When will gas prices go down? EIA's 2027 outlook

The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) expects regular gasoline to get cheaper this winter, then rise again in spring. U.S. regular gas averaged $3.995 a gallon on November 9, down 15.8 cents from the week before. The agency puts the first-quarter 2027 average at $3.69 a gallon.

• Spring and summer. The EIA projects a return to around $4 in spring, with prices staying near that level in summer.

• Late 2027. The lowest projected quarterly average is $3.33 a gallon in the final three months of the year.

• Full-year average. The EIA projects $3.73 for 2027, down 16 cents from its 2026 estimate and up 17 cents from its October forecast for 2027.

Weekly U.S. regular gasoline prices from the U.S. Energy Information Administration, as of November 9, 2026.

The November drop was the seventh consecutive weekly decline after the September 21 reading of $4.478, the highest in the 12-week period starting August 24. By November 9, regular gasoline had shed 48.3 cents a gallon from that point. There was still a substantial gap from the comparable Monday a year earlier, when the national average was $3.056. The 2025 comparison puts the recent relief in perspective. At the national average, a 15-gallon fill-up cost around $7 less than at the September high and around $14 more than in the comparable week of 2025.

The weekly survey measures national, volume-weighted prices for regular gasoline, including taxes. The EIA released the November 9 observation on November 10. The petroleum supply figures cover the week ending October 30.

The EIA’s gasoline price forecast by quarter

U.S. regular gasoline in dollars per gallon from the October and November 2026 Short-Term Energy Outlooks, Table 2. The November Q4 2026 figure combines October data with projections for November and December.

The November report puts the second quarter 30 cents above the first. The timing of the revisions matters for anyone whose fuel purchases vary by season.

• Winter forecast improved. The EIA cut its first-quarter forecast by 2 cents between editions while raising the full-year figure.

• Summer outlook reversed. In October, the EIA put third-quarter gasoline below the first-quarter average. The November outlook puts it 22 cents above. Someone who buys more fuel in summer now faces higher expected prices during the period they use the most.

• Most relief comes late in 2027. The fourth quarter remains the lowest in the November outlook, even after the EIA raised its projection by 9 cents.

Why spring prices can rise as supply improves

Seasonality helps explain why pump prices can ease in winter and firm up in spring. Driving patterns change over the year, and markets that switch to summer gasoline blends face different production costs and supply requirements. Those changes can raise the cost of replacing gasoline at terminals even before peak summer travel. The quarterly figures also reflect the EIA’s assumptions about crude and refined-product supply, so an ordinary seasonal pattern can play out against an unusually expensive market.

The EIA expects the biggest disruptions to global product supply early in 2027, with constraints easing afterward. Refinery and shipping conditions can improve while the seasonal market for gasoline gets more expensive. That helps explain why an improvement in global product supply and a spring rise at U.S. pumps can appear in the same forecast. Retail relief depends on whether the supply improvement is large enough to offset that seasonal pressure.

What the national average means at a local pump

The November 9 reading below $4 already falls within the October-to-December quarter. The national average can come in at $4.06 for the quarter while individual weeks are cheaper. October prices were higher, and later observations can still move the average. The winter outlook is a guide to direction over several months. Local weekly prices offer a closer reference for the next fill-up.

Geography matters even when national prices are moving in one direction. A region that can draw from several refineries or terminals has more ways to replace supply when a plant is down. A market with fewer suppliers or a locally required blend has a narrower set of options. A nationwide drop in crude costs can reach the two markets at different speeds. Taxes and competition between stations can also leave local prices apart after the wholesale market settles.

How the 2027 gasoline forecast changed

The EIA lowered its estimate for 2026 and raised its forecast for 2027 in the same report. The revision to 2026 lowers the starting point. The higher forecast for 2027 leaves less room for a year-to-year drop.

U.S. dollars per gallon, including taxes, from the October and November 2026 editions of the EIA’s Short-Term Energy Outlook, Table 2.

The October outlook implied a 35-cent drop per gallon from 2026 to 2027. The November outlook cut that projected drop to 16 cents. Most of the 19-cent difference came from the higher forecast for 2027. The rest came from the 2-cent reduction in the starting point.

The 2026 estimate combines observed months with projections for the rest of the year. The 2027 figure projects a full calendar year. Those assumptions have longer to change, especially if wholesale fuel supply recovers sooner than the EIA expects or crude prices follow a different path.

The annual average works best for someone whose purchases are spread across the year. A driver planning a trip in spring or summer is more exposed to the quarters that received the largest upward revisions.

How crude and refining affect pump prices

The November outlook puts average Brent crude at $97.44 a barrel in 2026 and $85.78 in 2027. The 2027 figure is lower than the agency’s estimate for 2026, yet the November report raised both years’ Brent forecasts compared with October. The same distinction applies to West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the other crude benchmark in the outlook. The agency now expects the 2027 average at $80.54 a barrel, up from $79.74 in October. A softer crude market across the two years can still leave refiners facing higher feedstock costs than the previous forecast assumed.

From crude oil to the retail pump

A drop in Brent can lower one part of the bill while other costs remain elevated. The path from crude to the pump has three stages that help explain the difference.

• Crude purchases. A refinery’s actual purchase cost depends on the grade of oil, where the plant can take delivery, and the terms of its contracts.

• Refining and wholesale. A plant turns crude into several products, including gasoline and diesel. Each product has its own market. An interruption can raise the wholesale price of a finished fuel even while crude costs ease.

• Distribution and retail. Gasoline moves through pipelines or other transport, through terminals where it can be stored or blended, and into the retail network. Local distribution costs and taxes form part of the posted price.

The difference between wholesale product prices and the cost of the crude used to make them is called a crack spread. The comparison often uses a basket of refined products because a refinery produces more than gasoline. The spread measures the gross relationship between the value of those products and the cost of the feedstock. The plant still has to pay for labor, energy, maintenance, and other expenses. A wider spread can make running a refinery more attractive while wholesale buyers still face expensive gasoline.

A spread can also narrow for two very different reasons. Gasoline can become cheaper as supply improves, or crude can become more expensive while the wholesale fuel price holds steady. Both changes shrink the gap. Only the first gives a distributor immediate relief on the next gasoline purchase. The direction of the two prices matters as much as the change in the gap.

Why refinery constraints can keep gasoline expensive

Crude exports and refined fuel shipments can recover at different speeds. The EIA attributes elevated product spreads to damage at refineries in the Middle East and Russia, which reduced the volume of refined fuel available for export. A buyer competing for finished fuel can pay more even when crude is easier to obtain. For U.S. prices, the effect can travel through the market for imported and exported products. A distributor looking for another cargo has to compete for available gasoline and pay to move it. The November report expects product spreads to stay elevated through most of 2027.

The agency also projects U.S. refineries will process 16.5 million barrels of crude a day in 2027, down from an estimated 16.7 million in 2026, even as utilization stays around the same. Utilization is the share of operable capacity in use. When the capacity base is smaller, running at the same percentage can still mean processing fewer barrels. A smaller system also has fewer spare barrels of capacity at any given utilization rate. What happens to gasoline supply then depends on the plants’ product mix and on what distributors can bring in from other markets.

These assumptions can coexist with the recent drop at the pump. The weekly survey captures what customers paid on a specific date. The EIA’s refining analysis explains why the agency expects fuel to stay relatively expensive compared with its earlier forecast. The October 30 U.S. supply data can test how much domestic stocks and refinery operations support that picture. To explain the 15.8-cent weekly decline itself, a separate comparison would need wholesale gasoline and crude prices over the same period, along with information on local deliveries. The outlook uses annual averages, and the U.S. supply figures end before the retail observation.

What U.S. gasoline inventories and refinery runs show

U.S. gasoline stocks and refinery utilization from the U.S. Energy Information Administration, as of October 30, 2026.

The October 30 figures show a U.S. market with stronger refinery operations and a thinner-than-usual inventory cushion. Those conditions can coexist when imports fall, exports rise, or gasoline stocks were already low heading into the week.

• Inventories. Gasoline stocks fell by 222,000 barrels to 208.958 million barrels. The EIA put the level around 2% below its five-year seasonal average. Stocks were still almost 3 million barrels higher than in the comparable week of 2025, and above the 204.4 million recorded on September 25. The total includes both finished gasoline and blending components.

• Refinery operations. Utilization rose from 92.8% to 94.5%. Crude inputs increased from around 16.53 million to 16.73 million barrels a day. Adjusted finished-gasoline production from refiners and blenders rose from around 9.24 million to 9.70 million barrels a day. Stronger output helped supply in that week. A sustained increase would matter more for the market heading into spring.

• Trade. Total gasoline imports declined from 399,000 to 351,000 barrels a day, while exports rose from 845,000 to just over 1 million. Both moves can offset some of the benefit from higher domestic production. The trade series covers a broader gasoline category than the adjusted finished-gasoline production series.

Shipment timing can move the export and inventory numbers even if drivers buy about the same amount of fuel. A cargo loaded late in a reporting week can affect both measures. Several weeks of declining stocks while refineries run hard would offer stronger evidence that additional production is failing to rebuild the buffer.

Demand offers another check. The four-week average of gasoline product supplied was 8.639 million barrels a day, close to 8.677 million in the comparable period a year earlier. Product supplied estimates how much fuel leaves the primary supply system and serves as a proxy for demand. The near-flat comparison offers little evidence of a sharp drop. With the demand proxy close to its year-earlier level, a sustained rise in output and a larger inventory cushion would give stronger support to faster retail relief.

What the forecast means for fuel budgets

Consider a driver buying 500 gallons of regular gasoline per year, with the same vehicle, mileage, and purchasing pattern. Applying each annual average to that volume produces three different budget figures.

Illustrative costs calculated from the EIA’s published national annual averages and a fixed 500-gallon assumption.

• Compared with 2026. The November outlook implies $80 less in 2027 at the same fuel volume.

• Compared with October’s 2027 forecast. The same 2027 budget now needs $85 more.

• Compared with the earlier year-to-year savings. The expected reduction fell from $175 to $80, a difference of $95. That calculation reflects revisions to both years’ prices.

A buyer can therefore plan for lower spending next year and still need more cash than the previous forecast suggested. The $85 figure is the one that matters when revising the 2027 budget alone.

Actual fuel bills depend on how much a buyer uses and when the purchases happen. A commuter with steady mileage may find the annual comparison useful. A business whose gasoline-powered vehicles run more in spring and summer has more reason to pay attention to the quarterly revisions. The same annual gallons can produce a different bill if more purchases fall in the quarters with higher prices. Dividing a full-year estimate into equal monthly amounts can understate the cash a seasonal business needs during its busiest months.

The example also holds fuel consumption fixed. A lower bill can come from buying fewer gallons, paying less for the same amount, or both. Drivers who change vehicles or cut mileage between years would see that change alongside any price relief. A business comparing budgets can keep those effects separate by applying the two price assumptions to the same expected fuel use first.

A business that runs diesel vehicles needs the outlook for diesel and its own purchasing terms. Even among gasoline buyers, the timing of a contract, a regional price difference, or a change in routes can matter more to costs than a small move in the national average.

How cheaper gasoline affects inflation

Gasoline can get cheaper from one week to the next while remaining more expensive than it was a year earlier. A household feels the first change at the pump. The second matters when comparing prices over a longer period.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics includes gasoline in the headline Consumer Price Index (CPI). Analysts often use core inflation to track changes in prices outside food and energy. A gasoline decline can pull down headline CPI relative to where it would otherwise be. The effect on core CPI would be indirect, such as a business changing what it charges after its fuel costs have shifted. How much a business passes through depends on its own costs, contracts, and competition.

The EIA survey and the CPI also have different purposes. The weekly survey tracks regular gasoline at outlets around the country. Headline CPI measures price changes across a broad basket of goods and services. The retail series can help explain the direction of pressure from gasoline. Measuring its contribution to a particular inflation release requires the actual gasoline index, the relevant period, and the weight used in that release. A one-week pump-price decline offers only part of that evidence. A monthly headline reading also reflects what happened to prices elsewhere in the basket. Fuel savings can improve a driver’s budget during a month when the overall index still rises.

Gasoline price outlook

The November outlook gives drivers a plausible window for relief this winter, followed by firmer prices during spring and summer. How far the relief goes will depend on whether cheaper crude is accompanied by more gasoline reaching wholesale buyers.

OILWTIUSDT perpetual from Toobit, as of November 12, 2026, around 09:26 UTC. 

A sustained fall in WTI would strengthen the cheaper-crude part of the outlook. Relief reaches drivers when lower wholesale gasoline costs work through terminals and local stations. If crude weakens while product premiums stay wide, retailers can still face expensive replacement gasoline. The oil contract and the gasoline supply figures therefore answer different parts of the question about future pump prices.

Base case with winter relief

In the EIA’s baseline, gasoline gets cheaper into early 2027 and becomes more expensive in spring. Crude costs ease across the year while product spreads stay elevated through much of it. Modest improvements in domestic supply would fit that path. So would an inventory cushion that stays thin enough for seasonal demand to lift wholesale prices again.

• Confirmation. Several lower weekly retail readings during winter, followed by firmer wholesale prices as the market prepares for spring.

Faster relief if product supply improves

A faster decline becomes more plausible when refiners sustain stronger output and distributors can buy replacement fuel more cheaply.

• Confirmation. Gasoline stocks rebuild over several weeks relative to their seasonal norm, and wholesale gasoline gets cheaper while crude stays stable or falls.

• What would weaken the case. An inventory build that leaves wholesale prices elevated. Buyers would still face high replacement costs.

Persistent pressure if the supply cushion thins

A run of refinery outages, weaker product imports, or stronger seasonal demand could leave distributors paying more for replacement fuel. A rebound in crude would add pressure even if refiners were running well.

• Confirmation. Stocks keep falling relative to their seasonal norm and wholesale gasoline rises relative to crude.

• What would weaken the case. Inventories recover for several weeks while wholesale gasoline gets cheaper.

Seasonal fuel changes, demand, and regional supply can move local pump prices even while the national forecast is on track. The EIA’s next outlook, scheduled for December 8, will update the agency’s assumptions about product constraints in 2027. In the meantime, weekly gasoline stocks and refinery runs provide an earlier check on domestic supply. At the national level, sustained inventory gains and narrower wholesale premiums, alongside stable or falling crude, would give the clearest reason to expect more relief than the November forecast allows.

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