HYPE price surpasses Solana SOL in rally

Hyperliquid’s native token HYPE traded above Solana’s SOL on Wednesday, changing hands at $73.15 versus Solana’s $72.35, even as a broader cryptocurrency sell-off dragged Bitcoin and Ethereum down by double digits over the past week.

HYPE set a fresh all-time high of $74.67 on Tuesday and is up about 24% over the past month. Over the same period, Solana has fallen nearly 14%, touching its lowest levels since late 2023.

Market cap gap narrows, but Solana still leads

Solana still maintains a higher market capitalization, at roughly $42 billion compared with Hyperliquid’s $16 billion. However, that gap has tightened in recent weeks as activity on Hyperliquid’s derivatives platform accelerated.

Hyperliquid now controls an estimated 70% to 80% of the on-chain perpetual futures market, according to industry data. The exchange is generating more than $50 million in monthly fees, around 22 times higher than rival derivatives protocol GMX, underscoring the size of its derivatives franchise relative to competitors.

Perpetual futures volume hits records

In May, Hyperliquid’s share of global perpetual futures volume climbed to a record 6.63%. Its HIP-3 perpetual products alone generated more than $62 billion in trading volume that month, and the exchange’s share versus larger centralized rivals reached a peak over the same period.

The HIP-3 framework, which allows permissionless listing of new markets, has broadened Hyperliquid’s offering beyond crypto-native assets. Open interest in perpetual contracts linked to real-world assets such as oil and gold doubled in two months, reaching a record $2.65 billion by late May 2026.

Growing institutional and retail participation

Institutional product launches have started to track on-chain traction. On Wednesday, Grayscale introduced the Hyperliquid Staking ETF under the ticker HYPG, joining earlier Hyperliquid products from 21Shares and Bitwise. Those two funds have already seen nearly $600 million in cumulative trading volume and more than $136 million in net inflows within three weeks.

Grayscale’s fund carries a 0.29% fee, a level that indicates growing competition among issuers targeting HYPE exposure. Spot exchange-traded products now hold about 1% of HYPE’s total market capitalization.

Retail participation is also climbing. Over the past week, the number of traders following HYPE on social platform Stocktwits surged by about 1,600%, pointing to a rapid pickup in retail interest alongside institutional flows.

Analyst models and market comparisons

On Tuesday, CoinShares published a research report proposing a valuation model for Hyperliquid. The report argues that activity on the protocol directly affects HYPE demand via its token buyback mechanism and sets a base-case price target of roughly $147 per token by 2031.

Research partner Pan at venture firm 1kx has compared HYPE’s market trajectory with earlier cycles seen in Ethereum, BNB, and Solana. Yet the scale gap remains large: with Ethereum’s market capitalization above $220 billion, Hyperliquid would need to expand by more than fourteen times to challenge the second-largest cryptocurrency.

Market sentiment and high-profile bets

BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes has added to the narrative by publicly betting that HYPE will outperform other top-ten digital assets by year-end. Hayes has said he expects HYPE to overtake Solana’s market capitalization during the current cycle. Wallet data show he holds more than 26,000 HYPE tokens, aligning his public calls with a sizable personal position.

Valuation metrics highlight future expectations

Hyperliquid’s fully diluted valuation, which assumes all tokens are in circulation, briefly exceeded Solana’s on Wednesday. Hyperliquid’s FDV reached about $54.36 billion, edging past Solana’s $54.02 billion. That metric suggests the market is pricing in strong long-term growth for Hyperliquid, even though most HYPE tokens have not yet entered circulation.

Roughly 75% of the total HYPE supply remains locked or subject to vesting schedules. As those tokens are released over time, they could create additional selling pressure and alter the token’s supply-demand balance.

Risk profile and structural considerations

Despite the rapid growth, Hyperliquid’s architecture carries a distinct risk profile compared with more established blockchains. The platform’s software is not open-source, limiting external review of its code and governance mechanics. In addition, it operates with a more concentrated validator set than many other networks, potentially increasing centralization and operational risk.

These structural factors, alongside the large portion of locked supply, form a key backdrop to HYPE’s recent price move above Solana and the growing attention from both institutional and retail traders.