SpaceX’s planned public offering is drawing intense scrutiny after setting an initial price of $135 per share, implying a valuation of about $1.77 trillion and targeting roughly $75 billion in new capital. If completed at that level, it would become the largest IPO on record while potentially increasing Elon Musk’s net worth by more than $220 billion.
Demand appears strong despite the debate, with subscription data indicating the offering is oversubscribed by around four times. Still, analysts remain sharply divided on whether the valuation reflects realistic growth or excessive optimism.
Wide gap in valuation estimates
Bullish forecasts center on SpaceX’s future revenue potential across satellite internet, launch services, and artificial intelligence. Goldman Sachs projects revenue could reach $1.6 trillion by 2028 and $4.7 trillion by 2030, with a significant share tied to AI operations. Morgan Stanley offers a similar 2028 estimate and sees revenue climbing to $3.4 trillion by 2040, with adjusted EBITDA exceeding $2.7 trillion.
ARK Invest expects enterprise value could hit $2.5 trillion by 2030, with scenarios ranging from $1.7 trillion to $3.1 trillion depending on execution.
In contrast, more conservative firms argue the IPO price stretches beyond fundamentals. Morningstar places fair value near $780 billion, less than half of the proposed level, citing discounted cash flow analysis and what it calls an outsized “Musk premium.” PitchBook estimates a range between $1.1 trillion and $1.7 trillion, suggesting the offer price sits near the upper limit. Trefis assigns a target closer to $79 per share.
New Constructs takes an even more skeptical stance, arguing the valuation would require annual revenue growth of roughly 50% through 2035—an unprecedented rate among publicly listed U.S. firms.
Starlink and vertical integration in focus
Independent research firm Sacra estimates SpaceX generated about $18.7 billion in revenue in 2025, with $11.4 billion coming from Starlink. The satellite internet business is widely viewed as the company’s primary profit engine.
Analysts highlighting the company’s strengths point to its vertically integrated model, which spans rocket production, launch operations, satellite deployment, and network control. This structure is seen as a competitive advantage that would be difficult for rivals to replicate.
Narrative vs fundamentals
The valuation divide underscores a broader disagreement over how to assess a company driven largely by future potential. Optimistic projections depend heavily on the success of long-term initiatives in AI and global connectivity, while more cautious models focus on the existing launch and satellite businesses.
This tension leaves traders balancing two competing forces: a powerful growth narrative tied to Musk’s leadership and disruption potential, and traditional financial metrics grounded in cash flow and execution risk.
Market backdrop adds uncertainty
The broader market environment may also influence early trading. Recent AAII survey data shows bearish sentiment at 47.7%, well above the historical average, signaling a more cautious tone among retail participants. Meanwhile, the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) has climbed to 19.87, indicating rising expectations of short-term turbulence.
Historical data suggests volatility is likely. A review of major tech IPOs shows a median drawdown of 54% within the first year, with fewer than half trading above their debut price after 12 months.
Momentum and sentiment likely to drive early trading
Given strong oversubscription and high-profile leadership, early price action may be driven more by momentum and sentiment than fundamentals. Musk’s public communications remain a key variable, with the potential to shift market behavior rapidly.
For now, the strong demand signals that the growth narrative is attracting significant capital. Whether that momentum can be sustained will depend on execution, market conditions, and how quickly expectations align with measurable results.
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