 billion of Q1 inflows to a record 4.5 billion June outflow, and equities set records while crypto made yearly lows. The overnight flush to 57,735 and the reclaim of 60,000 was a fitting close: forced selling into thin books, then real spot demand at the low.
The constructive pieces are structural rather than immediate. Long term holders are accumulating, leverage is cleared, ETH staking is at records, XRP and HYPE show the fund channel is selective rather than closed, and July seasonality leans positive. Against that, the ETF bid is absent, funding is negative, books are thin, Warsh is holding the hawkish line, and the largest corporate holder just authorized its first framework for selling.
The test for early Q3 is narrow. If 57,700 holds, outflows slow, and the jobs report does not pull the hike path forward, the short cluster up to 66,000 gives the market fuel for a squeeze. If the floor breaks with flows still negative, 56,600 and 55,000 come into the map, and the 2018 and 2022 analog stops being a footnote. The market enters Q3 deleveraged, cheap against its own history, and entirely dependent on demand showing up.
One more note from the industry side. Toobit has just been named Best Crypto Exchange for Day Trading at the CoinGape Awards, a nod to its execution speed, liquidity depth and fee structure in a market where intraday traders are doing most of the volume. The live announcement is available on X - here is the link to view it: https://x.com/i/broadcasts/1qxoNNrdNvAJv
