Robinhood has begun moving a significant share of its prediction market activity onto its own exchange, marking a structural shift that could reshape how these markets operate. The company’s Rothera Exchange processed tens of millions of contracts during the 2026 World Cup, including 44.2 million trades on June 12 worth about $24.4 million and 69.7 million a day later valued near $20.9 million.
The transition signals Robinhood’s push to internalize trade execution and settlement, reducing dependence on external platforms while capturing more revenue per transaction.
Rothera launch follows regulatory acquisition
The in-house platform follows Robinhood’s January 2026 acquisition of a 90% stake in derivatives venue MIAXdx alongside Susquehanna. The deal granted regulatory licensing under the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission and enabled the firm to rebrand the venue as Rothera Exchange, with Rothera Clearing handling settlement.
This structure gives Robinhood full control over the trading pipeline, from order routing to final clearing.
Break from Kalshi partnership
Until recently, Robinhood routed event-based contracts through Kalshi under a partnership launched in March 2025. That arrangement combined Robinhood’s front-end trading interface with Kalshi’s infrastructure and generated $147 million in revenue during the first quarter of 2026.
Analysts at Piper Sandler estimated that 25% to 35% of Kalshi’s activity came through Robinhood. The redirection of trades is therefore expected to significantly reduce volume on the third-party platform.
Kalshi has begun expanding into new products, including perpetual futures, which reportedly drew more than $1 billion in trading volume in their first week, signaling rising competition.
World Cup acts as testing ground
The 2026 World Cup served as a launch event for Rothera, with contracts tied to match outcomes, total goals, and tournament winners routed internally rather than through Kalshi. Early volumes suggest the platform is gaining traction during its initial rollout.
Across all major venues, prediction market activity linked to the tournament surpassed $2 billion by June 11, highlighting strong demand for event-based trading products.
Control of users drives strategy
Robinhood’s advantage lies in its access to tens of millions of retail traders using its mobile app. Company data indicates most users are indifferent to the underlying execution venue, allowing the firm to reroute activity seamlessly without altering the user experience.
In the first quarter alone, 8.8 billion event contracts were traded through Robinhood, contributing to a 320% year-over-year increase in “other trading revenues.” With order flow now shifting in-house, the company is positioned to retain fees that were previously shared.
Revenue impact and analyst outlook
Owning exchange infrastructure allows Robinhood to capture the full economics of each trade, a move analysts say could significantly boost earnings. Bernstein has projected that prediction markets could reach an annualized revenue run rate of $586 million by the end of 2026.
The platform has already processed more than 16 billion event contracts year-to-date, exceeding the 12 billion traded across all of 2025.
Industry implications shift toward distribution power
The move underscores a broader shift in prediction markets, where control of user distribution is becoming more important than licensing alone. Platforms with direct access to traders are increasingly able to shape liquidity and price discovery by directing where trades occur.
With plans to expand into contracts tied to elections and economic indicators, Robinhood’s vertically integrated model may accelerate product development and deepen engagement. The shift suggests future competition will center on who controls user flow rather than who simply operates the marketplace.
To see how these shifts impact traders, explore 2026 prediction markets reshaped and adjust your strategy.
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