Iran said to finalize war plans as ceasefire with U.S. nears expiry
Iran on high alert as talks stall
Iran has reportedly completed military preparations for a possible return to open conflict with the United States as a ceasefire deadline approaches, according to semi-official Tasnim News Agency.
Tehran’s officials say rising demands from Washington and a declared maritime blockade have blocked further progress in negotiations. Political and territorial disputes remain unresolved, and both sides are described as showing little flexibility on core issues.
Sources cited in local reports say Iranian forces have been on heightened alert for the past two weeks, redeploying units and identifying new strike targets. The country’s defense command has reportedly ordered an immediate response if hostilities resume, with a stated aim of inflicting heavy costs on U.S. and Israeli positions early in any confrontation.
Market calm under pressure
The looming end of the ceasefire is already filtering back into global markets, which had briefly priced in a more stable outlook.
Analysts note that in late March, expectations of a durable truce helped push down prices of oil and other assets linked to war risk. Trading patterns at the time appeared unusually well-timed with early signs of diplomatic progress, raising questions about access to privileged assessments or detailed intelligence.
With the ceasefire window closing, traders are once again weighing the prospect of renewed conflict in a region central to global energy supply. Any escalation could quickly drive energy prices higher and spark a rapid move into safe-haven assets.
Volatility, safe havens and risk sentiment
Market models now point to wide price swings as sentiment oscillates between hopes for extended peace and fears of a breakdown. A sudden deterioration in talks could strain liquidity, disrupt regional trade routes, and trigger sharp price gaps across major exchanges.
The Cboe Volatility Index (VIX), Wall Street’s benchmark “fear gauge,” has already illustrated how sensitive markets are to the diplomatic track. During the most intense phase of the standoff in late March, the VIX spiked to an intraday high of 31.65, signaling deep concern. Subsequent ceasefire headlines saw the index fall as much as 18.4% in a single session, underscoring the tight link between geopolitical news and risk appetite.
Rising geopolitical tension typically prompts a flight to safety, with capital leaving higher-risk assets and moving into perceived havens. Historically, gold and the U.S. dollar tend to strengthen during periods of military uncertainty, while more cyclical or growth-oriented segments come under pressure.
Energy markets on frontline of risk
Energy prices remain the most direct transmission channel from the conflict to the broader economy.
Earlier in the crisis, Brent crude climbed to nearly $115 per barrel on fears of disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint through which about 20% of global crude oil and natural gas flows. Any threatened or actual closure would carry significant inflation risk and complicate monetary policy in import-dependent economies.
The recent two-week period of relative de-escalation allowed crude prices to pull back, but they remain highly sensitive to headlines out of Tehran and Washington. Fresh signs of military action or tighter blockades would likely push oil and related benchmarks sharply higher.
Pressure on growth assets, support for havens
Technology-heavy and high-volatility segments of the market have proven especially vulnerable to the conflict’s ebb and flow.
During the initial phase of the confrontation, indices such as the Nasdaq slipped into a technical correction, dropping more than 10% from recent highs as traders reassessed growth prospects in a more fragile geopolitical environment. Subsequent optimism around a ceasefire drove a rebound of over 10%, erasing those losses but highlighting how quickly sentiment can reverse.
If hostilities resume, risk appetite in these segments is likely to weaken again. Safe-haven demand for gold, the U.S. dollar and other defensive assets would be expected to strengthen, while sectors reliant on stable funding conditions and strong growth expectations could face renewed selling pressure.
For now, markets are trading in the shadow of a fragile truce. The nearer the ceasefire deadline comes without a diplomatic breakthrough, the greater the likelihood of sharper price swings and a renewed pivot toward safety across global portfolios.
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