Kalshi is in talks to raise fresh funding at a valuation of about $40 billion, with the round potentially closing as early as the third quarter of 2026, according to people familiar with the matter. The company declined to comment.
valuation surge driven by rapid growth
If completed, the new round would mark a sharp jump from Kalshi’s $22 billion valuation in its $1 billion Series F raise last month, led by Coatue with participation from Sequoia Capital, Andreessen Horowitz, and Morgan Stanley. The company had been valued at $5 billion as recently as October 2025 following a $300 million Series D.
The potential near-doubling in valuation reflects strong demand for federally regulated platforms that allow direct financial exposure to event outcomes. Monthly trading volume has surged more than 300% over the past year, supporting the rapid repricing.
trading activity hits records
Kalshi’s trading activity continues to outpace rivals. The platform recorded $21.1 billion in trading volume so far this month, compared with roughly $9.7 billion combined for Polymarket and its U.S. operations.
Sports-related contracts are driving much of the activity, accounting for around 65% of total volume. On June 21, daily notional trading volume exceeded $1.5 billion for the first time, signaling a fast-growing and highly active user base.
ipo plans under consideration
The company has also begun early discussions with investment banks بشأن a potential initial public offering. It recently surpassed $2 billion in annualized revenue, though Chief Executive Mansour said an IPO is not expected this year.
legal battle highlights regulatory tensions
Kalshi, which operates under Commodity Futures Trading Commission oversight, is facing mounting legal challenges from state regulators. This week, the company filed a lawsuit against Illinois over new legislation requiring prediction market operators to obtain state licenses and pay a 0.2% fee on digital asset transactions involving Illinois-based users.
Kalshi argues that such state-level requirements conflict with federal jurisdiction. The case is part of a broader dispute, with the CFTC also pursuing legal action against multiple states to defend its authority over these markets.
institutions and market structure in focus
The outcome of these legal battles may shape how prediction markets operate across the United States. A shift toward state-level control could introduce fragmented regulations and new costs, potentially affecting how traders engage with these products.
At the same time, institutional participation is rising quickly, with trading volume from professional firms increasing by about 800% over the past six months. This trend points to growing use of event-based contracts for hedging economic and political risks, adding another layer of momentum to the sector’s expansion.
Explore how evolving regulation shapes crypto and prediction markets in 2026—read this deep dive on prediction markets next.
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