Maelstrom, the investment fund led by Arthur Hayes, has exited all artificial intelligence-related equities, trimmed digital asset exposure, and increased positions in energy producers, positioning for a potential surge in oil prices and broader market disruption.
Energy outlook drives portfolio shift
The move comes as expectations build that prolonged tensions between the United States and Iran could disrupt supply routes, particularly the Strait of Hormuz, pushing oil prices sharply higher. Rising energy costs are seen as a key driver of inflation, with knock-on effects across financial markets.
Hayes’ strategy assumes that elevated energy prices will compress margins for AI companies and strain global liquidity, creating downside pressure on both equities and cryptocurrencies. In this scenario, Bitcoin is viewed as the only major digital asset with a strong chance of recovery after a wider correction.
Political risk adds pressure to ai sector
The approaching U.S. presidential election is adding another layer of uncertainty. High energy and food prices have become central campaign issues, increasing pressure on policymakers to stabilize costs. Analysts suggest that sustained inflation could shift political rhetoric toward tighter regulation and taxation of AI companies, potentially unsettling equity markets.
Current political betting data indicates Republicans hold a narrow lead in the Senate while facing possible losses in the House. Meanwhile, around 35 competitive congressional districts are seeing inflation and technology-related employment emerge as key themes, fueling debate over AI’s economic impact and potential regulation.
Liquidity concentration raises bubble concerns
Since late 2022, the AI sector has absorbed a significant share of new U.S. dollar liquidity. Debt financing in the space has reached roughly $1.5 trillion, matching the expansion in U.S. M2 money supply over the same period. This concentration has limited capital flows into assets like Bitcoin.
Market performance reflects this imbalance. Bitcoin rose from about $15,000 in 2022 to $125,000 in October 2025, while Nvidia shares increased roughly elevenfold over the same timeframe, highlighting the scale of capital rotation into AI-linked equities.
Multiple risks threaten valuation stability
Three main pressures are now converging on the AI sector:
- rising energy costs that increase operating expenses
- large capital demands tied to expected IPOs from SpaceX, Anthropic, and OpenAI
- potential U.S. regulatory tightening
Together, these factors could lead to valuation compression across technology markets, with spillover effects on cryptocurrencies as liquidity tightens.
Ipo wave may strain market capacity
Upcoming listings are expected to test market absorption. SpaceX’s planned IPO reportedly values the company at around 100 times revenue, with only 4% to 5% of shares initially offered. Similar large-scale listings are anticipated from Anthropic and OpenAI.
From June to September, tradable shares in these companies are projected to expand significantly, potentially flooding the market. Analysts question whether profitability can support such elevated valuations, particularly if macro conditions deteriorate.
Risks extend to financial system and crypto markets
Financial institutions exposed through share-backed loans could face stress if AI equities decline sharply. A steep correction could weaken bank balance sheets, limit lending, and further tighten liquidity.
Under such conditions, Bitcoin and other digital assets may experience additional short-term weakness before stabilizing, potentially supported later by monetary easing.
Fed policy remains key uncertainty
The Federal Reserve’s next moves are likely to shape near-term market direction. Two-year Treasury yields currently sit about 0.5 percentage points above the federal funds rate, indicating expectations of further tightening to combat inflation.
However, Fed Chair Kevin Warsh has signaled openness to rate cuts, citing productivity gains from technological advances. Markets broadly expect rates to remain unchanged at the June meeting, though a hawkish stance could intensify financial tightening.
Energy bet reflects supply constraints
Maelstrom’s increased exposure to energy producers is based on projections that global oil and gas inventories are at multi-year lows. Even in the event of a ceasefire, rebuilding reserves could sustain upward price pressure.
The fund has sold all AI-related equities and non-core tokens, including HYPE, NEAR, WLD, and ZEC, while retaining Bitcoin and Ethereum. It is also using derivatives to hedge against near-term volatility.
Energy data suggests that if U.S.–Iran tensions persist, Brent crude could exceed $150 per barrel in the coming months. In that environment, energy producers may outperform, while sectors dependent on low power costs face earnings pressure. Hayes plans to reassess conditions in September before considering a return to technology and cryptocurrency markets.
Worried about Hayes’ AI exit and Bitcoin’s path? See how BTC behaves in macro shocks in this detailed analysis.
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