Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan said the debate over bitcoin’s price floor may be missing the bigger picture, as major financial firms present widely different estimates while still broadly expecting a recovery phase ahead. Bitcoin is trading near $64,500 after rebounding from multi-month lows, with forecasts for its potential bottom ranging from $30,000 to nearly $60,000.
Wide divergence in price floor estimates
Recent research highlights sharp disagreements across institutions. Galaxy Digital’s model, which tracks 13 indicators including miner behavior, market sentiment, and the 200-week moving average, suggests a base-case floor between $40,000 and $46,000. However, its broader range stretches from $30,000 to $54,000, reflecting uncertainty about whether key bottom signals have fully emerged.
NYDIG, using comparisons with past market cycles, found that while current conditions resemble previous bottoms in some ways, the absence of a clear capitulation phase indicates the downturn may not be finished. At the same time, the firm noted that increasing institutional participation could be reshaping traditional cycle patterns.
Structural shift from ETFs and institutional demand
A competing view argues that structural changes in the market may be limiting downside risk. The launch of spot bitcoin ETFs has introduced a consistent source of demand, with cumulative inflows exceeding $58 billion since early 2024. This steady buying pressure may be establishing a higher floor than in previous cycles.
Still, ETF flows remain volatile. After strong inflows earlier this year, recent outflows signal shifting sentiment among large market participants, making fund flows a key indicator for traders watching near-term direction.
Standard chartered signals higher floor
Standard Chartered has taken a more optimistic stance, revising its outlook to place bitcoin’s bottom near $59,000. The bank expects the price to climb toward $100,000 by year-end, citing easing ETF-related pressures and supportive macro developments. This marks a shift from its earlier, more bearish revision.
Miners and macro pressures weigh on outlook
ضغط factors persist beneath the surface. Mining profitability remains under strain, with production costs estimated around $84,000 per bitcoin, well above current prices. This pressure has already led to a noticeable drop in mining activity, signaling stress among less efficient operators.
At the same time, broader macroeconomic conditions continue to influence sentiment. Elevated U.S. debt levels and uncertainty around interest rates are shaping capital flows, with some funds rotating into other high-growth sectors.
Focus shifts from bottom to recovery
Hougan argued that despite differing short-term forecasts, most major analyses align on one point: the market is likely to recover once current conditions stabilize. He suggested that the more relevant question is no longer where the absolute bottom lies, but whether the next major upcycle is approaching.
He added that long-term drivers—including rising government debt, demand for inflation hedges, declining trust in centralized systems, and expanding institutional access—continue to support bitcoin’s broader role in global portfolios. However, risks such as regulatory shifts and emerging technologies like quantum computing remain key uncertainties.
Hougan has previously suggested bitcoin could eventually approach $1 million if adoption as a store of value grows in line with gold. He also described early 2026 as part of a late-stage crypto winter, indicating that current market conditions may be approaching a turning point.
Wondering if BTC’s next move is up? Explore detailed outlooks in BTC’s road to $100K now.
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